STATE OF PLAY NSW 2018-2022: Trapped In Harm's Way

 

Global Climate Change is not something that will happen on some vague future date, it is occurring right now and is being experienced by regions and populations around the world.

Globally the Earth has warmed by at least an average 1.1° Celsius (1.9° Fahrenheit) since 1880 according to U.S. NASA analysis (2022) - with the majority of the warming occurring since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15 to 0.20°C per decade. Australia has warmed on average by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910 according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2020) – with the majority of this warming occurring since the 1960s. In NSW, the average temperature is about 1.4°C higher than in 1910, with 2018 and 2019 being the warmest years on record according to NSW EPA (2022).

The complex interactions such warming is causing affects atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns, seasons of the year and regional/local weather patterns. Which means that ongoing change can no longer be reliably separated out into incidents caused by “climate change” and incidents caused by ordinary “weather”.

One of the ways changing climate is being experienced is by an increase in frequency and/or intensity of what are often described as either “adverse weather” events or “natural disasters”.

This post looks at natural disaster declarations in New South Wales over the last five years as an indication of the level at which our communities are becoming trapped in harm’s way by our geography.

Disaster declarations are a during or after event acknowledgement of significant damage to natural and built environments, industry and businesses within one or more of the state’s 128 local government areas.

Natural disaster declarations

A Disaster Declaration is a frequently updated list of Local Government Areas (LGA) that have been impacted by a natural disaster. With a disaster declaration for their area, affected communities and individuals can access a range of special assistance measures.

Disaster declarations are issued by the NSW Government and incorporate an Australian Government reference number (AGRN).

NSW DISASTER DECLARATIONS 1 JULY 2018 to 14 SEPTEMBER 2022

1 July 2018 to 30 June 2019

• Shoalhaven bushfires: 11 August 2018 onwards

• Richmond Valley, Lismore and Kyogle bushfires: 12 August 2018 onwards

• Clarence Valley and Glen Innes Severn bushfires: 14 August 2018 onwards

• Cessnock and Port Stephens bushfires: 15 August 2018 onwards

• Bega Valley and Eurobodalla bushfires: 15 August 2018 onwards

• Tamworth (Rockview) Bushfire: 30 October 2018 onwards

• Port Stephens and Cessnock Bushfires: 22 November 2018 onwards

• Armidale (Melrose) Bushfire: 1 December 2018 onwards

• NSW Storms and Floods: 13 December 2018 onwards – including Clarence Valley LGA

• NSW Storms and Floods: 20 December 2018 [extending the declaration] – including Ballina & Clarence Valley LGAs

• Glen Innes Severn (Highland Creek) Bushfire: 25 December 2018 onwards

• Tamworth (Halls Creek Road) Bushfire: 3 January 2019 onwards

• Newcastle (Kooragang Island) Bushfires: 5 January 2019 onwards

• Parkes and Cabonne (Curembenya) Bushfire: 5 January 2019 onwards

• Inland New South Wales Storms and Floods: 11 January 2019 onwards

• Snowy Valleys Bushfires: 17 January 2019 onwards

• Parkes and Greater Hume Storms: 22 and 23 January 2019 onwards

• Hilltops and Cootamundra-Gundagai Storms and Floods: 5 February 2019 onwards

• Eastern NSW Storms: 8 February 2019 onwards

• Singleton and Muswellbrook Bushfires: 11 February 2019 onwards

• Tamworth Regional and Upper Hunter Bushfires: 11 February 2019 onwards

• Northern NSW Bushfires: 11 February 2019 onwards – including Kyogle LGA

• Tenterfield Bushfires: 9 March 2019 onwards

• Central West and Orana Storms and Floods: 29 March 2019 onwards

• NSW – Carrathool Floods: 22 April 2019 onwards

• Berrigan Shire Storms – 29 June 2019 onwards

1 July 2019 to 30 June 2020

• NSW North Coast Bushfires: Commencing 18 July 2019 onwards – including Clarence Valley, Kyogle & Richmond Valley

