Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison states that net zero emissions will be achieved through technology and "the animal spirits of our business community". I rather thought it was those very same animal spirits which had been globally polluting our atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution began in the 1700s

 

On 19 April 2021 at the Business Council of Australia Annual Dinner Prime Minister Scott Morrison informed the world that; “We are going to meet our ambitions with the smartest minds, the best technology and the animal spirits of our business community. We need to change our energy mix over the next 30 years on that road to net zero emissions…..It will be achieved by the pioneering entrepreneurialism and innovation of Australia’s industrial workhorses, farmers and scientists.

It will be won in places like the Pilbara, the Hunter, Gladstone, Portland, Whyalla, Bell Bay, the Riverina. In the factories of our regional towns and outer suburbs. In the labs of our best research institutes and scientists. It will be won in our energy sector. In our industrial sector. In our ag sector. In our manufacturing sector. That’s how you get to net zero.

It would appear that his first step on this journey is to make a token investment in ‘clean’ energy by way of $539 million in funding for new projects involving hydrogen product and capture & storage, which will apparently be fuelled by both black and brown coal – thereby increasing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions Australia releases into the atmosphere.

This folly was pointed out by ABC News on 21 April 2021:

Getting hydrogen into a pure, useable form takes a lot of energy and this process can produce a lot of emissions.

And so, that is why experts talk about different types of hydrogen — brown, black, grey, blue and green.

Only "green" hydrogen is produced entirely through renewable power and has zero emissions. The others use electricity made by coal (black or brown) or gas (grey), sometimes with carbon capture and storage (blue).

The Government call its hydrogen plans "clean" — a combination of hydrogen from gas and renewables.

The Climate Council says the term is "misleading" for average Australians.

Its website states: "Proponents of fossil-fuelled hydrogen have used this to describe fossil fuel hydrogen linked to carbon capture and storage, as well as renewably sourced hydrogen."

"Only the variety of hydrogen generated with renewables … belongs in our zero emissions future."….

The government insists real progress is being made on CCS technology.

However, many climate scientists believe, when it comes to fossil-fuel energy production, CCS is not a serious alternative to wind and solar power.

Some, like the Climate Council, see it as an attempt to prolong the use of fossil fuels.

"The Gorgon CCS trial has been a big, expensive failure. It is capturing less than half the emissions needed to make CCS viable," the Climate Council's website states.

"CCS is extremely expensive and cannot deliver zero emissions."

"There are still no successful projects operating anywhere in the world."

While The Guardian on April 2021 published these telling quotes:

Harry Guinness, a former Liberal adviser and chief executive of the centre-right thinktank the Blueprint Institute, said the US was planning to spend about 35 times what Australia allocated in the last federal budget on green stimulus, and the government would need to commit to serious finance if Australia was to make a transition to net zero by 2050 as Scott Morrison has said is his preference…..

“Our friends and allies are going to want to see tangible commitments. They’ve been quite clear about that, it’s no mystery,” Guinness said. “If we are in the game of bringing technologies down the cost curve we need finance and incentives, including pricing carbon. Actions speak louder than words.”

Tony Wood, the Grattan Institute’s energy program director, said there was little detail in what the government had announced on Wednesday, making it hard to assess, but that Australia was spending significantly less on hydrogen than some other countries.

He said Australia was also offering support for hydrogen made with fossil fuels where others were backing “green hydrogen” made with renewable energy only.

“I don’t see any evidence that Australia has developed positions that are leading the world,” he said…..

Announcing the funding on Wednesday, Morrison said hydrogen was “zero emissions gas”.

The Greens said as the government planned to support hydrogen made with fossil fuels as well as renewable energy its commitment was “just more cash for coal and gas”. The party’s leader, Adam Bandt, said it paled next to multibillio-dollar green hydrogen commitments by other countries including South Korea, Germany, Spain, France, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

“This government’s obsession with coal and gas is about to cost Australia as other countries invest heavily in green hydrogen, giving them the edge as future markets open up,” Bandt said. “With all our wind and sunshine, this is Australia’s competitive advantage to seize, but it is being lost.”…..

Richie Merzian, the Australia Institute’s climate and energy program director, said it appeared the government was “once again using climate action to support fossil fuel companies”. He said that under current commitments it was possible by 2030 the US would have halved its emissions and the UK cut its emissions by two-thirds but Australia was sitting on a 26% cut while still subsidising fossil fuels…..

