Just in time for Christmas the Morrison Government's risible greenhouse gas emission projections up to 2030 have been released

Well the federal parliament closed its doors for the year in early December so there is going to be no questioning of the Morrison Government on the floor of the House of Representatives until 4 February 2020.

It follows that it was time to release some of the government untruths packaged between paper covers or boxed in a PDF - just in time for Christmas.

On the first Tuesday of December the Morrison Government released
Australia’s emissions projections 2019, accompanied by a misleading fanfare from the Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction & Liberal MP for Hume, Angus Taylor.

In part this emissions fairytale tells us that:

Australia’s 2030 target (26–28 per cent below 2005 levels) 

• Emissions in 2030 are projected to be 511 Mt CO2 -e, 52 Mt CO2 -e lower than the 2018 estimate for 2030 of 563 Mt CO2 -e. 

• To achieve Australia’s 2030 target of 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels, emissions reductions of 395 to 462 Mt CO2 -e between 2021 and 2030 are required. When overachievement of 411 Mt CO2 -e from previous targets is included, Australia will overachieve by 16 Mt CO2 -e (26 per cent reduction) and will require 51 Mt CO2 -e of cumulative emissions reduction between 2021 and 2030 to meet the 28 per cent reduction target. 

• Compared to the 2018 projections, the downward revision in the 2019 projections reflects: 

– the inclusion of the Climate Solutions Fund which will reduce emissions by 103 Mt CO2 -e, particularly in the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector;

 – the inclusion of other measures in the Climate Solutions Package including energy efficiency measures in the electricity and direct combustion sectors; 

– stronger renewables deployment – due to increased uptake of small and mid-scale solar photovoltaics (PV) projected by the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) and Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), and the inclusion of 50 per cent renewable energy targets in Victoria, Queensland and the Northern Territory; and 

– updated forecasts of electricity demand.

Sounds good until you look at the numbers.

In the original Kyoto Agreement Australia's baseline for accounting greenhouse gas emissions was 1990 and total national greenhouse gas emissions for that year were recorded as 610MT CO2-e.

Australia came away unhappy with the conference outcome, so bitched and griped at every turn until the baseline was moved, eventually being extended out to 2005.

In 2005 Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions were 611MT CO2-e if land use is included. The total changes to 522MT CO2-e if land use is excluded. 

The predictions for 2030 in the recent emissions projections are 511MT CO2-e land use included and 521MT CO2-e land use excluded.

There is a 100 point drop in the 2030 projection including land use and a 1 point drop with land use excluded.

It's  still a reduction right? Even if the Morrison Government got there by using an accounting trick?

Well no. Because - even with the carryover 'carbon credits' accounting trick which allows the the Morrison Government to subtract a total of 411MT CO-e from greenhouse gas emissions across selected annual totals - Australia is not meeting the undertakings made to the international community at the U.N. 2015 Paris climate change conference (COP 21).

In fact we have spent the six years between 2013 (when emissions total was 530MT CO2-e) and 2019 (when emissions total was 532MT CO2-e) just treading water, while the days and nights became hotter, our rivers ran dry and our forests burned. 

Next year emissions are expected to rise again to what they were in 2014, 534MT CO2-e.

In Paris Australia agreed to reduce national greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030.

That would mean that Australia's emissions target in 2030 should be somewhere between 440MT CO2-e and 450MT CO2-e.

There is a shortfall in meeting those targets.

With land use included the target shortfall in projections is between est. 59MT CO2-e and 71MT CO2-e. With land use excluded the shortfall is between est. 69MT CO2-e and 81MT CO2-e.

That is a lot of mega tonnes. Especially if we were to correct the Morrison Govenment's creative accounting and remove this carryover credits from the equation.

Then the 2030 emissions reduction target shortfall would probably grow by arround est. 80-84 per cent.

Angus Taylor attended the 2-13 December 2019 UN Madrid Climate Change Conference (COP25) armed with his copy of that creative government accounting - probably believing that representatives of other nations would find his spiel believable. Though I rather suspect whenever he was at the other end of the room a number would have had their heads together quietly laughing at him. 

Notes:

Emissions are recorded as totalling 532MT CO2-e In 2018 and 2019. However using Morrison & Co's accounting trick it is reduced to a total of 328MT CO2-e in 2018 and -6MT CO2-e in 2019. See http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/4aa038fc-b9ee-4694-99d0-c5346afb5bfb/files/aust-emissions-projects-chart-data-2019.xlsx.

All data the Australia's emissions projections 2019 relies on can be found at -
http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/emissions-projections-2019.

If readers want emissions totals & projections per year from 1990 to 2030 in a more digestible form, there is currently an interactive graph at -
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/dec/10/the-coalition-isnt-being-honest-about-the-climate-crisis-but-neither-is-labor.

There is no stepping back from the fact that Australia is a significant factor in spreading the cancer of greenhouse gas pollution across the Earth's atmosphere

Australia's annual greenhouse gas emissions for the year to December 2015 were est. 529.2 Mt CO-e and annual greenhouse gas emissions for the year to December 2017 were estimated to be 533.7 Mt CO2-e.

