Morrison Government enters into multiple emergency procurement contracts for the supply of rapid antigen tests then acts surprised when its demands crowd out existing non-government customers

On 11 January 2022 AUSTENDER published five contract notices for the procurement of Rapid Antigen Tests by the Australian Dept. of Health with a combined value of $61.82 million.

All contacts began on 10 January 2022 and all end in January or early February 2022 and, these contracts are with Suretest Medical Pty Ltd, Stonestar Wholesale Pty Ltd, Hough Pharma Pty Ltd, and AM Diagnostics Pty Ltd.

All five federal government procurements were done by way of Limited Tender under Condition:10.3.b. Extreme urgency or events unforeseen. When, for reasons of extreme urgency brought about by events unforeseen by the relevant entity, the goods and services could not be obtained in time under open tender.

To meet the deadlines under these contract agreements it appears that some or all of of these companies may have failed to meet some or all previous contracts made with non-government agencies/corporations.

An ABC News article of 12 January 2022 highlighted one supplier as informing a private business customer by email that; the federal government had also "placed a mandate order and will be taking supply for their requirements out of this order arriving this week". "At this stage, we are unsure whether it will be the whole shipment or a portion"... 

Twitter on 11 January 2022 displayed a snapshot of section of an email:

While The Canberra Times on 13 January 2022 reported:

Private retailers have been told their rapid antigen test orders are being delayed and redirected by the federal government as it made an urgent tender for millions of tests.

Five tenders for rapid antigen tests worth just under $62 million were published on Tuesday by the Department of Health.

The tenders website states the condition is due to "extreme urgency or events unforeseen."

This comes after criticism from pharmacists that the government wouldn't procure extra kits for businesses under the national concession card scheme.

The Department of Health said this latest tender was not for additional rapid antigen tests and instead was a part of the broader procurement of more than 70 million rapid tests.

"Each proposal was independently assessed against consistent criteria before the departmental delegate made the decision to procure the tests," a spokesperson told NCA NewsWire.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Rapid antigen test orders not being redirected to the Department of Health

Widespread reporting that supplies of rapid antigen test (RAT) kits are being redirected to the Commonwealth Department of Health are untrue.

Date published: 14 January 2022

Media type: Statement

Audience: General public

Widespread reporting that supplies of rapid antigen test (RAT) kits are being redirected to the Commonwealth Department of Health are untrue.

The Department of Health reaffirms that the Department has not requisitioned all RAT supplies within and entering Australia.

The Department has made purchases in accordance with Commonwealth Procurement Rules, and has not sought to place itself ahead of other commercial and retail entities.

While we are aware there are supply constraints within the market, it is expected supply will normalise over the coming weeks.

The Australian Government has secured more than 80 million RATs for delivery in January and February. State and territory governments also advise that they have placed orders for approximately 130 million RATs.

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On or about 6 January 2022 the Australian Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment entered into a $14,531.73 contract with Team Medical Supplies for supply of Rapid Antigen Tests between 6 to 20 January 2022. This contract was also limited tender but with no emergency condition attached.

In December 2021 the Australian Federal Police had entered into a $232,003.64 contract with Aspen Corporate Medical Options Pty Ltd T/as Corporate Medical Opti for supply of Rapid Antigen Tests between 23 December 2021 to 14 December 2022. This contract was open tender. 

All in all the Morrison Government has six active contracts for the purchase of rapid antigen test kits. It is disingenuous of the Dept. of Health to imply that the suppliers were not aware that the Morrison Government wanted est. 89 million test kits asap, in an import market already committed to supplying Australian states and territories with a further est.139 million test kits.

Someone was always going to miss out in a tight market and, in this case it is ordinary people, forced to pay often above-market price for a hard to find test kit in a national marketplace which has been artificially starved of product by government competition.

ACOSS call for Australian Dept. of Health to release more granular COVID-19 data & government to fully subsidise rapid antigen test kits for those living ion or below the poverty line

Echo, 31 December 2021:

When you can find rapid antigen tests (RAT), the cost is prohibitive for many people and the Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS) is calling on the Federal Government to provide free RATs for people who rely on social security payments.