I was talking to a public servant climate policy in his portfolio the other day who said 'at least when we were in enviro (dept) we felt like climate policy might relate vaguely to the environment. Now we're just the department for coal and gas. No ones even pretending anymore '

— Polly Hemming (@pollyjhemming) April 21, 2021

Morrison must think the Australian electorate and every OECD government around the world are so monumentally stupid as to not realise that these announcements (and their lack of detail, fuzzy timelines or no guaranteed funding) are solely for the benefit of US President Joe Biden 's two-day virtual Leaders Summit which began on 22 April 2021, with a weather eye out for the twelve-day UN Climate Change Conference (COP 26) to be held in Glasgow during November 2021.

By the time all his half-promises and evasions concerning zero emissions have failed to meet the 2050 target date, Scott Morrison will be 81 years of age and I will be long dead - having lived all my life in a country which only genuinely attempted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for six short years between June 2007 to September 2013.

Commonwealth, Westpac, ANZ & NAB banks spending billions financing the fossil fuel industry

 

The Rainforest Action Network supported by a great many non-government agencies has created an interactive website packed with data and published a report titled BANKING ON CLIMATE CHAOS 2021.

Here are just four excerpts from this report:

• In the 5 years since the Paris Agreement, the world’s 60 biggest banks have financed fossil fuels to the tune of $3.8 trillion. Runaway funding for fossil fuel extraction and infrastructure fuels climate chaos and threatens the lives and livelihoods of millions.

• These banks poured a total of $3.8 trillion into fossil fuels from 2016–2020. Fossil fuel financing dropped 9% last year, parallel to the global drop in fossil fuel demand and production due to the COVID-19 pandemic. And yet 2020 levels remained higher than in 2016, the year immediately following the adoption of the Paris Agreement. The overall fossil fuel financing trend of the last five years is still heading definitively in the wrong direction, reinforcing the need for banks to establish policies that lock in the fossil fuel financing declines of 2020, lest they snap back to business-as-usual in 2021

• JPMorgan Chase remains the world’s worst banker of fossil fuels over this time period, though its funding did drop significantly last year. Citi follows as the second-worst fossil bank, followed by Wells Fargo, Bank of America, RBC, and MUFG. Barclays is the worst in Europe and Bank of China is the worst in China.

• ...the current wave of bank commitments to reduce their financed emissions to “net zero by 2050,” as well as related policies like measuring and disclosing financed emissions, and emphasizes that no bank making a climate commitment for 2050 should be taken seriously unless it also acts on fossil fuels in 2021. Moreover, until the banks prove otherwise, the “net” in “net zero” leaves room for emissions targets that fall short of what the science demands, based on copious offsetting or absurd assumptions about future carbon-capture schemes, as well as the rights violations and fraud that often come hand in hand with offsetting and carbon markets.

According to the report, between 2016 and 2020 the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the National Australia Bank (NAB) committed $6.24 billion and $4.43 billion respectively to the total global financing of the fossil fuel industry. While the ANZ Bank contributed a hefty total of $15.22 billion and Westpac $6.5 billion.

All four banks financed fossil fuel expansion by the top 100 fossil fuel companies, as well as financing fuel production based on tar sands and LNG.

The Commonwealth Bank, ANZ and Westpac financed ventures in the Arctic and offshore areas.

ANZ also financed production companies involved in fracking.

All four banks financed coal mining and coal power companies over the same five year period.

The four banks were given dismal  policy scores out of 200 points, ranging from 13.5 (Westpac), 14 (NAB), 18 (CBA) to 22.5 (ANZ).

Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison, along with 39 other heads of government, will be attending a U.S. Leaders Summit on Climate on April 22 and 23, which will be live streamed for public viewing.

Given his lack of enthusiasm for any “zero emissions” target and his government's paucity of effective climate change mitigation policies, it is highly likely that at this summit Morrison – rather than representing the nation – will be representing the commercial interests of these banks, along with those of the fossil fuel mining & production sectors .

