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La Niña's arrival in the tropical Pacific may herald high flow river levels on the NSW coast during December 2021

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM):

Climate outlook overview, 18 November 2021:

• December to February rainfall is likely to be above median for the eastern half of the eastern States, with highest chances along eastern Queensland.

• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall (in the top 20% of historical records) for December to February for parts of the eastern States (1.5 to 2.5 times the usual chance).

• December to February maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for much of northern and western Australia, as well as parts of the south-east. Below median daytime temperatures are likely for eastern NSW.

• Minimum temperatures for December to February are likely to be warmer than median for most of Australia, with southern WA and western SA having roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than median nights.

• The developing La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, and the La Niña (SAM) phase are likely influencing the above median rainfall outlooks.

 Climate Driver Update, 23 November 2021:

La Niña established in the tropical Pacific

La Niña has become established in the tropical Pacific. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been raised to LA NIÑA. Climate models suggest this La Niña will be short-lived, persisting until the late southern hemisphere summer or early autumn 2022. La Niña events increase the chance of above average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer.

Several indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) now show clear La Niña patterns. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are close to La Niña thresholds, with climate model outlooks expecting them to cool further. In the atmosphere, cloud and wind patterns are typical of La Niña, indicating the atmosphere is now responding to, and reinforcing, the changes observed in the ocean.

The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is approaching its end, with oceanic index values in the neutral range. However, cloud and wind patterns across the eastern Indian Ocean suggest some IOD influence remains. All models indicate the IOD will remain neutral for the coming months, consistent with its typical seasonal cycle. A negative IOD increases the chances of above-average spring rainfall for much of southern and eastern Australia.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over the Maritime Continent region at weak to moderate strength. The MJO is forecast to progress eastwards across the Maritime Continent and into the western Pacific over the coming fortnight, increasing the chances of above average rainfall across northern Australia and the Maritime Continent, to Australia's north.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has generally been positive for several weeks. It is forecast to remain at positive levels to the end of the year. A positive SAM during summer typically brings wetter weather to eastern parts of Australia, but drier than average conditions for western Tasmania.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.44 °C for the 1910–2019 period. Rainfall across northern Australia during its wet season (October–April) has increased since the late 1990s. In recent decades there has been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.

Has Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison lost the confidence of his parliamentary party and its coalition partner?

Since late October 2021 the issue of Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison's leadership, personal integrity and the quality of his decision making has quickly moved past the rumour mongering, onto the international stage and into both Houses of the Australian Parliament. 

The voting public were also beginning to show their disapproval.

The Conversation, 15 November 2021:

52% (up two) were dissatisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance, and 44% (down two) were satisfied, for a net approval of -8, down four points. This continues Morrison’s slump from his pandemic highs. Six months ago, Morrison’s net approval in Newspoll was +20, and last November his net approval was +36.

Members of his own backbench have gone from muttering their discontent from behind closed doors, to actively backgrounding against him and, onto openly defying him inside and outside of the Parliament. 

7am Podcast, 19 November 2021: 

The federal Coalition government holds office by the barest of margins - just one seat. Now, a popular and high profile Liberal incumbent has announced he won’t be recontesting his electorate, throwing the party’s election preparations into jeopardy. Today, Paul Bongiorno on why the Liberal MP abandoning Scott Morrison thinks Anthony Albanese might be a better Prime Minister for the country. 

John Alexander Liberal MP for Bennelong had recently announced he is not standing at the 2022 federal election. He is understood to be tired of partisan politics where winning is everything but good policy in the national interest runs a poor last. Unnamed parliamentary colleagues are saying that privately Alexander is scathing of the leadership of the government of Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Barnaby Joyce, believing they put the government’s self-interest above everything. 

Full audio here.

On 21 November 2021 @KafkaVoltaire released this summary of a 'backgrounding' he received from two sitting LNP MPs:

On 22 November, the first day sitting day of the short period before Parliament goes into recess until 2022 saw the Prime Minister publicly caught out knowingly misleading the House and, in the Senate members of his government were openly threatening him with political mayhem when five Coalition senators crossed the floor to vote for a bill banning mandatory COVID-19 vaccinations. 

