Like Turnbull before him, Scott Morrison fails to connect with voters

According to Newspoll it is Australia’s leading public opinion polling company . Established in 1985, we have Australia’s best track record having estimated the outcomes of every state and federal election since our company was founded. 

In its national opinion poll released on 11 November 2018 Federal Primary Votes came in at:

Liberal-National Party 35 (-1)

Australian Labor Party 40 (+1)

Australian Greens 9 (0)

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 6 (0)

These results gave this Two-Party Preferred Voting breakdown (based on 2016 federal election preference flows):

The Australian, Twitter, 11 November 2018

AAP General Newswire, 11 November 2018:

Bill Shorten has narrowed the gap to Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister as Labor extends its lead over the coalition in the latest Newspoll.

The coalition government has slipped further behind Labor in the latest Newspoll as Bill Shorten narrowed the gap to Scott Morrison as the nation's preferred leader.

The Liberal-National coalition now trail Labor by 10 points after slipping to 45-55 on a two-party preferred basis, according to the Newspoll published in The Australian on Sunday night.

The coalition’s primary vote fell by a point to 35 per cent - two points higher than the record low of 33 per cent.

Labor's primary vote, according to the national poll of 1802 voters, sits at 40 per cent - only the third time it has hit such a mark in almost four years.

The coalition has been behind on the primary vote since the leadership change in August.

Mr Morrison's latest effort to win back votes - his bus and plane tour of Queensland - appeared to not work with voters with his net approval rating sinking another five points to minus eight.....

Things are crook at Tallarook for the Turnbull Government in August 2017

@LesStonehouse

On 21 August 2017 The Australian published the 18^th Newspoll in a row with negative numbers for the Coalition Federal Government:

The Turnbull government has taken a battering after a week of turmoil over the citizenship of key ministers, with the Coalition trailing Labor by 46 to 54 per cent in another brutal verdict from voters.

Labor has climbed to its strongest primary vote this year, with its core support at 38 per cent, giving it a convincing lead that would see it form government with a gain of 20 seats if the trend held at the next federal election.

The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows the government’s primary vote has fallen from 36 to 35 per cent over the past two weeks, amid internal rows over same-sex ­marriage and the storm over the foreign citizenship of three cabinet ministers.

Malcolm Turnbull has lost ground to Bill Shorten in his personal standing with Australians but has held his lead as preferred prime minister, favoured by 43 per cent of voters compared with 33 per cent who prefer the Oppos­ition Leader…..

The combined effect has widened Labor’s lead to 54 per cent to 46 per cent in two-party terms, a swing of more than 4 per cent against the government since the election in July last year….

The Newspoll survey of 1675 respond­ents, conducted from Thursday to yesterday, saw most of the results move within the margin of error of 2.4 percentage points, except for the fall in Mr Turnbull’s rating as better prime minister and the greater dissatisfaction with both leaders.

This is the 18th consecutive Newspoll in which the Coalition has trailed Labor in two-party terms, a tally that is now used against Mr Turnbull by his critics because he cited the loss of “30 Newspolls in a row” as a reason for challenging Tony Abbott in September 2015.

The swing against the government, if repeated in a uniform fashion at the next election, would lead to the loss of about 20 seats — eight in Queensland, four in Victoria, four in NSW, one in South Australia and three in Western Australia.

Mr Turnbull has retained his lead over Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister but the gap between­ the two has narrowed.

Voters cut their support for Mr Turnbull as better prime minister from 46 to 43 per cent, while increasing­ their support for Mr Shorten from 31 to 33 per cent.

The proportion of voters who were “uncommitted” increased from 23 to 24 per cent.

As a result, Mr Turnbull is now 10 points ahead of Mr Shorten on this measure, compared with a lead of 15 percentage points two weeks ago.

Primary vote

If the federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If uncommitted, to which one of these do you have a leaning?

Two-party preferred

Based on the preference flow at the July 2016 federal election.

Leaders' net satisfaction

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Prime Minister is doing his job? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Leader of the Opposition is doing his job?