Around the world tolerance is wearing thin for government who don't live up to their promises to tackle climate change

 

The DeSmog Blog post set out below is likely to be the outcome for an Australian  Morrison Government which tries to adopt 'go slow' or 'Claytons' zero emissions targets for 2050 in the fight to stop climate change from increasing in intensity and severity.

A course of inaction which is almost modus operandi for this federal government.

The first indication that this might be the case came when Prime Minister Scott Morrison failed to fully and formally commit to a strong climate change mitigation policy. Rather stating at the Press Club on 1 February 2021 that; “Our goal is to reach net zero emissions as soon as possible, and preferably by 2050”.

The second warning came six days later when Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack said: "There is no way we are going to whack regional Australia, hurt regional Australia, in any way shape or form just to get a target for climate in 2050. We are not going to hurt those wonderful people that put food on our table."

DeSmog Blog, 4 February 2021:

The French state has been found guilty of climate inaction in what campaigners have dubbed “the case of the century”.

Today the Paris administrative court concluded France has failed to do enough to meet its own commitments on the climate crisis and is legally responsible for the ensuing ecological damage.

France is the third European country where legal action by campaigners has highlighted significant failings in state action on climate change and forced politicians to act, after the landmark Urgenda case in the Netherlands in 2019 and the Irish Supreme Court’s decision in the national Climate Case last year.

'Historic win'

Jean-François Julliard, Executive Director of Greenpeace France – one of the four NGOs bringing the case – described the ruling as a “historic win for climate justice”.

“This decision not only takes into consideration what scientists say and what people want from French public policies, but it should also inspire people all over the world to hold their governments accountable for climate change in their own courts,” she said.

“For governments the writing is on the wall: climate justice doesn't care about speeches and empty promises, but about facts.”

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LAffaire du Siècle (case of the century), as it was described by NGOs was brought by Greenpeace France, together with Oxfam France, the Nicolas Hulot Foundation and Notre Affaire à Tous, in December 2018.

The groups filed a legal complaint, saying France was not on track to meet its then target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, its minimum commitment as an EU member. Since then, this target has been raised to 55 percent for all EU member states, but it is not yet clear how President Emmanuel Macron will deliver this given France's track record on cutting emissions.

France’s own High Council on Climate has analysed the country’s progress and found it lacking, with emissions substantially exceeding the first two carbon budgets. France had pledged to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 1.5 percent each year, but they fell by only 0.9 percent from 2018 to 2019. The Climate Change Performance Index also shows France’s climate progress slowing, with limited advances in increasing the share of renewables and in decarbonising transport.

The court judgment ruled that: “Consequently, the state must be regarded as having ignored the first carbon budget and did not carry out the actions that it itself had recognised as being necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

‘Moral damages’

The court said it would not be appropriate to fine the government in this case but would publish measures to fix the problem in two months’ time.

Instead of fines, the French government was ordered to pay one symbolic Euro to each of the four NGOs that brought the case for compensation of “moral damages” – essentially harm to their reputation.

Each of these organisations have worked for years to address global warming through campaigning and advocacy, the judgment noted, and “the faulty shortcomings of the state” in respecting this work “have damaged the collective interests” they defend.

Greenpeace notes that the recognition of ecological damage against a public body in the administrative courts marks a significant moment for environmental law in France…...

Morrison Government determined to turn Clean Energy Finance Corporation into a slush fund for the benefit of its fossil fuel industry mates?

The Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) was established in 2012 to facilitate increased flows of finance into the clean energy sector.

It has been provided with access to $10 billion in capital and

invests directly and indirectly, in clean energy technologies.

These clean energy technologies include: energy efficiency technologies; low emission technologies; and renewable energy technologies.

As of 30 June 2020 CEFC had investment commitments (deployed and contractually committed capital) of $5.95 billion.

The uncommitted $4.05 billion is firmly in the sights of the Morrison Government who would like to see this money go to its major donors in the fossil fuel reliant energy industries.

Commencing with carving our an initial $1 billion to to establish a Grid Reliability Fund to support the largely privatised, heavily coal-reliant, electricity supply corporations.

Clean Energy Finance Corporation Amendment (Grid Reliability Fund) Bill 2020 is back before the House of Representatives today.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 4 February 2021:

Federal Labor remains opposed to a proposed overhaul of Australia's clean energy fund rules aimed at fuelling investment in gas power plants and grid infrastructure despite a shake-up in its approach to climate policy.