By 23 November the news cycle was beginning to put his feet to the fire....

The Hawaii holiday is one headache, but Scott Morrison has bigger problems in the Parliament. @latingle reports. #abc730 pic.twitter.com/iomrKI6yf1

— abc730 (@abc730) November 23, 2021

There is now speculation that Scott Morrison might be forced to change his preferred election date to March 2022 in order to block fellow Liberal and Minister for Defence Peter Dutton's ambitions to become prime minister.

Northern NSW starved of timely relevant COVD-19 information by Perrottet Government

 

Byron Bay local government area
IMAGE: .idcommunity 

Byron Bay local government area covers 566.6 sq kms with an est. resident population of 35,773 men, women and children and a population density of 63.13 person per sq km.

 

As of 14 November 2021 only 78.7% of the population 16 years of age and older were fully vaccinated. On 21 November the fully vaccinated rate had risen to 80.9%.

On 17 November 2021in NSW postcode 2481 NSW Health recorded a confirmed COVID-19 case in the Byron Bay local government area. The source of the individual’s infection is listed as “Overseas”. Presumably that person entered Northern NSW sometime on the afternoon of 16 November 2021.

On the same date another confirmed case for NSW postcode 2483 in the Byron Bay local government area was recorded and the source of that individual’s infection was listed as “interstate”

On 19 November 2021 in NSW postcode 2481 NSW Health recorded a confirmed COVID-19 case in the Byron Bay local government area.

Then again on 22 November 2021 in NSW postcode 2483 NSW Health recorded a confirmed COVID-19 case in the Byron Bay local government area.

The source of individual infection cannot be determined for 19 & 22 November 2021 confirmed cases because NSW Health has discontinued daily source of infection database updates as of 19 November 2021. At the same time it was announced the daily location of confirmed cases database was also being discontinued.

A Northern NSW Local Health District media release on 24 November revealed a confirmed COVID-19 case recorded for 23 November 2021 which is referred to as “a household contact of an existing case”.

News of the Byron Bay "Aquarius" backpackers hostel lockdown did not become public knowledge until Wednesday 24 November 2021, when the state MLA for Ballina released the information on social media.

Given that NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has previously stated that he not NSW Health will control release of COVID-19 information, one can only assume it is at his direction that rural & regional NSW is being staved of information concerning infection spread within districts, cities, towns and villages.

ABC News, 25 November 2021:

A backpacker hostel in Byron Bay on the NSW north coast has been placed into a snap seven-day lockdown after a positive COVID case and 84 close contacts were identified.

Police confirmed they were "assisting NSW Health at a hostel on Lawson Street in Byron Bay" and have referred any further inquiries to NSW Health.

The ABC has contacted NSW Health but officials there have yet to provide any further information about the operation underway at the backpackers.

News of the positive case came as thousands of school students descended on the north coast for the traditional schoolies celebrations.

Ms Smith says food and health support is being provided to the dozens of guests who are now in lockdown at the backpackers.

Ms Smith posted at statement about the situation to her verified Facebook page on Wednesday night.

"I'm closely monitoring a situation in Byron Bay where a positive COVID-19 case and 84 close contacts have been identified at Aquarius Backpackers in Byron Bay," her statement read.

"Police are monitoring compliance 24/7 over the next seven days.

"My thoughts are with everyone in that situation as it will be a tough time and I will keep checking to make sure that people are getting the support they need."

Coalition Government #COVIDIOTS force Morrison into yet another backflip - on vaccine mandates

 

The Saturday Paper, POST, 23 November 2021:

"Prime Minister Scott Morrison has backflipped on vaccine mandates, following a rebellion of Coalition senators that threatens to derail his parliamentary agenda.