Possum Comitatus tweets on that 3 May 2010 Newspoll & full poll results

Possum tweets on that Newspoll result - Coalition 51% and Labor 49% on a two party preferred basis.

Pollytics
Just food for thought before the ALP folks commit suicide or the Libs go out and order cases of Moet......
If anyone thinks that the ALP vote is 35% - Simon Crean territory - they're smoking crack. Newspoll - rogue.....
It's worth mentioning that in the 494 Newspolls, the ALP vote has only ever moved by 8 points or more 4 times. All rogue
via TweetDeck on 3 May 2010

Here is the full 3 May 2010 poll which appears to be rogue and an excerpt image:
















Here is a February poll:




Click on images to enlarge




















Past Newspoll opinion polls

* I apologize for the there-and-gone-again stutter in publishing this post - one of the tables would not show (think I may have accidentally doubled up images). That full poll is now a PDF link.

It's far too early to count Australia's 2022 federal election chickens

Since 13 February 2022 there have been 11 voter intention surveys published by the four major political survey companies – Newspoll, Ipsos, Resolve and Morgan Research.

None of these 11 surveys predicts that the Morrison Government will get re-elected in 2022.

However, investing in the idea that surveys indicate exactly what est.17,228,900 voters will decide as their pencils hover over ballot papers is dangerous for all concerned.

Nothing is a foregone conclusion. Every voter needs to make a well considered choice, because every voter has to live with the consequences of their vote.

On Saturday 18 May 2019 the national electorate went to polling booths all around Australia to elect a federal government.

The Australian, 8 May 2022
Click on image to enlarge

The day before “The Australian” newspaper published a Newspoll voter intention survey result which indicated that there was a 3 percentage point difference between Labor and the Coalition which – given the consistent poll results since 4 February 2018 favouring Labor – was considered by many political pundits to firm up the likelihood that Labor would form government the next day.

That didn’t happen. The Liberal-Nationals Coalition formed government with 77 out of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives, leaving the Labor Party Party holding 68 seats, Independents 3 and The Greens, Centre Alliance & Katter’s Australia Party all holding one seat each.

Right now the nation is just 11 days out from the 21 May 2022 federal election and, since 27 June 2021 consecutive Newspolls have developed a wide gap between Labor and the Coalition similar to the gaps that existed on Newspoll graphs in the lead up to the 2019 election.

Thirteen days out from the 2022 federal election there was an 8 percentage point difference in Labor’s favour in the Newspoll survey published last Sunday.

Expect the difference to tighten as election day gets closer.

Expect the predominately right-wing mainstream media (with a few shining exceptions) to take leave of its collective senses over the next 11 days as it fights to keep Scott Morrison in government.

Happy 49th to our local member, Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan

Happy 49th Newspoll, Kevin John Hogan. 

That's forty-nine published Newspoll surveys in a row in which the Coaltion has failed to pull ahead of Labor on a Two-Party Preferred (TPP) basis.

The last time the federal government - of which you have been a member since September 2013 under prime ministers Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison - has been ahead of Labor was on 27 June 2016.

That lasted a full thirty-five five days because by 30 August the gloss had worn off that July federal election win and you could only reach TPP 50 points in the August 2016 Newspoll.

In late September of that year the Coalition lost even that small comfort as Labor began to out poll the Turnbull Government and then the Morrison Government.

If you are wondering why this is happening the answer is easy to find. Turn a few pages of Hansard.

Every government backbencher, yourself included, votes on the floor of Parliament not in the interests of their electorate or that of the nation but in support of the hard-right ideology which dominates the Coalition Cabinet to the exclusion of even basic commonsense.

You have nobody to blame but yourselves.

So enjoy your 49th Kevin because your 50th is likely to be close on its heels.

*Image from Greeting Card Universe

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Newspoll survey of 1,582 respondents on 21-24 February 2019 was released on Monday 25 February:

Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals 37 per cent (unchanged), The Greens 9 per cent, One Nation 5 per cent.