• NSW Bushfires: 31 August 2019 onwards – including Ballina, Byron, Clarence Valley, Kyogle, Lismore, Richmond Valley & Tweed LGAs

• Sydney and Southern Highlands Storms: 5 September 2019 onwards

• NSW Storms: 26 November 2019 onwards

• NSW Storms and Floods: 15 January 2020 onwards – including Ballina, Byron, Clarence Valley, Kyogle, Lismore, Richmond Valley & Tweed LGAs

• Western NSW Floods: 26 February 2020 onwards

• Cabonne Shire Storms and Floods: 25 March 2020 onwards

• Western NSW Storms and Floods: 3 to 4 April 2020

• Western NSW Storms and Floods: 10 to 12 April 2020

1 July 2020 to 30 June 2021

• NSW Storms and Floods: 25 July 2020 onwards

• NSW Storms and Floods: 5 August 2020 onwards

• Central NSW Storms: 18 August 2020

• NSW storms and floods: 20 October 2020 onwards

• NSW Storms: 28 November 2020 onwards

• NSW Storms: 2 December 2020 onwards

• NSW Storms and Floods: 10 December 2020 onwards

• NSW Storms and Floods: 2 January 2021 onwards

• NSW Storms and Floods: 19 February 2021 onwards

• Eurobodalla Storms from 26 December 2020 onwards

• NSW Storms and Floods 10 March 2021 onwards – including Ballina, Byron, Clarence Valley, Kyogle, Lismore, Richmond Valley & Tweed LGAs

• Snowy Valleys Storms from 3 February 2021 onwards

• Southern NSW Storms and Floods from 5 May 2021 onwards

• NSW Storms from 10 June 2021 onwards

1 July 2021 to 30 June 2022

• NSW storms and floods from 16 July 2021 onwards

• Armidale storm from October 14 2021 onwards

• North East NSW severe weather from 20 October onwards

• NSW storms and floods from 22 August onwards

• Severe weather event across NSW from 23 October onwards

• NSW severe weather and flooding 9 November 2021 onwards – including Kyogle, Lismore & Richmond Valley

• Narrabri storm and tornado of 30 September 2021

• NSW storms and floods from 30 July 2021 onwards

• Northern Beaches severe storm as of 19 December 2021

• Lithgow severe storm and flash flooding as of 11 January

• Southern NSW storms and floods from 5 January 2022 onwards

• NSW Severe Weather and Flooding from 22 February 2022 onwards – including Ballina, Byron, Clarence Valley, Kyogle, Lismore, Richmond Valley & Tweed LGAs

• Broken Hill Severe Thunderstorm 15 March 2022

• Wingecarribee Severe Storm - 19 April 2022

1 July 2022 to 4 August 2022 (financial year 2022-23)

• NSW Severe Weather and Flooding from 27 June 2022 onwards

• NSW Severe Weather and Flooding from 4 August 2022 onwards

• NSW Severe Weather and Flooding from 14 September 2022 onwards

Note: 

The Clarence Valley Local Government Area (LGA) has been part of a NSW Natural Disaster Declaration 8 times in 4 consecutive financial years - declarations occurring between August 2018 to February-March 2022.

Kyogle Shire LGA has also been part of a NSW Natural Disaster Declaration 8 times, Richmond Valley 7 times, Lismore City LGA 6 times, Ballina Shire 5 times, Byron Shire LGA 4 times and Tweed Shire 4 times, between August 2018 to February-March 2022.

More than 60 per cent of businesses in Byron Bay are now relying on JobKeeper to stay afloat

The Sydney Morning Herald, 26 July 2020:

In Byron Bay, sales of a $9.30 large green G-Force smoothie reveal how the COVID-19 wave has dumped on the NSW tourist town. 

In good times, with 2.4 million visitors a year ranging from backpackers to festival goers and others looking for yoga, surf and a healthy lifestyle, Byron can support six smoothie businesses. 

One of them, Sweet Byron, would sell 19 of these large green smoothies a day.   

Then coronavirus hit, forcing the closure of domestic and international borders. Byron's foreign visitors dried up, and its English language schools nearly emptied. 