What we know:

• Five Coalition senators crossed the floor to vote for a failed One Nation bill that would have overridden state government vaccine mandates (The Age); 
• Two of the five, Gerard Rennick and Alex Antic, have threatened to withhold their support for all government bills over the issue;
• To defuse the rebellion Morrison declared business owners should set their own rules on vaccinations for customers and staff, in a dramatic reversal of previous support for mandates (The New Daily); 
• The prime minister targeted rules in Queensland in particular preventing unvaccinated people from visiting cafes;
• The opposition noted Morrison was singling out a Labor state government rule also applied by the Coalition government in NSW, and had repeatedly backed vaccine mandates for workplaces previously;
• Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie unleashed a scathing speech in opposition to One Nation’s vaccine bill, declaring “Being held accountable for your own actions isn't called discrimination – it is called being a bloody adult” (SBS); 
• It comes amidst a rising tide of protests against vaccines and lockdowns globally (Crikey)." 

This year more than 1,500 kilometres of fire trails on NSW Crown Land and surrounding land have been inspected by helicopter State-wide, to ensure they are in good condition for firefighters.

 

Great Lakes Advocate, 23 November 2021:

In preparation of the 2021-22 bushfire season fire trails on Crown Land along the Mid North Coast have been closely inspected.

The helicopter aerial inspections, supported by on-the-ground trail maintenance, have been conducted by the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment - Crown Lands in conjunction with the Rural Fire Service (RFS) and Soil Conservation Service.

This year more than 1500 kilometres of fire trails on Crown Land and surrounding land have been inspected by helicopter State-wide, to ensure they are in good condition for firefighters.

Mid North and North coast inspections have included fire trails in the Clarence Valley, Coffs Harbour, Kempsey, Kyogle, Mid Coast, Nambucca Valley, Port Macquarie Hastings, Port Stephens, Richmond Vale, and Tweed local government areas (LGA).

Aerial inspections are more efficient than four-wheel-drive inspections in remote and less accessible areas or where fire trails cross multiple land boundaries, cutting inspection times from months to weeks.

Fire trails are inspected and then any identified maintenance undertaken to ensure firefighting crews and their vehicles can quickly access blazes if they break out, to protect property and residents.

RFS, Fire & Rescue NSW, National Parks and Wildlife Service, and Forestry Corporation, all rely on properly maintained fire trails.

The aerial inspections identify fallen trees requiring removal; erosion or vegetation growth that has impacted trails; and creek crossings require repair.

The helicopter is also fitted with a camera to help record where follow-up work is needed.....

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison's frequent lying to Australian voters is reprehensible but deliberately misleading Parliament is beyond the pale. However, when he knowingly mislead the House last Monday there were no repercussions

Not once but twice in the space of of less than two minutes Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison knowingly mislead the Australian Parliament.

This was not acknowledged by The Speaker Tony Smith (in the chair on his final day as Speaker in the House of Representatives) when Morrison did not correct his lie when given the opportunity at 15:11 (2:11pm). 

However, in what appears to have been an agreement between the prime minister and himself The Speaker was careful to vacate his chair to a Liberal Member of the Speaker's Panel and leave the Chamber before 16:00 when Morrison again rose to his feet - this time in a near empty House - stating "I wish to add to an answer". 

The Speaker was wise to do so. Because what Morrison said was not a full and frank admission of an untruth, but rather a version of 'what I really meant to say to Parliament in Question today'. [See NOTES 1.] 

Mainstream media quickly noticed the "lie"........ 

Political Editor Katharine Murphy, writing in The Guardian, 22 November 2021: 

I could open with pro-forma generosity, noting politicians are humans, and they, like the rest of us, sometimes forget things, and have rushes of blood to the head. 

 But honestly, we are well past that. 

We are facing the unnerving proposition that Australia’s 30th prime minister struggles to differentiate fact from fiction. What happened on Monday was deeply disconcerting, and all the more troubling because this conduct is an established pattern of behaviour. 

Labor came into question time with a simple objective: to pin Scott Morrison as a liar. We have entered the final two parliamentary sitting weeks of 2021, the federal election is now only a few months away, and Labor has a narrow window of opportunity to try to first define, then rapid set Morrison’s negative characteristics with Australian voters..... 

Questions front-loaded with Morrison’s own conflicting statements came at him thick and fast from the opening of Monday’s session, and unfortunately for the prime minister, there’s an extensive back catalogue to draw on. 