The Morrison government's plans to change laws that stop the Clean Energy Finance Corp from investing in conventional fossil fuels and remove a rule that prevents it from investing in loss-making projects will be debated in Federal Parliament today.

The proposed changes will apply to the taxpayer-funded green bank's $1 billion Grid Reliability Fund, making it responsible for an underwriting scheme to encourage private companies to build new power supply.

New climate and energy spokesman Chris Bowen said Labor would only support the changes it if is successful in amending the legislation, including rejecting the proposed definition of gas as a low-emissions energy source.

"Labor created the CEFC and has consistently protected its integrity," Mr Bowen said yesterday, after he last week replaced Mark Butler after seven years in the portfolio.

"We'll be putting forward sensible amendments to ensure the CEFC won't be turned into a slush fund, and can only invest in economically viable, clean energy projects.

"If the government is able to move past its paralysing internal climate wars and accept these amendments, we will support the bill."….

The CEFC was created in 2012 under a deal between Labor, the Greens and independents with a mandate to invest in renewable energy, low-emissions technology and energy-efficiency projects that would deliver a return. 

Australian Prime Minster Morrison & Foreign Minster Payne not as sanguine about trading partners' pledges of zero green house gas emission targets as they pretend?

This was Australian Prime Minister and Liberal MP for Cook Scott Morrison after the world left this country even further behind with regard to climate change policy and emissions reduction targets…..

The Sydney Morning Herald, 28 October 2020:

Prime Minister Scott Morrison says he will not be dictated to by other governments' climate change goals, declaring he is not worried about the future of Australia's exports despite four of the country's top trading partners adopting net-zero emissions targets.

China, Japan, Britain and South Korea, which account for more than $310 billion in Australian annual trade between them, have all now adopted the emissions target by 2050 or 2060, ramping up pressure on Australia's fossil fuel industry. Coal and natural gas alone are worth more than 25 per cent of Australia's exports, or $110 billion each year….

Major Australian export companies such as Rio Tinto, BHP, major agriculture groups and multinational food companies are pursuing carbon neutrality, which experts say is a move to avoid being stung with trade tariffs or charges by countries that have set net-zero targets….

Australian Foreign Affairs Minister and Liberal Senator Marise Payne was just as stubborn as her own prime minister.

However, it was made obvious by at least one other media article published the next day that Morrison was perhaps uncomfortable with the situation and how it might read to the general public.

The Guardian, 29 October 2019:

The Morrison government has quietly appointed an expert panel to come up with new ways to cut greenhouse gas emissions and given it less than a month to come up with recommendations.

In what is being seen by observers as an acknowledgment that its main climate change policy, the $2.55bn emissions reduction fund, is failing to cut national pollution, the government has appointed a panel of four business leaders and policy experts to suggest options to expand it.

The panel is headed by Grant King, the outgoing president of the Business Council of Australia and a former chief executive of Origin Energy. It was appointed by the minister for emissions reduction, Angus Taylor, in mid-October but has not been made public…..

The panel has been established despite Morrison and Taylor maintaining they have set out “to the last tonne” of carbon dioxide how Australia will meet the 2030 emissions target announced before the Paris climate conference . In reality, national emissions have risen each year since 2015  and most analyses  suggest the government will not reach the goal, a 26%-28% cut below 2005 levels, under current policies…..

Expert Panel examining oppo... by The Guardian

https://www.scribd.com/document/432470725/Expert-Panel-examining-opportunities-for-further-abatement

BACKGROUND

The Sydney Morning Herald, 28 October 2019:

Australia's carbon emissions appear to have edged higher in the final quarter of the 2018-19 financial year, delaying the downward trajectory the nation needs in order to hit the country's Paris climate goals.

National emissions are projected to have reached 134.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e) in April-June 2019, according to Ndevr Environmental Consultants, an environmental auditing company with a track record of accurately estimating the nation's emissions.

That total would come in about 900,000 tonnes of CO2-e more than for the previous three months, Ndevr said in a report based on public data and sector estimates. The tally would be less - by a similar amount - than the fourth quarter of 2017-18.

For the whole year, emissions were modestly higher than for previous 12 months, marking three consecutive years of increases. Excluding land-use changes - such as deforestation or tree planting - annual emissions have risen for the five years since the Abbott government scrapped the carbon price in 2014…..

