And this week brought another Newspoll.....

 

On Saturday 15 July 2023 there was a federal by-election in the Queensland electorate of Fadden – a safe seat for the Coalition having been held at 16 out of the 17 federal elections since the electorate was created in 1977.

The by-election was caused by incumbent Stuart Robert, a former minister in the Morrison Government resigning in anticipation of being named in the Report of the Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme.

As predicted the LNP candidate, Gold Coast City councillor Cameron Caldwell, won on the day with 49.06% of the first preference vote and 63.26% of the two-candidate preferred vote as at AEC recorded ballot count on 17 July.

Coincidentally, 14-15 July 2023 were the dates on which Newspoll conducted one of its national surveys of voter intentions.

This particular survey clearly indicated that if a general election had been held last Saturday, then MP for Dickson & Leader of the Liberal Party Peter Dutton & his Coalition cronies would remain on the Opposition benches.

IMAGES: The Australian, 17 July 2023

Click on graphs to enlarge

Here are the percentages revealed in this month’s survey.

Primary Vote

Labor – 36 (+2)

Coalition – 34 (-1.7)

Greens – 12 (+1)

One Nation – 7 (+1)

Others – 11 (+1)

Two-Party Preferred

Labor – 55 (+1)

Coalition – 45 (-1)

Performance Approval Rating

ALBANESE:

Satisfied – 52 (unchanged)

Dissatisfied – 41 (-1)

DUTTON:

Satisfied – 36 (-2)

Dissatisfied – 49 (unchanged)

BY 15 JULY 2023 LABOR'S SURVEY POSITION IN COMPARISON WITH ITS POSITION ON DAY OF 2022 FEDERAL ELECTION WAS:

Primary Vote: 3.4% higher

Two Party Preferred: 1.9% higher

Better Prime Minister:

Albanese 54% - no change

BY 15 JULY 2023 COALITION'S SURVEY POSITION IN COMPARISON WITH ITS POSITION ON DAY OF 2022 FEDERAL ELECTION WAS:

Primary Vote: 1.7% lower

Two-Party Preferred: 2.9% lower

Better Prime Minister:

Dutton 29% - 1% higher.

In June 2023 Liberal-Nationals Coalition & Liberal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton still failing to breakthrough with the national electorate?

 

At the Saturday, 18 May 2019 Australian federal general election 15.8 million electors turned out to vote, with the vote result giving 77 seats in the House of Representatives to the Liberal-Nationals Coalition, 68 seats to the Labor Party and 6 seats to minor parties/independents.

Three years later the federal general election saw 15.4 million electors vote, with the vote result sending the Labor Party into government in the House of Representatives with 77 seats, the Liberal-Nationals Coalition forming the Opposition with 58 seats and minor parties/independents holding 16 seats.

Twelve months into the Albanese Government’s three-year term and there is a 10 point projected gap in TPP votes in its favour in the 4 June 2023 Newspoll. While there is a 27 point gap in Albanese’s favour when it comes to which leader is seen as better prime minister material.

The Coalition in June 2023 under Dutton is 8 points lower than the Coalition under Morrison in August 2019 (the first poll after the 2019 federal election) and, at 45 points, 2 points lower under Dutton than where the Coalition was placed on election day 2022. On the Newspoll continuum over the last twelve months Peter Dutton as party leader has never guided the Opposition to a poll score higher than 46 points.

Newspoll, 4 June 2023:

FEDERAL PRIMARY VOTE (FP)

Labor ALP — 38 (no change)

Coalition Lib/NP — 34 (no change)

Greens — 12 (+1)

One Nation — 6 (-1)

FEDERAL TWO-PARTY PREFERENTIAL VOTE (TPP)

Labor ALP — 55 (no change)

Coalition Lib/NP — 45 (no change)

BETTER PRIME MINISTER

Anthony Albanese — 55 (-1)

Peter Dutton — 28 (-1)

SUPPORT FOR THE INDIGENOUS & TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER VOICE TO PARLIAMENT REFERENDUM

YES — 46%

NO — 43%

UNDECIDED — 11%

Sources:

The Australian newspaper, Newspoll, 4 June 2023

Twitter @GhostWhoVotes, 4 June 2023

Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), 2019, 2022.

NEWSPOLL APRIL 2023: Dutton's dismal leadership does not impress the average voter

 

Hot on the heels of the Liberal Party loss in the Aston by-election "The Australian" released its latest YouGov Newspoll.

