UNITED
NATIONS, UN News
24
October 2024 | Climate
and Environment
‘Climate
crunch time is here,’ new UN report warns
Fossil
fuel power plants are one of the largest emitters of the greenhouse
gases that cause climate change.
24
October 2024 Climate and Environment
Annual
greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, and urgent action
must be taken to prevent catastrophic spikes in temperature and avoid
the worst impact of climate change, according to a new report
released on Thursday by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
In
short, countries must start curbing emissions immediately, according
to the UN Emissions
Gap Report 2024.
“Climate
crunch time is here,” said UNEP
Executive Director Inger Andersen.
“We
need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before,
starting right now before the next round of climate pledges.”
If
not, she warned, the 1.5°C goal to cap rising temperatures set in
the Paris
Agreement on climate change “will soon be dead, and well below
two degrees Celsius will take its place in the intensive care unit”.
Climate
goals could evaporate
Launched
at the COP16
global biodiversity conference in Cali, Colombia, the report tracks
the gap between where global emissions are heading with current
country commitments and where they ought to be to limit warming to
well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C in line with the temperature
goals set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.
According
to the report, the 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years unless
nations collectively commit to cut 42 per cent of annual greenhouse
gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of
nationally
determined contributions and back this up with rapid action.
These
self-defined contributions outline steps to reduce emissions and
adapt to climate impacts – from drought, flooding and extreme
weather events – securing necessary funds and updating plans every
five years, the next time being in early 2025 ahead of the COP30
climate talks in Brazil.
‘Teetering
on planetary tight rope’
Without
dramatic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the world could face an
inevitable and catastrophic 3.1°C temperature rise, according to the
report, which comes at a time when governments are failing to fully
deliver on their promises.
UN
Secretary-General António Guterres said the emissions gap is not an
abstract notion. Indeed, there is a direct link between increasing
emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters.
“We
are teetering on a planetary tight rope,” he warned in a video
message. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge
headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable
suffering the most.
Affordable
technologies can help
The
COP29 UN Climate Change
Conference commencing in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November should serve
as a launchpad for a detailed discussion of such new ambitious
national plans, he said, saying that the event “starts the clock
for countries to deliver new national climate action plans by next
year”.
“Governments
have agreed to align these plans with 1.5 degrees,” he said.
That
means they must drive down all greenhouse gas emissions and cover the
whole economy, pushing progress in every sector, he said, urging the
largest economies – the G20 members responsible for around 80 per
cent of all emissions – to lead in this process.
There
is hope, the UN chief stressed.
“Today’s
report shows affordable, existing technologies can achieve the
emissions reductions we need to 2030 and 2035 to meet the 1.5°C
limit, but only with a surge in ambition and support,” he said.
Clean
energy can change trajectory
The
report shows significant potential to reduce emissions by up to 31
gigatons of CO₂ by 2030, which translates to about 52 per cent of
emissions reported in 2023, and by 41 gigatons by 2035, helping to
meet the 1.5°C target for both years.
Boosting
solar photovoltaic and wind energy usage could contribute 27 per cent
of the total reduction in 2030 and 38 per cent by 2035. Additionally,
forest conservation could provide around 20 per cent of the necessary
reductions in both years.
Other
effective strategies include enhancing energy efficiency,
electrifying various sectors and transitioning from fossil fuels in
buildings, transport and industry, according to the report.
However,
the report stated that realising even a fraction of this potential
will demand unprecedented international cooperation and a
comprehensive approach from governments, focusing on maximising
socioeconomic and environmental benefits while minimising trade-offs.
The
Emissions Gap Report 2004 titled "No more hot air
… please! With a massive gap between rhetoric and reality,
countries draft new climate commitments" can be downloaded at
https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/46404/EGR2024.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y
Warning
contained on Page 12 of the 2024 report:
Executive
summary
All
eyes on the next nationally determined contributions
The
deadline for countries to submit their next nationally determined
contributions (NDCs) with mitigation targets for 2035 is only a few
months away, at the time of writing.
The
fifteenth Emissions Gap Report has a special focus on what is
required from these NDCs to maintain the possibility of achieving the
long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement of limiting global
warming to well below 2°C, while pursuing 1.5°C relative to
pre-industrial levels. Its core message is that ambition means
nothing without action – unless
global emissions in 2030 are brought below the levels implied by
existing policies and current NDCs, it will become impossible to
reach a pathway that would limit global warming to 1.5°C with no or
limited overshoot (>50
per cent chance), and strongly increase the challenge of limiting
warming to 2°C (>66 per cent chance). The
next NDCs must deliver a quantum leap in ambition in tandem with
accelerated mitigation action in this decade.