President Peter McNamara said ACOSS are very concerned that people relying on income support payments just can’t afford $70 for a rapid antigen test (RAT) kit, leaving them unable to assess their risk from COVID-19 for themselves, their families and the community.

‘It is irresponsible and callous of the Federal Government to fail to make provision for up to three million people already struggling to survive below the poverty line. Especially when we have evidence that people living in the lowest socioeconomic groups have experienced almost four times as many COVID-19 deaths as people in the highest income group.

The people hardest hit

‘We know that the hardest hit by COVID-19 and all variants are people who are homeless, people with disabilities, First Nations people, especially those who live remotely, the elderly, single-parent households, people relying on JobSeeker ($45/day) and young people on Youth Allowance (just $36/day).

‘We need to prioritise these groups and the community sector that support them who are on the frontline, and who see and respond to this crisis first.’

Mr McNamara said there needs to be greater clarity of information from the NSW and Victorian governments on how people in these states can access free RATs as well. ‘It seems currently only registered aged care facilities are being supplied with free RATs.

‘The need for governments to keep all people safe from the virus is as pressing as it ever was. We know from ACOSS member organisations providing services on the ground that there are still certain areas and populations with low vaccination rates.

Ensuring everyone has equitable access to testing

‘Ultimately, the most effective way to protect all of us is to ensure everyone has equitable access to testing, vaccinations, including booster shots and other related health and hospital services.

‘Because of the extraordinary work of community-led health initiatives connecting with those hardest to reach, people who were hesitant about the vaccine, or who had struggled for access, are now better protected. We’ve started closing that gap in coverage rates.

Mr McNamara said the Federal Government needs to increase its investment in community-led health initiatives. ‘These are organisations working locally to inform people about the latest covid-19 developments, explain the benefits of the vaccine, arrange for them to have access to a jab, and checking on them afterwards. They are a vital complementary force to the mass vaccination clinics and GP hubs.

‘ACOSS also calls on the Department of Health to release more granular data about the infection rates, vaccination rates and death rates of at-risk groups such as those experiencing disadvantage. By knowing who is yet to be vaccinated and where they are, and their vulnerability to the virus, community-led health services can reach them and offer coverage.’

Cartoon of the Week

Cathy Wilcox

Global Climate Change Response 2021": Advice that Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg & the rest of the Cabinet Ministers, are determined to ignore

 

Moody’s Investor Services, Research Announcement, 12 October 2021:

Moody's - Financial firms that take rapid, predictable pace to zero financed emissions will win the race



Singapore, October 12, 2021 --

• Financial firms are under rising regulatory and commercial pressure to support the global sustainability drive

• Those that take a rapid, well-communicated and measurable pace to net zero financed emissions will be able to preserve their credit quality

As the race to net zero emissions accelerates, banks, insurers and asset managers will need to ramp up climate risk assessments and set clear goals for reaching net zero in their financed emissions, says Moody's Investors Service in a new report. A delayed and disorderly carbon transition would pose the greatest risk to financial firms, while a rapid, well-communicated and measurable transition would keep risks lower.

"Financial firms will lend to and invest in green businesses and new technologies as the transformation to a low-carbon economy creates vast financing opportunities. At the same time, they will help fund the capital needs of corporate clients in carbon-intensive sectors who are aligning their business strategies with low-carbon business models," says Alka Anbarasu, a Moody's Senior Vice President.

Across the G-20, financial firms hold $22 trillion in loans and investments subject to carbon transition risk. Green lending and investments will bring major commercial opportunities to financial firms, but the credit impact of carbon transition will begin to hit home in the second half of this decade when scrutiny of their interim climate goals is likely to intensify.