The headline statistic was the preference flows based on survey respondents stated voting intentions on 2 April combined with recent federal and state elections.

Two Party Preferred Graph 28 Jan 2019 to 2 April 2023

Click on image to enlarge

Labor Party 55 (+1) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 44 (-1) on 2 April 2023

Five days before the last federal election held on 25 May 2022, the two party preferred numbers had Labor standing at 53 (-1) and Liberal-Nationals at 47 (+1).

Primary/First Preference voting intentions on 2 April 2023 

Labor 38 (+1)

Liberal-Nationals 33 (-2)

Greens 10 (no change)

One Nation 8 (+1)

 Better/Preferred Prime Minister

Antony Albanese 58 (+4)

Peter Dutton 26 (-2)

Unsure 16 (-2)

Albanese has outstripped Dutton as better/preferred prime minister by a wide margin in every Newspoll since the 21 May 2022 election.

Click on image to enlarge

Leaders Approval Rating

Anthony Albanese - Approve 56 (+1)  Disapprove 35 (-3)

Peter Dutton - Approve 35 (-2)  Disapprove 48 (no change) 

It would appear that in the estimation of the national electorate, Peter Dutton and the Liberal-Nationals Coalition he has led for the last ten months rate even lower than Scott Morrison and the Liberal-Nationals team he led to a loss of national government on 21 May 2022.

  

Last Newspoll of the 2022 federal election campaign

The Australian, Newspoll, published evening of 20 May2022
Click on image to enlarge

Primary Vote Percentages

Labor - 36 (down 2)

Coalition - 35 (no change)

Greens - 12 ( up 1) 

One Nation - 5 (down 1)

United Australia Party - 3 (no change)

Others - 8 (no change)

Two Party Preferred Percentages 

Labor - 53 (down 1)

Coalition - 47 (up 1) 

If the election had been held on 20 May 2022 then it is likely Labor would have won government with est. 80 seats to the Coalition's est. 65 seats.

However, this prediction is based on 2019 preference flows and the list of independent & minor party candidates was not as long in that federal general election nor the public appetite seemingly so strong for unaligned candidates.

It's far too early to count Australia's 2022 federal election chickens

Since 13 February 2022 there have been 11 voter intention surveys published by the four major political survey companies – Newspoll, Ipsos, Resolve and Morgan Research.

None of these 11 surveys predicts that the Morrison Government will get re-elected in 2022.

However, investing in the idea that surveys indicate exactly what est.17,228,900 voters will decide as their pencils hover over ballot papers is dangerous for all concerned.

Nothing is a foregone conclusion. Every voter needs to make a well considered choice, because every voter has to live with the consequences of their vote.

On Saturday 18 May 2019 the national electorate went to polling booths all around Australia to elect a federal government.

The Australian, 8 May 2022
Click on image to enlarge

The day before “The Australian” newspaper published a Newspoll voter intention survey result which indicated that there was a 3 percentage point difference between Labor and the Coalition which – given the consistent poll results since 4 February 2018 favouring Labor – was considered by many political pundits to firm up the likelihood that Labor would form government the next day.

That didn’t happen. The Liberal-Nationals Coalition formed government with 77 out of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives, leaving the Labor Party Party holding 68 seats, Independents 3 and The Greens, Centre Alliance & Katter’s Australia Party all holding one seat each.

Right now the nation is just 11 days out from the 21 May 2022 federal election and, since 27 June 2021 consecutive Newspolls have developed a wide gap between Labor and the Coalition similar to the gaps that existed on Newspoll graphs in the lead up to the 2019 election.

Thirteen days out from the 2022 federal election there was an 8 percentage point difference in Labor’s favour in the Newspoll survey published last Sunday.

Expect the difference to tighten as election day gets closer.

Expect the predominately right-wing mainstream media (with a few shining exceptions) to take leave of its collective senses over the next 11 days as it fights to keep Scott Morrison in government.

Australian Federal Election 2022: it seems we live in interesting times.

 

IMAGE: The Australian, 18 April 2022
Click on image to enlarge

Another Newspoll was published by The Australian on 18 April 2022.  

The results were as follows......