Morrison Government continues to drag its feet on national greenhouse gas emissions reduction

Renew Economy, 21 September 2020:

Morrison said, of net zero emissions:

"Well, as you know, our policy is to achieve that in the second half of this century, and I certainly will achieve that, and that’s why this week’s announcements were so important because it was about the technology we need to invest in now, which will make it a reality, particularly on the other side of 2030. The target that you’ve talked about becomes absolutely achievable. I’m interested in doing the things that make that happen. I think that is very achievable"…..

Morrison was, in fact, effectively stating that Australia would reach net zero emissions by 2100. Heck, what’s a half-century between friends?

In fact, Australia’s Paris climate agreement targets are neatly aligned with reaching net zero by 2100, whereas Labor’s old 45% by 2030 targets were aligned with net zero by 2050 (the far safer option). Unfortunately, the latest projections from the government are wildly off course, not only for net zero by 2050, but also for net zero by 2100….

If the rate of yearly emissions drops between 2020 and 2030 in Australia’s government projections continue, by my own reckoning, Australia will reach net zero emissions in the year 2300….

The Guardian, 22 September 2020:

The Morrison government’s rejection of a net zero emissions target for 2050 is at odds with the Paris agreement and more than 100 countries that have backed the goal, according to some of Australia’s most experienced climate experts..... 

countries in Paris including Australia had specifically asked the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to examine what 1.5C of heating would mean, and what needed to be done to avoid it. 

The resulting report, released in 2018, found global emissions needed to effectively be cut in half by 2030 – to be 45% below 2010 levels – and to reach net zero by 2050. It found staying within 2C heating would require net zero by 2070, but the impact of that was likely to be far worse. 

Australia chose to stick with its existing 2030 target of a 26% to 28% cut below 2005 levels and is yet to set a date to reach net zero.....

By contrast, [Erwin] Jackson said, Australia was “confusing the market”. “On the one hand, it has signed up to an international agreement that is supposed to put it on a path to net zero emissions by no later than 2050,” he said. “On the other, it keeps talking about ‘low emissions’. We’ve moved on from a conversation about low emissions. Globally, we have recognised we need to get to zero emissions.”

BACKGROUND

Australia is almost standing still when it comes to reducing its national annual greenhouse gas emissions. At the end of 19 calendar years in 2019 federal government policy has only resulted in our annual greenhouse gas emissions falling by a trifling 18.5 metric tonnes in comparison with the annual emissions at the end of the year 2000.

Estimated National Greenhouse Gas Emissions in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent or MTCO2e over last 20 years - includes Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry:

2000 - 551 Mt CO2-e

2001 - 570 Mt CO2-e

2002 - 568 Mt CO2-e

2003 - 561 Mt CO2-e

2004 - 574 Mt CO2-e

2005 - 597 Mt CO2-e 

2006 - 610 Mt CO2-e

2007 - 606 Mt CO2-e

2008 - 590 Mt CO2-e 

2009 - 584 Mt CO2-e 

2010 - 543 Mt CO2-e

2011 - 546.3 Mt CO2-e

2012 - 551.9 Mt CO2-e (total excludes Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry)

2013 - 538.4Mt CO2-e

2014 - 535.9 Mt CO2-e 

2015 - 535.7 Mt CO2-e

2016 – 543.3 Mt CO2-e

2017 – 533.7 Mt CO2-e

2018 – 532.5 Mt CO2-e 

2019 – 532.5 Mt CO2-e (this annual total marks a difference of only -18.5 Mt CO2-e compared with the year 2000 annual total)

2020 – 528.7 Mt CO2-e (total up to 30 March)

Note:

Unadjusted figures found in Australian Government National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Quarterly updates.and at Australian Dept. of Environment and Energy.

The estimated totals from 2000 to 2009 are from Dept. of Energy and Environment.

Fact of the Day

There are est. 197 countries around the globe & of these Australia is the 14th highest emitter of greenhouse gases, is still the highest per capita emitter in the OECD & is the 5th biggest miner of fossil fuel carbon. 

For a developed country of less than 26 million people Australia has a carbon dioxide monthly average in the vicinity of 405.59 ppm in the atmosphere over its land mass and national waters - which is only 1.81ppm below the global monthly average produced by a world population of 7.8 billion people in 2018.