 COVID-19 caused the cancellation of weddings and events such as the Writers Festival and the Splendour in the Grass misic festival, which usually provide a boost in the slow winter months. 

Ninety per cent of shops, hotels and restaurants in the town closed. When they reopened before school holidays, the streets were empty and Sweet Byron was lucky if it sold two Gforce Smoothies. 

Those students and backpackers who had remained headed north when the Queensland border re-opened earlier this month. 

More than 60 per cent of businesses in Byron are now relying on JobKeeper to stay afloat, according to a map by data analytics company Taylor Fry released last week. 

This is the most in any local government area in Australia and double the number in capital cities. 

Without JobKeeper Mika Cohen, the owner of the Sweet Byron smoothie shop, said his business wouldn't survive. 

Smoothie sales bounced back during the recent school holidays after coronavirus travel restrictions lifted and the town filled with families who followed the sun north. 

Mr Cohen was back to selling 8 Gforce Smoothies a day, still less than half the number he sold pre-COVID. 

With nearly all of Byron's economy tied to tourism, hospitality and the creative arts, Byron mayor Simon Richardson said the pandemic has delivered a "triple whammy". 

"It is really dangerous times for us," he said. 

Hotel bookings looked healthy for summer, but if the town doesn't get that "fattening" he feared it could "lurch into real danger". 

Hotel owner Christian Millett said Byron had been a stable market all year long, in the past. But after coronavirus shut down weddings and festivals, Mr Millett said he would not have been been able to justify keeping his doors open outside of school holidays if he wasn't receiving JobKeeper.....

Taylor Fry's analysis found smaller firms in retail, hospitality, manufacturing and construction sectors are especially dependent on JobKeeper to retain their staff...... 

When the tourism dried up, it affected the rest of the region with "all the pork and tomatoes, macadamia and the mueslis which aren't being bought".

Cr Richardson said there was a "false sense of affluence" associated with Byron because of its multimillion-dollar beach houses and movie-star residents like Chris Hemsworth. 

"For every $10 million house at Wattegos Beach there are 10 homes that are in some of the poorest areas in NSW," he said. 

Four areas in the LGA are among the most disadvantaged 20 per cent in Australia, and two are among the most affluent..... 

Rents are also high, and Cr Richardson said he has seen more people couch surfing after losing their jobs. A shopkeeper said his landlord wanted to restore rents to pre-COVID levels after providing discounts earlier: "In this time, we can't afford the full rent for the premises ... because there are 60 to 40 per cent fewer tourists." 

Taylor Fry's principal Alan Greenfield said without JobKeeper he was nervous about the future of regional tourist towns, especially if restrictions on travel continued. "If locals can't see a future where they live, they might be inclined to move away." 

Simon Westaway, the executive director of the Australian Tourism Industry Council, said the impact of COVID-19 on his 10,000 members had been "diabolical". Unlike other industries, it had been hard for tourist operators to "pivot" to other business. 

Even if people could travel, the impact of continuing uncertainty over jobs and rising mortgage stress – estimated to grow to $200 billion from $60 billon now – meant visitors were not necessarily buying the most expensive "smoothie". 

"You put all these figures together, and you go wowie kazowie, who is in a mindset to have a decent holiday? Let alone if you are allowed out [by governments]. " 

Although business was down now, surf school director and founder of Let's Go Surfing Brenda Miley said Byron was an aspirational place that will bounce back. "Everyone wants to go there. It is well worn trek from Bondi to Byron, and that all came together last school holidays." 

 She thinks it will be booked out next summer if government restrictions on travel aren't in place. "People who were planning to go skiing in Colorado or France are so happy to go to Byron and surf for a week or two," she said.

Percentage of NSW Northern Rivers Businesses relying on JobKeeper Payments by Local Government Area - as of 22 July 2020 

• Byron 60.39%
• Tweed 47.79%
• Ballina 39.56%
• Clarence Valley 34.52%
• Lismore 35.05%
• Richmond Valley 27.45%
• Kyogle 21.3%