"A scenario in which concerted action to achieve carbon transition is delayed beyond the end of this decade by uncoordinated government and regulatory policies poses the greatest threat of losses for the financial industry. It risks triggering sudden, large-scale and drastic action in later years by governments, firms, and regulators to limit climate change, hurting the quality of loans and invested assets," says Sean Marion, a Moody's Managing Director. [my yellow highlighting]

Financial firms adopting a rapid but predictable shift towards climate-friendly finance will best preserve their credit quality. In this scenario, financial firms integrate climate risk considerations into their strategic decisions, business processes, governance structures and risk management frameworks, while setting out clear goals for reaching net zero in their financed emissions.

Subscribers can access the report "Financial institutions - Decarbonizing finance: Financial firms need to rise to the challenge of supporting carbon transition" at: http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1298854

Northern NSW starved of timely relevant COVD-19 information by Perrottet Government

 

Byron Bay local government area
IMAGE: .idcommunity 

Byron Bay local government area covers 566.6 sq kms with an est. resident population of 35,773 men, women and children and a population density of 63.13 person per sq km.

 

As of 14 November 2021 only 78.7% of the population 16 years of age and older were fully vaccinated. On 21 November the fully vaccinated rate had risen to 80.9%.

On 17 November 2021in NSW postcode 2481 NSW Health recorded a confirmed COVID-19 case in the Byron Bay local government area. The source of the individual’s infection is listed as “Overseas”. Presumably that person entered Northern NSW sometime on the afternoon of 16 November 2021.

On the same date another confirmed case for NSW postcode 2483 in the Byron Bay local government area was recorded and the source of that individual’s infection was listed as “interstate”

On 19 November 2021 in NSW postcode 2481 NSW Health recorded a confirmed COVID-19 case in the Byron Bay local government area.

Then again on 22 November 2021 in NSW postcode 2483 NSW Health recorded a confirmed COVID-19 case in the Byron Bay local government area.

The source of individual infection cannot be determined for 19 & 22 November 2021 confirmed cases because NSW Health has discontinued daily source of infection database updates as of 19 November 2021. At the same time it was announced the daily location of confirmed cases database was also being discontinued.

A Northern NSW Local Health District media release on 24 November revealed a confirmed COVID-19 case recorded for 23 November 2021 which is referred to as “a household contact of an existing case”.

News of the Byron Bay "Aquarius" backpackers hostel lockdown did not become public knowledge until Wednesday 24 November 2021, when the state MLA for Ballina released the information on social media.

Given that NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has previously stated that he not NSW Health will control release of COVID-19 information, one can only assume it is at his direction that rural & regional NSW is being staved of information concerning infection spread within districts, cities, towns and villages.

ABC News, 25 November 2021:

A backpacker hostel in Byron Bay on the NSW north coast has been placed into a snap seven-day lockdown after a positive COVID case and 84 close contacts were identified.

Police confirmed they were "assisting NSW Health at a hostel on Lawson Street in Byron Bay" and have referred any further inquiries to NSW Health.

The ABC has contacted NSW Health but officials there have yet to provide any further information about the operation underway at the backpackers.

News of the positive case came as thousands of school students descended on the north coast for the traditional schoolies celebrations.

Ms Smith says food and health support is being provided to the dozens of guests who are now in lockdown at the backpackers.

Ms Smith posted at statement about the situation to her verified Facebook page on Wednesday night.

"I'm closely monitoring a situation in Byron Bay where a positive COVID-19 case and 84 close contacts have been identified at Aquarius Backpackers in Byron Bay," her statement read.

"Police are monitoring compliance 24/7 over the next seven days.

"My thoughts are with everyone in that situation as it will be a tough time and I will keep checking to make sure that people are getting the support they need."

Coalition Government #COVIDIOTS force Morrison into yet another backflip - on vaccine mandates

 

The Saturday Paper, POST, 23 November 2021:

"Prime Minister Scott Morrison has backflipped on vaccine mandates, following a rebellion of Coalition senators that threatens to derail his parliamentary agenda.