By the year to June 2019 (and with 6 months of the year yet to go) greenhouse gas emissions were estimated to be 532.0 Mt CO2-e.

Now the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government has always been fond of implying that figures such as these do not matter - saying that Australia is only a minor contributor to global emissions at est. 1.3% of the combined world total.

However, there is no stepping back from the fact that Australia is a significant factor in spreading the cancer of greenhouse gas pollution across the Earth's atmosphere.

In part because successive Australian federal and state government have encouraged investment in the mining of our natural resources.

Just 100 of all the hundreds of thousands of companies in the world have been responsible for 70.6% of all global greenhouse gas emissions that caused global warming in the 27 year period between 1988 and 2015, according to The Carbon Majors Database, a report published by the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) in 2017.

These 100 fossil fuel industry companies can be broken down into the following categories:

41 publicly listed investor-owned;

16 privately held investor-owned;

36 state-owned; and

7 state producers.

The top 50 of these companies are:

China Coal Group

Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco)

National Iranian Oil Co

ExxonMobil Corp operating in Australia since 1895

Coal India Limited planning to acquire assets in Australia

Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex)

Russia Coal Co

Royal Dutch Shell PLC operating in Australia

China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) operating in Australia

BP PLC operating in Australia

Chevron Corp operating in Australia

Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA)

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co

Poland Coal

Peabody Energy Corp operating in Australia

Sonatrach SPA

Kuwait Petroleum Corp

Total SA operating in Australia

BHP Billiton Ltd operating in Australia

ConocoPhillips operating in Australia

Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras)

Lukoil OAO operating in Australia

Rio Tinto operating in Australia

Nigerian National Petroleum Corp

Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas)

Rosneft OAO

Arch Coal Inc operating in Australia

Iraq National Oil Co

Eni SPA operating in Australia

Anglo American operating in Australia

Surgutneftegas

Alpha Natural Resources Inc operated in Australia

Qatar Petroleum Corp

Pertamina

Kazakhstan Coal

Statoil ASA operating in Australia

National Oil Corporation of Libya

Consol Energy Inc operating in Australia

Ukraine Coal

Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd operating in Australia

Glencore PLC operating in Australia

TurkmenGaz

Sasol Ltd operating in Australia

Repsol SA operating in Australia

Anadarko Petroleum Corp

Egyptian General Petroleum Corp

Petroleum Development Oman

Czech Republic Coa.

Between them these 50 companies were responsible for est. 63.2% of the cumulative global greenhouse gas emissions between1988 and 2015 according to the CDP report.

The report also recorded global emissions for the year 2015 in which the following companies were listed as contributing significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions:

Shenhua Group Corp Ltd (2% global CO2-e) operating in Australia

Shandong Energy Group Co Ltd (0.7% global CO2-e) operating in Australia. 

In the face of the increasing negative impacts from climate change, Australia allows 22 of the world's top polluters to conduct business in Australia without even a pretence of limiting their greenhouse gas emissions. 

Australian Election Study survey conducted after 2019 federal election found Scott Morrison is most popular leader since 2007 - but not as popular as Kevin Rudd in his heigh day

The Australian Election Study (AES) has surveyed voters since 1987. With the exception of 1987 and 2007 the survey has been funded by the Australian Research Council and its predecessors.

AES surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,179 voters after the 2019 Australian federal election to find out what shaped their choices in the election.

The respondents were composed of two groups - those who originally took part in the 2016 Australian Election Study and those who were newly surveyed for the 2019 study.

apo.og.au, Australian Election Study, 6 December 2019, Sarah Cameron, Ian McAllister, 2019 Australian federal election: results from the Australian Election Study, Description, excerpt: 

Highlights: 

Policy issues 

• A majority of voters (66%) cast their ballots based on policy issues. 

• The most important issues in the election identified by voters include management of the economy (24%), health (22%) and environmental issues (21%). 

• Voters preferred the Coalition’s policies on management of the economy, taxation, and immigration. 

• Voters preferred Labor’s policies on education, health, and the environment. 

Leaders

• Scott Morrison is the most popular political leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, scoring 5.1 on a zero to 10 popularity scale. [Note: In 2007 AES recorded Kevin Rudd as 6.3 on a zero to 10 popularity scale**]

• Bill Shorten is the least popular leader of a major political party since 1990. 

• A majority of voters (74%) disapproved of the way the Liberal Party handled the leadership change in 2018, when Scott Morrison replaced Malcolm Turnbull. 

Political trust 

• Satisfaction with democracy is at its lowest level (59%) since the constitutional crisis of the 1970s. 

• Trust in government has reached its lowest level on record, with just 25% believing people in government can be trusted. 

• 56% of Australians believe that the government is run for ‘a few big interests’, while just 12% believe the government is run for ‘all the people’.  [my additional notation]

According to AES in 2007 eighty-six per cent of Australians were satisfied with the way democracy was working. However since then democratic satisfaction has fallen by twenty-seven per cent and “there has been a pattern of declining citizen trust in the political system. Trust has not declined significantly since the 2016 election, but nor has it recovered from record low levels”. 