Survey of Federal Election Voting Intentions

First Preference:

Labor – 36% (down 1 on10 April poll)

Coalition – 35% (down 1 on10 April poll)

Greens – 12% ( up 2 since10 April poll)

One Nation – 4% (up 1 since 10 April poll)

United Australia Party – 4% (no change since10 April poll)

Others – 9% (down 1 since 10 April poll)

Two Party Preferred:

Labor 53% – (no change since 10 April poll)

Coalition – 47% (no change since 10 April poll)

Better PM:

Scott Morrison – 44% (no change since 10 April poll)

Anthony Albanese – 37% (down 2 since 10 April poll)

Undecided – 19% (up 2 since 10 April poll)

Satisfaction with Leaders Performance:

Scott Morrison – Satisfied 43% (up 1), Dissatisfied 52% (down 2) & Uncommitted est. 5%

Anthony Albanese – Satisfied 37% (down 5), Dissatisfied 51% (up 6) & Uncommitted est. 12%

Net Satisfaction with Leaders Performance:

Scott Morrison – minus 9% (up 3)

Anthony Albanese – minus 14% (down 11)

On the basis of the two party preferred percentage points if an election had been held between 14-17 April 2022 then Labor would have won government, with possibly 80 seats in the House of Representatives to the Coalition’s 65 seats. This is the same outcome predicted by the Newspoll results of 6-9 April, but markedly less favourable to Labor than the Newspoll survey results of  31 March-3 April.

Resolve Strategic-9 Entertainment released the results of a limited voter intention survey on Sunday 17 April 2022, which had primary voting intention coming in at Coalition 35% to Labor 34%. Poll Bludger ran the 2019 Two Party Preferred data against those percentages & the outcome went Labor 52% to Coalition 48%. Which means that if an election had been held between 11-16 April Labor would likely have won with 9 seat lead in the House of Representatives. This was somewhat awkward for those editors, commentators & journalists who had initially been predicting an outright win for Morrison on the basis of that particular survey.

Newspoll results show the Morrison Government losing ground since 27 June 2021 and Labor in positive Two Party Preferred territory across the same period. Enthusiasm for Scott Morrison as “Preferred PM” has been gradually falling since 21 February 2021 but Anthony Albanese has been lagging behind Morrison on this particular indicator in all but one Newspoll during the same period. In itself “Preferred PM” is not a stand alone indicator of success at a federal election and party leaders do go on to win government will less than stellar approval numbers.

However, mainstream media is reporting a record number of “Independent” candidates registering for the coming federal election and, on social media platforms there is some anecdotal evidence of strong support for such candidates and for The Greens. If predictive percentages tighten ahead of election day, this support may translate into more than 6 House of Representative seats going to Independents/minor parties and it is possible that neither of the two major parties will achieve an outright majority at the 21 May federal election. 

Four of these independent candidates have stated a willingness to enter into talks with Scott Morrison if citizens' ballot papers do not deliver him a clear majority - 51.5% of the national vote. These candidates are; Zoe Daniel (Ind Goldstein Vic), Allegra Spender (Ind Wentworth NSW), Sophie Scamps (Ind Mackellar NSW) and Kate Chaney (Ind Curtin WA). 

It seems we are living in interesting times.

Last Newspoll before 2022 federal general election was announced

 

Newspoll published on The Australian on 10 April 2022. Based on YouGov survey of 1,506 respondents conducted between 6 and 9 April.

RESULT

First Preference

Labor – 37% (-1)

Coalition – 36% (0)

Greens – 10% (0)

United Australia Party – 4% (+1)

One Nation – 3% (0)

Others – 10%

Two-Party Preferred 4 February 2018 to 10 April 2022

Click on image to enlarge

Two-Party Preferred 6-9 April 2022

Labor – 53% (-1)

Coalition – 47% (+1)

Based on Anthony Green’s Election Calculator this Two-Party Preferred result would see a 4.4% swing to Labor with 80 seats won (a gain of 11 seats) to Coalition with 65 seats won (a loss of 11 seats) and Minor Parties/Independents with 6 seats won - after factoring in retiring and sophomore MPs.

Preferred PM

Morrison (Coalition) – 44 (+1)

Albanese (Labor) – 39 (-3)

Uncommitted – 17 (+2)

Leaders Performance

Albanese – Approve 42 (-1) Disapprove 45 (+1)

Morrison – Approve 42 (0) Disapprove 54 (0)

Note:

Survey margin of error is ±2.5%

Comparing the Polls

IMAGE: 9 News, 10 April 2022
Click on image to enlarge