Due to the amount of forest currently unable to function as high level carbon sinks because of the 2019-20 bushfires, Australia is expected to add an additional 2 per cent to the atmospheric carbon dioxide ppm total in 2020.

[Source: The Australia Institute, July 2019, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division, December 2018, UK Met Office, January 2020  & countries-ofthe-world.com] 

Australia's 2019-20 bushfire season expected to increase total global atmospheric greenhouse gases by est. 2 per cent this year

According to NOAA Climate.gov; The global average atmospheric carbon dioxide in 2018 was 407.4 parts per million (ppm for short), with a range of uncertainty of plus or minus 0.1 ppm. Carbon dioxide levels today are higher than at any point in at least the past 800,000 years.

With the ability of Australia's east coast forests to act as carbon sinks severely impacted by bushfires and air pollutants released by these fires to date circumnavigating the earth, it was to be expected that the amount of carbon dioxide parts per million in the atmosphere will rise sharply in 2020.

UK Met Office, media release, 24 January 2020:

A forecast of the atmospheric concentration of carbon-dioxide shows that 2020 will witness one of the largest annual rises in concentration since measurements began at Mauna Loa, in Hawaii, 1958.

During the year the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ is expected to peak above 417 parts per million in May, while the average for the year is forecast to be 414.2 ± 0.6ppm. This annual average represents a 2.74 ± 0.57 ppm rise on the average for 2019. While human-caused emissions cause the CO₂ rise in concentration, impacts of weather patterns on global ecosystems are predicted to increase the rise by 10% this year. Emissions from the recent Australian bushfires contribute up to one-fifth of this increase.

Professor Richard Betts MBE, of the Met Office Hadley Centre and University of Exeter, said: “Although the series of annual levels of CO₂ have always seen a year-on-year increase since 1958, driven by fossil fuel burning and deforestation, the rate of rise isn’t perfectly even because there are fluctuations in the response of ecosystem carbon sinks, especially tropical forests. Overall these are expected to be weaker than normal for a second year running.”

Weather patterns linked to year-by-year swings in Pacific Ocean temperatures are known to affect the uptake of carbon-dioxide by land ecosystems. In years with a warmer tropical Pacific, many regions become warmer and drier, which limits the ability of plants to grow and absorb CO₂ and increases the risk of wildfires which release further emissions. Along with other weather patterns and human-induced climate change, this has contributed to the recent hot, dry weather in Australia, which played a key role in the severity of the bushfires.

Professor Betts added: “The success of our previous forecasts has shown that the year-to-year variability in the rate of rise of CO₂ in the atmosphere is affected more by the strength of ecosystem carbon sinks and sources than year-to-year changes in human-induced emissions. Nevertheless, the anthropogenic emissions are still the overall driver of the long-term rise in concentrations.”

The CO₂ concentrations at Mauna Loa are measured by the Scripps Institution for Oceanography at UC San Diego and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Fire emissions are monitored by the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED).

The 2020 CO₂ forecast is available here.

As far as I can tell, it is likely that before 2020 draws to an end the atmosphere above the Australian land mass and coastal waters will probably contain at least est. 406.138 to 411 parts per million of carbon dioxide.

A carbon dioxide concentration of 400 parts per million is considered unsafe - a danger warning - and Morrison Government denialist-based climate change policy is making sure that we are now well and truly exceeding that figure.

The average surface temperatures over the Australian continent and its surrounding oceans have increased by nearly 1°C since the beginning of the 20th century.

This global rise saw land surface temperature in the NSW Northern rivers region rise by somewhere between 1°C and 1.4°C by 2014, with most of that warming occurring since 1950.

How hot will this region become in 2020?

Just in time for Christmas the Morrison Government's risible greenhouse gas emission projections up to 2030 have been released

Well the federal parliament closed its doors for the year in early December so there is going to be no questioning of the Morrison Government on the floor of the House of Representatives until 4 February 2020.

It follows that it was time to release some of the government untruths packaged between paper covers or boxed in a PDF - just in time for Christmas.

On the first Tuesday of December the Morrison Government released
Australia’s emissions projections 2019, accompanied by a misleading fanfare from the Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction & Liberal MP for Hume, Angus Taylor.