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 53 per cent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 47 per cent (unchanged)

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -6 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -18 points.

If a federal election had been held on 24 February 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016 then Labor would have won government with a majority 82 seats to the Coalition's 63 seats in the House of Representatives.

Looking at the first three Newspoll & Roy Morgan voter intention polls of 2022

So what would the results of the first three voter intention surveys conducted by Newspoll and Roy Morgan Research look like on the ground, in the two federal electorates of Richmond and Page in the Northern Rivers region and, in the neighbouring electorates of Cowper, New England and Lyne?

Would seats change hands at the 2022 federal general election?

Morgan Poll 4-16 January 2022

Nationally a 7.5% swing to Labor

Antony Green's Federal Election Calculator 2022

Outcome

National Party holds Page (1.9%) Cowper (4.4%) Lyne (7.7% ) and New England (10.1%).

Labor Party holds Richmond (11.6%)

Newspoll 25-28 January 2022

Nationally a 7.5% swing to Labor

Anthony Green's Federal Election Calculator 2022

Outcome

National Party holds Page (1.9%) Cowper (4.4%) Lyne (7.7% ) and New England (10.1%).

Labor Party holds Richmond (11.6%)

Newspoll 9-12 February 2022

Nationally swing of 6.5% to Labor

Anthony Green's Federal Election Calculator 2022

Australian Labor Party wins federal government, however the Member for Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison retains his seat (12.5%).

Outcome

National Party holds Page (2.9%) Cowper (5.4%) Lyne (8.7% ) and New England (11.1%).

Labor Party holds Richmond (10.6%)

* 

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison's constant pushing to open state borders is not supported by people of voting age according to late August 2020 Newspoll

Young or old, male or female, regardless of political affiliation, it seems residents in the five states surveyed by Newspoll in late August 2020 are firmly on the side of state premiers keeping their borders closed at this stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The Australian, August 2020:

Popular support for Scott Morrison has fallen for the first time since the height of the pandemic as he takes on the states over their refusal to budge on border closures that are holding back the national economic recovery. 

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australians shows the federal political contest tightening between the two major parties, with Labor recovering ground to post its highest primary vote since April and levelling the political playing field with the Coalition. 

Primary vote If the federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If uncommitted, to which one of these do you have a leaning? 

One Nation numbers have been broken out from 'Other' from October 25, 2016 Newspoll is conducted by YouGov 

The two major parties are now deadlocked 50:50 on a two-party-preferred basis, marking a four-point turnaround in Labor’s favour over the past three weeks. 

The slide in support for the Prime Minister and the Coalition comes on the back of universal and overwhelming support among voters for the premiers’ right to close borders and restrict entry if and when outbreaks occur. 

A special poll conducted for The Australian shows 80 per cent of Australians support border ­closures if the health situation demands it. The results reveal the difficulty for the federal government as it faces off with the states, with the exception of NSW, which it has been blaming for holding back the national economic recovery.....

Support For State Premiers Over Border Closures Amongst Survey Respondents

South Australia - 92 per cent 
West Australia - 91 per cent 
Queensland - 84 per cent 
New South Wales - 76 per cent 
Victoria - 74 per cent.

Support For Premiers Over Border Closures by Political Party

Labor - 88 per cent
Coalition - 73 per cent
Greens - 88 per cent.

Support For Premiers Over Border Closures by Gender

Men - 78 per cent
Women - 82 per cent

Support For Premiers Over Border Closures by Age Group

18-34 years - 86 per cent
35-49 years - 82 per cent
50-64 years - 79 per cent
65 years & over - 73 per cent

Thirteen days out from the 2019 Australian federal election and the polls look like this

Newspoll, published 5 May 2019

Primary Vote – Coalition 38 (unchanged) Labor 36 (down 1 point)

Voter Net Satisfaction with Leaders – Morrison -1 (unchanged) Shorten -18 (down 6 points)

This is the 54th consecutive Newspoll in which Labor leads on a Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis.

The last time the Coaltion scored a higher TPP than Labor was on election day in 2016.