What we know:

• Five Coalition senators crossed the floor to vote for a failed One Nation bill that would have overridden state government vaccine mandates (The Age); 
• Two of the five, Gerard Rennick and Alex Antic, have threatened to withhold their support for all government bills over the issue;
• To defuse the rebellion Morrison declared business owners should set their own rules on vaccinations for customers and staff, in a dramatic reversal of previous support for mandates (The New Daily); 
• The prime minister targeted rules in Queensland in particular preventing unvaccinated people from visiting cafes;
• The opposition noted Morrison was singling out a Labor state government rule also applied by the Coalition government in NSW, and had repeatedly backed vaccine mandates for workplaces previously;
• Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie unleashed a scathing speech in opposition to One Nation’s vaccine bill, declaring “Being held accountable for your own actions isn't called discrimination – it is called being a bloody adult” (SBS); 
• It comes amidst a rising tide of protests against vaccines and lockdowns globally (Crikey)." 

The JobKeeper Rorts Scandal

JobKeeper has been in the news for many months. Introduced hastily at the end of March 2020, this Australian Government scheme to keep workers tied to their employers during the Covid downturn saved an estimated 700,000 jobs. Initially much of the discussion about JobKeeper related to the enormous $89 billion cost to the taxpayer, debate about winding the scheme back and then ending it as well as concern about how the resulting deficit was going to be reduced.

More recently the focus has been on whether all those entities which accessed the scheme were actually entitled to do so. Billion-dollar businesses were eligible if they suffered a 50% or more revenue shortfall while smaller businesses were eligible if their revenue fell by 30% or more. Entities could access the scheme by either demonstrating the revenue drop or forecasting a drop. Eligible businesses were provided with $1500 per fortnight for each of their employees.

It has become increasingly obvious over recent months that many businesses did not lose the stipulated revenue and yet still obtained JobKeeper.

The rush to set up the scheme, which quickly followed the Government’s reaction to the alarming image of thousands of workers lining up outside Centrelink offices, led to the failure to include an important safety requirement. It should have been stipulated that if the projected revenue shortfall did not eventuate, the money obtained should be reimbursed to the government – just as welfare recipients are legally required to return to the government any overpayments they receive.

The extent of overpayment has developed into a scandal that unsurprisingly is being referred to as a major rorting of the scheme.

According to the Parliamentary Budget Office, over the first six months of the scheme, $13 billion went to those entities whose earnings actually rose.

Among the list of those who were ineligible but stayed on the governmental gravy train and benefitted from this taxpayer funding were some major companies and very wealthy individuals. A few examples are Specsavers, Luxottica (owner of OPSM and Sunglasses Hut), car dealer A P Eagers, retailers Harvey Norman, Best & Less and Cotton On, private schools Wesley College, The Kings School and Brisbane Grammar, Bond University and New York University’s Sydney campus and the Australian Club in Sydney.

Many of these ineligible entities were able to post enormous profits which enabled them to increase shareholder dividends and give large executive bonuses.

While there is general appreciation of the role JobKeeper played in restricting the job loss from Covid restrictions and lockdowns last year, there has been increasing public concern about brazen rorting of the scheme and the government’s failure to urge the return of benefits from those who were not entitled to receive them.

Shadow Assistant Minister for Treasury Andrew Leigh has been raising the issue in parliament and the media for months. He said, “JobKeeper overpayment is the single biggest waste of money in Australian history, and the Morrison government won’t do a thing to make it right.”

Some entities have voluntarily returned the benefits or part of them.

The publicity that has been given to those who have shamelessly kept money to which they were not entitled has been having some effect. Harvey Norman’s Gerry Harvey, who refused for months to return any Jobkeeper money, finally announced in August that the company would return $6.02 million in JobKeeper funds to the ATO. However, this repayment is less than a third of the estimated $22 million the company and its franchisees claimed in total. According to Andrew Leigh, “Harvey Norman has given us the best advertisement for more transparency into the secretive, rorted jobkeeper scheme.”