In part this emissions fairytale tells us that:

Australia’s 2030 target (26–28 per cent below 2005 levels) 

• Emissions in 2030 are projected to be 511 Mt CO2 -e, 52 Mt CO2 -e lower than the 2018 estimate for 2030 of 563 Mt CO2 -e. 

• To achieve Australia’s 2030 target of 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels, emissions reductions of 395 to 462 Mt CO2 -e between 2021 and 2030 are required. When overachievement of 411 Mt CO2 -e from previous targets is included, Australia will overachieve by 16 Mt CO2 -e (26 per cent reduction) and will require 51 Mt CO2 -e of cumulative emissions reduction between 2021 and 2030 to meet the 28 per cent reduction target. 

• Compared to the 2018 projections, the downward revision in the 2019 projections reflects: 

– the inclusion of the Climate Solutions Fund which will reduce emissions by 103 Mt CO2 -e, particularly in the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector;

 – the inclusion of other measures in the Climate Solutions Package including energy efficiency measures in the electricity and direct combustion sectors; 

– stronger renewables deployment – due to increased uptake of small and mid-scale solar photovoltaics (PV) projected by the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) and Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), and the inclusion of 50 per cent renewable energy targets in Victoria, Queensland and the Northern Territory; and 

– updated forecasts of electricity demand.

Sounds good until you look at the numbers.

In the original Kyoto Agreement Australia's baseline for accounting greenhouse gas emissions was 1990 and total national greenhouse gas emissions for that year were recorded as 610MT CO2-e.

Australia came away unhappy with the conference outcome, so bitched and griped at every turn until the baseline was moved, eventually being extended out to 2005.

In 2005 Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions were 611MT CO2-e if land use is included. The total changes to 522MT CO2-e if land use is excluded. 

The predictions for 2030 in the recent emissions projections are 511MT CO2-e land use included and 521MT CO2-e land use excluded.

There is a 100 point drop in the 2030 projection including land use and a 1 point drop with land use excluded.

It's  still a reduction right? Even if the Morrison Government got there by using an accounting trick?

Well no. Because - even with the carryover 'carbon credits' accounting trick which allows the the Morrison Government to subtract a total of 411MT CO-e from greenhouse gas emissions across selected annual totals - Australia is not meeting the undertakings made to the international community at the U.N. 2015 Paris climate change conference (COP 21).

In fact we have spent the six years between 2013 (when emissions total was 530MT CO2-e) and 2019 (when emissions total was 532MT CO2-e) just treading water, while the days and nights became hotter, our rivers ran dry and our forests burned. 

Next year emissions are expected to rise again to what they were in 2014, 534MT CO2-e.

In Paris Australia agreed to reduce national greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030.

That would mean that Australia's emissions target in 2030 should be somewhere between 440MT CO2-e and 450MT CO2-e.

There is a shortfall in meeting those targets.

With land use included the target shortfall in projections is between est. 59MT CO2-e and 71MT CO2-e. With land use excluded the shortfall is between est. 69MT CO2-e and 81MT CO2-e.

That is a lot of mega tonnes. Especially if we were to correct the Morrison Govenment's creative accounting and remove this carryover credits from the equation.

Then the 2030 emissions reduction target shortfall would probably grow by arround est. 80-84 per cent.

Angus Taylor attended the 2-13 December 2019 UN Madrid Climate Change Conference (COP25) armed with his copy of that creative government accounting - probably believing that representatives of other nations would find his spiel believable. Though I rather suspect whenever he was at the other end of the room a number would have had their heads together quietly laughing at him. 

Notes:

Emissions are recorded as totalling 532MT CO2-e In 2018 and 2019. However using Morrison & Co's accounting trick it is reduced to a total of 328MT CO2-e in 2018 and -6MT CO2-e in 2019. See http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/4aa038fc-b9ee-4694-99d0-c5346afb5bfb/files/aust-emissions-projects-chart-data-2019.xlsx.

All data the Australia's emissions projections 2019 relies on can be found at -
http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/emissions-projections-2019.

If readers want emissions totals & projections per year from 1990 to 2030 in a more digestible form, there is currently an interactive graph at -
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/dec/10/the-coalition-isnt-being-honest-about-the-climate-crisis-but-neither-is-labor.