One of the questions related to the events of December 2019. Morrison was asked about his decision to leave Australia during the catastrophic bushfires and holiday with his family in Hawaii. 

The Labor backbencher, Fiona Phillips, bowled her scripted bouncer: “When my electorate was burning, the prime minister’s office told journalists he was not on holiday in Hawaii. Why did the prime minister’s office say that when it wasn’t true?” 

Morrison answered the charge of institutional deception by declaring he had texted Albanese on the plane when he took off for the infamous overseas holiday “and told him where I was going and he was fully aware of where I was travelling with my family”. 

There was a significant problem with Morrison’s self-exoneration. 

It was completely untrue. 

Albanese corrected Morrison and the Hansard record very shortly after. He told the House of Representatives Morrison had texted him at 9.44pm on December 15 2019 to impart the news he was going on leave. 

“He did not tell me where he was going,” the Labor leader said. “He said he was going with his family. I kept that text message confidential, as you do, with private text messages between private phones.”.....

 So why lie? 

And why lie on an issue that even the most disengaged voter in the country would actually remember? 

After Albanese corrected the record, a visibly irritated Morrison then corrected his own untruth while blaming the Labor leader for provoking him. The prime minister acknowledged he had told the opposition leader he was going on holiday (“and that was the important thing”) but he hadn’t told him where he was going. [At that point Morrison did not acknowledge that he hadn't told told Albanese where he was going. See NOTES 2. below] “Mr Speaker [Albanese] chose to politicise that and has done so ever since.” 

An hour or so later, Morrison had another go at trying to clean up. “I wanted to confirm what the leader of the opposition said that in that text I did not tell him the destination of where I was going on leave with my family.” 

“I simply communicated to him that I was taking leave. When I was referring to ‘he knew where I was going and was fully aware I was travelling with my family’ what I meant was that we were going on leave together,” Morrison said.  

“I know I did not tell him where we were going because that is a private matter where members take leave and I know I did not tell him the destination, nor would I, nor would he expect me to have told him where [I] was going. I simply told him that I was taking leave with my family and he was aware of that at that time”. 

Perhaps Morrison is working on a supposition that voters don’t care about politicians lying because they assume all politicians lie. Perhaps he really is that cynical...... 

Read the full article here.

NOTES

House of Representatives, Hansard, 22 November 2012, excerpts:

1. Mr MORRISON (Cook—Prime Minister) (16:00): I wish to add to an answer. I want to confirm what the Leader of the Opposition said—that, in that text, I did not tell him the destination of where I was going on leave with my family; I simply communicated to him that I was taking leave. When I referred to him knowing where I was going and being fully aware I was travelling with my family, what I meant was that we were going on leave together. I know I didn't tell him where we were going, because where members take leave is a private matter. I know I didn't tell him the destination, nor would I, and nor would he expect me to have told him where I was going. I simply told him that I was taking leave with my family, and he was aware of that at that time.

2. Mr ALBANESE (Grayndler—Leader of the Opposition) (15:11): I wish to give a personal explanation.

The SPEAKER: Does the Leader of the Opposition claim to have been misrepresented? 

Mr ALBANESE: I do. 

The SPEAKER: You may proceed. 

Mr ALBANESE: In question time today, the Prime Minister said: … I texted him from the plane when I was going on that leave and told him where I was going … Mr Speaker, that is not true. On 15 December 2019 at 9.44 pm, the Prime Minister did text me saying he was going on leave. He did not tell me where he was going. He said he was going with his family. I kept that text message confidential, as you do with private text messages between private phones. 

The SPEAKER: The Leader of the Opposition needs to show where he has been misrepresented. 

Mr ALBANESE: On the Friday, he disclosed in an interview with 2GB that he had texted me, and that was the first time that that became public. But at no stage did he tell me where he was going. 

Mr MORRISON (Cook—Prime Minister) (15:12): on indulgence—Where I was going was on leave. That was the importance of the text message sent to the Leader of the Opposition. He knew I was taking leave. I told him I was taking leave. He chose to politicise that and has done so ever since.