According to Dean Paatsch, a director of corporate advisory group Ownership Matters, 88% of the $225 million that companies are returning is from publicly listed companies. Paatsch also has concerns about the lack of transparency with JobKeeper saying it was “extraordinarily generous and had zero transparency compared to the US, UK, New Zealand and other European countries. The interesting thing is that transparency does have an effect in stopping people claiming benefits that they don’t need.”

While Opposition and Crossbench MPs have been raising the issue of waste, lack of transparency and unethical behaviour by those who should not have received JobKeeper funds, the Government has been unmoved. Months ago the Prime Minister referred to questions about the rorting of JobKeeper and calls for the government to take action to have money returned as “the politics of envy” – an incredibly insensitive and arrogant remark given the size of the debt the nation now has – let alone the financial hardship that many people on low incomes have been suffering during the pandemic.

While the extent of rorting by ASX listed companies has been revealed because of their public reporting requirements, there has been no transparency in relation to private entities. Senator Rex Patrick and others have tried to obtain a list of JobKeeper beneficiaries with an annual turnover of $10 million or more. This has been blocked by the Government and the ATO Commissioner. Ownership Matters says publicly listed companies accounted for just 3% of the entire JobKeeper program, which means that private companies accounted for 97%. So the community is not being given the opportunity to see how much rorting was undertaken by these private entities. And, unlike Harvey Norman and other public companies, these unknown rorters can avoid being shamed into returning any funds to which they were not entitled.

While nothing was built into the scheme to actually compel rorters to return money to which they were not entitled, the ATO is taking action to recover some of the money paid to some entities. However, it is unlikely that taxpayers will ever learn the real extent of the rorting - given the lack of transparency about the majority of the scheme’s beneficiaries.

Some light could be shone on the murkier aspects of the JobKeeper scheme as the Auditor-General is investigating the ATO’s administration of the program following a request Andrew Leigh made in December last year. The A-G’s report is due to be tabled in December this year.

The national JobKeeper debt is far greater than it should have been and will create budgetary difficulties well into the future – particularly if governments try to repair the deficit quickly by cutting back on services like health, welfare and education. With inequality and poverty already major problems in Australian society, the fall-out from the JobKeeper rorts debacle has the potential to exacerbate these problems.

As the Morrison Government was responsible for the design and operation of JobKeeper, it is responsible for the massive waste of rorted taxpayer funds. No amount of spin from the Prime Minister or the Treasurer can excuse its incompetence. With the election approaching, we can look forward to plenty of distractions to encourage the community to lose interest in this and all the other rorts as well as the vaccine supply and quarantine failures.

What will be particularly interesting about the election campaign will be whether the Coalition, which has always claimed it has been a “gold standard” economic manager, will have the effrontery to push this tired line after the JobKeeper rorts debacle.

One thing we can be sure of is that the rorters, the JobKeeper Bludgers, will still be laughing all the way to the bank.

Hildegard

Northern Rivers, NSW

Guest Speak is a North Coast Voices segment allowing serious or satirical comment from NSW Northern Rivers residents. Email ncvguestpeak at gmail dot com  to submit comment for consideration.

Prime Minister Morrison may no longer be able to successfully hide politically inconvenient advice/facts from the national electorate

The Saturday Paper, 14 August 2021:

The prime minister may no longer be able to use a special one-man cabinet committee to so readily conceal government advice from public view, after a judge rejected it as a way to keep national cabinet’s deliberations secret.

Contrary to the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet’s insistence, a ruling by Justice Richard White in the Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) confirmed that all working documents for the meetings of federal, state and territory leaders are accessible under freedom of information law.

The government cannot cover them retrospectively by taking them to federal cabinet either, because their legal status is based on their purpose when they are created.

The ruling potentially has implications beyond national cabinet because of the mechanism Prime Minister Scott Morrison used to extend federal cabinet’s secrecy provisions. That mechanism is the cabinet office policy committee, or COPC.

Since creating it in 2019, Morrison has used this committee, of which he is the only permanent member, to extend cabinet confidentiality over anything he wants shielded from public view.