Between the 19 June 2017 and the 5 May 2019 Newspoll the Coalition only bested Labor on a Primary Vote basis 11 times out of a total of 42 polls. Only 3 of those higher primary vote scores occurred after Scott Morrison ousted Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister.

Past Newspoll results.

IPSOS poll, published 5 May 2019

Bad news continues for Morrison Government with publication of latest Newspoll analysis in April 2021

 

The last Newspoll of 2020 published on 29 November had Federal Labor trailing the Coalition by 2 points at 49 to 51 on a two-party preferred basis, after starting that year ahead by the same two points.

Come January and February 2021 the polling showed the Federal Coalition and Labor neck and neck on a two-party preferred basis.

On 28 March Labor moved ahead on a two-party preferred basis at 52 to the Coalition’s 48. At that point Scott Morrison’s approval rating as prime minister has fallen 9 points in a month.

Now despite the first published Newspoll analysis of voter intentions in April 2021 revealing that primary voting intentions have Labor at 38 per cent and the Coalition at 40 per cent, according to the Northern Daily Leader the Coalition is losing even more ground on a two-party preferred basis, with a result of 53 to 47 in Labor’s favour if a federal election had been held on 5 April.

The Coalition's two-party preferred polling in relation to Labor’s polling now stands at exactly the same level as it was on 2 February 2020 after that 4 point downwards slide it took once Morrison was discovered secretly holidaying in Hawaii while Australia's east coast burned.

According to AAP General Newswire on 6 April 2021, the polling figures for Western Australia and Queensland has the Coalition trailing by 12 points in WA and dropping 3 points in Qld. Indicating that at the next federal election the Morrison Government could lose 3 seats in Western Australian and 4 seats in Queensland.

In two other states the Coalition is trailing in the two-party preferred polling - by 10 points in South Australia and 6 points in Victoria. The vote is split 50-50 in New South Wales.

On 5 April Morrison’s approval rating as prime minister had actually risen by 6 points compared with the March result. However, the Newspoll analysis shows that he has lost support amongst male voters which now stands at only 41 per cent of all males surveyed – leaving male support on par with female support.

At the end of March 2021 at least one mainstream media masthead was predicting that Labor would need to gain a net 8 seats on a uniform swing of 3.2 per cent to win government at the next federal election. Thus far it is silent on what this latest polling analysis indicates.

The Lies Abbott Tells - Part Sixteen

Japan Daily Press: Tony Abbott

THE LIE

"I think the last government which brought down a very tough budget – the Howard government in 1996 - took a big hit in the polls too.” [ Prime Minister Tony Abbott quoted in The Sydney Morning Herald, 19 May 2014]

THE FACTS

The first post-budget Newspoll in 1996 showed a three percentage point increase in the Coalition's primary vote, to 50; a lift in Howard's approval rating, from 47 to 51; and an increase in his lead over Kim Beazley as preferred prime minister to a score of 53 per cent against Beazley's 24….

The Age Poll saw the Coalition holding its primary vote and slightly increasing its two-party preferred lead over Labor. [The Age, 19 May 2014]

THE REASON THE LIE WAS UTTERED?

Voter support for Tony Abbott's Coalition government has slumped on the back of last week's federal budget, according to polls published in Fairfax and News Corp papers today.

A Nielsen poll in the Fairfax newspapers has the Coalition down four points and Labor up four points on a two-party preferred basis, with Labor in front 56 to 44 per cent - tripling its lead from last month's poll.

The Coalition's primary vote has slumped from 40 per cent in early April to 35 per cent - 11 points lower than its vote in the election last September.

And a significant number of voters have switched to the ALP, bringing its primary support up from 34 per cent in April to 40 per cent - a figure not seen against the Labor Party's name in a national poll for years.

On the Prime Minister's performance, Nielsen says just 34 per cent approve of Tony Abbott's efforts - a 10-point slump - while approval of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten's performance is up to 47 per cent.

Mr Abbott's disapproval rating climbed to 62 per cent - 12 points higher than at last month's poll….