The
magnitude of the challenge is indisputable. At the same time, there
are abundant opportunities for accelerating mitigation action
alongside achieving pressing development needs and Sustainable
Development Goals. Technology developments, particularly in wind and
solar energy, continue to
exceed expectations, lowering deployment costs and driving
their market expansion. The updated assessment of sectoral emission
reduction potentials included in this year’s report shows that the
techno-economic emission reduction potential based on existing
technologies and at costs below US$200 per ton of carbon dioxide
equivalent (tCO2e) remains sufficient to bridge the emissions gap in 2030
and 2035. But this will require
overcoming formidable policy, governance, institutional and technical
barriers as well as an unprecedented increase in the support provided
to developing countries along with a redesigning of the international
financial architecture. [my yellow highlighting]
From
Page 14 of the 2024 report:
Figure
ES.2 The landscape of current NDC targets and implementation gaps for
the G20 members collectively and individually by 2030, relative to
2019 emissions
Implied
emissions trajectories of the G20 members
towards net zero show reasons for concern
As
at 1 June 2024, 101 parties representing 107 countries and covering approximately 82 per cent of
global GHG emissions had adopted net-zero pledges either
in law (28 parties), in a policy document such as
an NDC or a long-term strategy (56 parties), or in an
announcement by a high-level government official (17
parties). All G20 members except Mexico and the African
Union (collectively) have set net-zero targets.
Overall,
however, limited progress has been made since
last year’s assessment on the key indicators of confidence
in net-zero implementation, including legal status,
the existence and quality of implementation plans
and the alignment of near-term emissions trajectories
with net-zero targets.
[my yellow highlighting]
On
16 June 2022 Australia submitted an updated
version of its 2015 Nationally Determined Contribution
(NDC) to the UNFCCC. The update committed Australia to reducing its
emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and, reaffirmed its
commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. NOTE: This is
not a commitment to reach absolute zero emissions.
Australia
along with other UN member states will be obliged to lodge a new
version of its 2022 NDC following COP29 negotiations in November
2024.
BACKGROUND
AUSTRALIA'S
ENVIRONMENT 2003 REPORT,
released
March 2024, excerpts:
Overview
The
year 2023 was one of opposites, with environmental conditions
swinging from wet to dry and back.
Globally,
climate change accelerated with greenhouse gas emissions accelerating
and global warming shattering
new records in sea level rise, sea ice loss and temperatures in the
oceans and atmosphere.
For
Australia, 2023 was the eighth hottest year on record. The year began
wet with average temperatures, continuing
the La Niña conditions of the previous three years. Northern
Australia experienced a wet monsoon season,
providing relief after the previous dry years.
Wet
conditions gave way to dry and unseasonably warm weather from May to
October. River flows, wetlands and water reservoirs all declined from the
very high 2022 levels but were still well above average.
Growing
conditions were generally very good because of high soil water
reserves at the start of the year and the
warm and sunny cool season.
The
warm and dry winter months did cause an early start of the fire
season, as early as August in NSW. An intense fire season was
expected but averted when
wet conditions returned in November, despite a switch to El Niño
climate circulation.
In
December, very warm ocean temperatures east of Australia contributed
to a cyclone and several storm
systems that caused flooding across Queensland and Victoria.
The
recovering Great Barrier Reef remained stable, but the impact of the
high temperatures, a cyclone and river-borne
sediments later in the year is not known yet.
The
number of threatened species increased sharply, mostly as a delayed
effect of the 2019/20 Black Summer
bushfires.
An
update to the Threatened Species Index in 2023 revealed continuous
and compounding declines
for threatened bird populations across Australia.
The
greatest threats to Australia’s biodiversity continue to be climate
change, invasive species and habitat destruction.
Among invasive species, the further spread of cane toads is of
significant concern.
Averaged
of the year, most environmental indicators declined somewhat from
very high values in 2022 but remained well above average,
contributing to an overall Environmental
Condition Score of 7.5......
Global
Change
Globally,
CO2 emissions and climate change are accelerating. 2023 saw the
highest temperatures in the atmosphere and in the oceans ever
recorded, the least sea ice ever observed, and a rapid increase in
sea level. Atmospheric
CO concentration increased by 2.6 ppm, which is 41% faster than the
previous year and 16% faster than the average 2000–2022 growth
rate. The rapid increase was due to a combination of ever-increasing
fossil fuel emissions and a change to El Niño conditions during
2023. The average CO2 concentration
reached 421 ppm, a 33% increase from
1960.
Global
average air temperature was the highest on record
by a considerable margin. It was 0.32 °C higher than
the previous year and 1.18 °C above the 20th century average. The
last ten years (2014–2023) all rank
as the ten warmest on record.
The
maximum ozone hole extent was 2% smaller than
the previous year. It was 5% larger than the 2000–2022
average but 13% below the maximum extent
observed in 2000. The ozone hole has not shrunk
over the last two decades but may have stabilised.
Oceans
absorb 93% of excess heat from climate change.
Global ocean heat content increased by 4.8% compared
to the previous year. Globally, sea surface temperatures
were the highest on record in 2023.
The
global mean sea level rose by 11.7 mm in 2023; the
most rapid rise since 2015. Sea level has increased by
85 mm since 2000 and 101 mm since 1993.
Global Ocean Warming
+4.8%
HEAT INCREASED
FROM 2022
Sea
ice extent was 2% less than the previous year in
the Arctic and 8% less around Antarctica, where it broke
the record set the previous year. Ice extent on both
hemispheres combined was 5.0% less than the previous
year, the lowest on record and 9.5% lower than
the 2000–2022 average....
The full Australia's Environment 2023 Report can be read and downloaded at
https://www.wenfo.org/aer/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2023_Australias_Environment_Report_March2024_spreads.pdf