He simply declares particular meetings to be configurations of the policy committee and asserts cabinet secrecy over their deliberations. This is how he claimed cabinet secrecy when the old Council of Australian Governments was renamed “national cabinet” last year.

But Justice White ruled that simply calling national cabinet a federal cabinet committee did not make it one. He confirmed that a cabinet committee featured members of a single cabinet, from a single government and parliament. While he did not rule out external members, he found that having one federal cabinet minister was not enough.

It’s expected the senate’s Covid-19 inquiry will now seek to have numerous documents handed over, after various departments first refused access to them, citing cabinet secrecy via COPC. [my yellow highlighting]

Justice White was ruling on an application to the AAT by independent senator Rex Patrick, made after the prime minister’s department rejected two freedom of information (FOI) requests last year.

“Fundamentally, what he’s done, is to create a device that he hopes will bring all these entities under the umbrella. But it is a device and it’s an illusory device.”

Read the full article here.

On 8 April 2020, the Senate resolved to establish a Select Committee on COVID-19 to inquire into the Australian Government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Thus far public hearings have been held between 23 April 2020 and 31 July 2021 and two interim reports have been produced to date. This Inquiry is due to present its final report on or before 30 June 2022.

The committee has not set a due date for submissions and has decided it will consider submissions provided throughout the inquiry. Submissions can be sent using the Senate's online submission system or they can be emailed to the committee.

Nationals Senator Matt Canavan from Yeppoon near Rockhampton shows his distasteful and offensive political persona to the world

From 25 January 2020 when the national confirmed cases count began in Australia to 15 June 2021 (the day before the Delta Variant outbreak began) the COVID-19 pandemic had infected 30,274 individuals, At that point 910 people or 3 per cent of all those infected had died.

www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/06/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-15-june-2021.pdf

New South Wales was in Day 51 of the Delta Variant Outbreak with 4,610 people having been infected between 16 June to 5 August 2021 and 22 people dead as a result, when The Financial Review published the results of sums done on the back of an envelope by former & short-lived Executive at KPMG, former & short-lived Director at Productivity Commission, former Chief of Staff to Barnaby Joyce & a current Nationals Senator for Qld, Matt Canavan (left).

In this opinion piece Canavan states that; Each life saved by the Sydney lockdown costs $330 million. It’s an unjustifiable expense that imposes large and disproportionate burdens on small business and the less well off. [my yellow highlighting]

The reason for this "Sydney lockdown" is hard to ignore. On 16 June 2021 the NSW SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Outbreak began with 2 daily cases of local community transmission reported. On 13 July NSW Health reported 97 daily cases of community transmission and at the end of the month that number had risen to 239 cases of community transmission reported in the last 24 hours. On 5 August there were 291 daily cases of community transmission reported and the cumulative number of confirmed locally acquired COVID-19 infections had risen by 4,610 people since the outbreak began, including 22 who had died from this variant infection. However, Canavan does his best to ignore those particular numbers. 

Leaving his dodgy costings aside, Canavan appears to firmly believe Scott Morrison’s position that the best way forward to ‘open up’ the economy and he wants us all to learn to live with the SARS-CoV-2 virus despite low vaccination rates.

Or as he expressed himself on 5 August; We should end the lockdowns and replace them with sensible social distancing requirements and testing and tracing.

All his latest opinion piece proves is that Canavan did not understand the implications of what little he actually read in The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity modelling report.

It was made very clear that the report assigns a Transmission Potential (TP) to the Delta Variant of 3.6. It is also observed in its pages that the ability to reduce this variant’s TP to less than 1 needs both to contain community transmission in the current suppression phase (A) and to prevent cases from exceeding health sector capacity in phase B. Currently personal risk reduction behaviours and constraints on social mixing known as Public Health and Social Measures (PHSM) are the levers employed to manage TP in response to incursions and outbreaks [Doherty Modelling Report for National Cabinet 30 July 2021, pp. 7, 10].