The Newspoll published in The Australian has similarly dire numbers for the Government, showing Labor in front 55 per cent to 45 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

And for the first time, voters prefer Mr Shorten as prime minister over Mr Abbott, giving him a 10-point lead in the better prime minister stakes at 44 per cent to 34 per cent - a six-point drop for the PM since last month.

The Nielsen poll has a margin of error of 2.6 per cent and Newspoll's margin of error is 3 per cent…. [ABC News 19 May 2014]

Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and Newspoll results tighten

Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and the losing streak is not yet over for the Morrison Government.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

Which means the losing streak has now stretched to just under 34 months.

53rd Newpoll results – published 29 April 2019:

Primary Vote – Labor 37 percent (down 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 38 per cent (down 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 4 per cent (unchanged).

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 51 per cent (down 1 point) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 49 per cent (up 1 point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -1 point (down 1 point) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -12 points (up 2 points).

If a federal election had been held on 29 April 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a majority 77 seats (down 5 seats since 16 April poll ) to the Coalition's 68 seats (up 5 seats since 16 April poll) in the House of Representatives.

According to Antony Green's Swing Calculator the 27-28 April 2019 Newspoll results will see the Nationals retain the Page and Cowper electorates and Labor retain the Richmond electorate.

In other words the status quo is predicted to remain for another three years – the Nationals having held Page since 2013 and Cowper since 2001. Labor has held Richmond since 2004.

Only 5 more sleeps until federal polling day across Australia & Newspoll still predicts that the Morrison Coalition will lose government

This is the 54th consecutive Newspoll in which Labor leads on a Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis.

The last time the Coalition scored a higher TPP than Labor was on election day in 2016.

Primary Vote - Coalition 39 (up 1 point) Labor 37 (up 1 point)

Two Party Preferred (TPP) Vote - Coalition 49 (unchanged) Labor 51(unchanged)

Voter Net Satisfaction with Leaders - Scott Morrison 0 (up 1 point)  Bill  Shorten -10 (up 8 points)

Newspoll results 11-12 May 2019, published 13 May 2019

If an election was held today then Labor would form government with 77 House of Representatives seats to the Coalition's 68 seats.

Both Pauline Hanson's One Nation and Clive Palmer's United Australia Party would have 0 seats in the Lower House.

Based on preference flows at the June 2016 federal election Antony Green predicts that Labor will gain the electorates of Robertson (NSW), Gilmore (NSW), Flynn (Qld), Ford (Qld) and Capricornia (Qld).

All five of these electorates were held by either the Liberal Party or Liberal-National Party at the 2016 election.

Previous Newspolls

Melbourne Cup Day Newpoll release

Not-the-Mebourne-Cup cartoon in Crikey.com.au today

For this Newspoll 1,708 people were interviewed by phone.
Federal Labor leads the Coalition 53% to 47% two-party preferred.
Rudd remains the preferred prime minister leading Howard 47% to 43% with 10% uncommitted.
Of those interviewed 63% have decided exactly which candidate or party they will be voting for on election day.
Newspoll 2-4 November 2007:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-6nov.pdf

If an Australian federal election was held today......

The sixteenth consecutive Newspoll shows the Labor Party leading the Liberal-Nationals Coalition.

This time by 53 to 47 per cent on a two-party preferred basis calculated on the preference flow at the July 2016 federal election.

The primary vote in this latest poll was: Coalition 36​ (​+1) Labor 37 (+1) Greens 9 (-1) One Nation 9​ (-2) Others 9 (+1)

The survey of 1,677 voters, taken between Thursday 20 July and Sunday 23 July 2017, has a margin of error of 2.4 per cent.

As the two party preferred percentages for Labor and the Coalition have remained unchanged for the last five Newspolls this is what the Australian Parliament might look like:

Swing percentage is based on most recent data from Newspoll on a two party preferred basis

and represents changes in seats for the Coalition and Labor Party only. Data source: Newspoll
The Australian, online, 23 July 2017