However, the report also points out that in the four scenarios with only baseline levels of social and behavioural restrictions in place (ie minimal density/capacity restrictions), epidemic growth is still expected at the yet to be reached 50%, 60%, 70% and 80% national vaccine coverage. In these scenarios reduced effectiveness of the public health ‘test, trace, isolate, quarantine’ (TTIQ) response is anticipated due to high caseloads [Doherty Modelling Report for National Cabinet 30 July 2021, p.10].

In all four vaccination scenarios coming out of lockdown and having only baseline density/capacity restrictions operating across the population, leaves Australia still facing a predominately Delta Variant epidemic. One where the Transmission Potential is likely to be a problematic 2.0, due in part to fading of vaccine efficacy in vaccinated individuals and the need to rollout a national vaccine booster program – which on past performance will possibly be as chaotic as the original vaccine rollout.

The vacillating Morrison Government's two most favoured vaccination coverage scenarios now appear to be the 70% and 80% of all adults. These graphs show epidemic growth to 180 days given transition to Phase B leading to established community transmission:

Epidemic growth to 180 days given transition to Phase B leading to established community transmission for the threshold coverage targets of 70 and 80%, with vaccine allocation according to the ‘All adults’ strategy  [Doherty Modelling Report for National Cabinet 30 July 2021, p.14]

This is not helping Australia’s economy get back on its feet in the foreseeable future. Neither is it likely to reduce the real cost to federal and state governments or to society generally of this COVID-19 global pandemic.

The Australian Treasury has costed nationally applied Strict public health order restrictions to cost $3.2 billon a week. Mild nationally applied restrictions are costed at $2.35 billion a week, Low restrictions at $0.65 billion and Baseline at $0.1 billion a week.

Treasury’s financial analysis of the four vaccination scenarios in the Doherty Institute modelling report appears somewhat superficial  - given it refused to model the economic implications of predicted overstretched test, trace and quarantine systems in order to produce these optimistic key findings for the National Cabinet:

• Continuing to minimise the number of COVID-19 cases, by taking early and strong action in response to outbreaks of the Delta variant, is consistently more cost effective than allowing higher levels of community transmission, which ultimately requires longer and more costly lockdowns.

• As vaccination rates rise, significantly less lockdowns and other restrictions will be required to continue to minimise cases of COVID-19, reducing the economic cost of managing the virus.

• Moderate or strict lockdowns are still expected to be necessary to continue minimising outbreaks until Australia reaches 70 per cent vaccination rates for Australian adults (16+). As a result, the costs of managing COVID-19 will remain high.

• At 50 per cent vaccination rates, and based on the assumptions outlined in this paper, the direct economic cost of minimising cases is estimated to be around $570m per week. At 60 per cent, the estimated cost remains high, but falls to around $430m per week.

• Once 70 per cent of Australian adults (16+) are vaccinated, and assuming the spread of COVID-19 is minimised, it is expected that outbreaks can be contained using only low level restrictions, with lockdowns unlikely to be necessary. This will significantly reduce the expected economic cost of COVID-19 management to around $200m per week.

• At 80 per cent vaccination rates, these direct economic costs are expected to fall further still, to around $140m per week, and costs are lower under all scenarios.

• Treasury has not modelled the economic costs of a severe and widespread outbreak that breaches Australia’s health system capacity. It is expected that such a situation would carry very significant economic costs. International experience indicates that it would lead to significant behavioural changes regardless of the level of official restrictions, and longer outbreaks. [my yellow highlighting]

From 25 January 2020 to 5 August 2021 the national percentage of confirmed COVID-19 deaths was 2.63 per cent of the infected population or 927 people. During that same period the NSW percentage of confirmed COVID-19 deaths was 0.77 per cent of the infected state population or 79 people.

Senator Canavan can play with all these numbers all he likes, it doesn’t make his devaluing of potential lives saved and actual lives lost any less distasteful nor make his ‘politiking’ any less offensive.