That 2019 record low trust level represented a twenty percent decline after 2007.

In the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison years the perception that people in government look after themselves rose from 66% in 2013 to 74% in 2016 and 75% in 2019.

After the 2019 federal election only 1 in 4 Australians believe that people in government can be trusted to do the right thing.

The complete study can be read and downloaded here.

** other leaders besides Kevin Rudd who have gone to an election with an AES popularity score higher than that of Scott Morrison were; Bob Hawke (1987 & 1990), Kim Beazley (1988 & 2001), John Howard (1993,1996, 1998, 2001, 2004) and John Hewson (1993).

A quote that resonates down the years to Australia in 2019

"What is courage? We know it by instinct. We see it. We feel it.
Courage is a firefighter standing before the gates of hell unflinching, unyielding with eyes of steel saying, “Here I stand, I can do no other. 
Courage is neighbour saving neighbour. 
Courage is stranger saving stranger."
[Then Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, National Day of Mourning speech, February 2009]

Australian political leaders and voter perception at the end of 2019

On 8 December 2019 The Australian published its final Newspoll survey for the year.

This YouGov poll of voter intentions/attitude is now an online survey of 1,519 respondents.

It is interesting to note that although both leaders' net satisfaction ratings are in negative territory (Anthony Albanese -1 and Scott Morrison -3) it is Scott Morrison who has been trailing since 10 November 2019.

One has to wonder if the prime minister's underwhelming performance during this unprecedented bushfire season has begun to change voter perceptions.

The Australian, 9 December 2019, p.4:

While Mr Morrison was regarded as being a stronger and more decisive leader than Mr ­Albanese, voters believed he was also more arrogant....

On this measure, 58 per cent of people described the Prime Minister as arrogant compared with 40 per cent assigning this attribute to Mr Albanese.

Both leaders were regarded as being more or less equally trustworthy, which reverses the trend between Mr Morrison and Mr Shorten where the gap was seven points in favour of Mr Morrison. Mr Albanese also levelled the playing field on likeability, with Mr Morrison previously holding a large margin over Mr Shorten.

On the measures of being in touch with voters and understanding the major issues, there was little daylight between the leaders.

But Mr Albanese was regarded as being more caring for people, while Mr Morrison was regarded as being more experienced.....

Are koalas on NSW North Coast now facing local extinction?

SBS News, 9 December 2019:

Paul the koala in the ICU recovering from burns at The Port Macquarie Koala Hospital on November 29, 2019. Source: Getty

NSW parliament's upper house will hold an urgent hearing on the extent of damage to the koala population from the recent bushfires, with 2,000 feared dead. 

An inquiry into koala populations and habitat in NSW is expected to hear evidence that more than 2,000 of the native Australian marsupial may have died on the state's north coast in recent bushfires. 

The state parliament's upper house inquiry will hold an urgent hearing on Monday to discuss the extent of damage to the koala population from bushfires. 

Thousands of hectares of koala habitat across northern NSW and southeast Queensland have been destroyed in the recent bushfires. 

Koalas are listed as vulnerable in Queensland, NSW and the ACT, largely a result of habitat clearing......

A dehydrated and injured Koala receives treatment at the Port Macquarie Koala Hospital. Source Getty

North East Forest Alliance president and ecologist Dailan Pugh is expected to give evidence on Monday that more than 2,000 koalas may have died and up to one-third of koala habitat on the state's north coast may have been lost in the fires..... 

Port Macquarie Koala Hospital's clinical director Cheyne Flanagan and Indigenous fire practitioners are also due to give evidence, as well as representatives of the National Parks and Wildlife Service and the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment....

The Guardian, 9 December 2019:

Photograph: Supplied by Jimboomba Police

Mark Graham, an ecologist with the Nature Conservation Council, told the inquiry that koalas in most instances “really have no capacity to move fast enough to get away” from fast-moving crown fires that spread from treetop to treetop.

“The fires have burned so hot and so fast that there has been significant mortality of animals in the trees, but there is such a big area now that is still on fire and still burning that we will probably never find the bodies,” Graham said.

The crown fires which have torn through broad expanses of NSW north coast forest, a known biodiversity hotspot, were unprecedented.

“We’ve lost such a massive swath of known koala habitat that I think we can say without any doubt there will be ongoing declines in koala populations from this point forward,” Graham said.

Science for Wildlife executive director Dr Kellie Leigh told the hearing there was no resources or planning in place to save koala populations in the Blue Mountains from fires currently threatening the region.

“We’re getting a lot of lessons out of this and it’s just showing how unprepared we are,” Dr Leigh said on Monday.

“There’s no procedures or protocols in place ... even wildlife carers don’t have protocols for when they can go in after fire.”

The Blue Mountains fires have already hit two-thirds of the northern population the organisation has studied and one-third of the Kanangra-Boyd National Park population, Dr Leigh said......

Echo NetDaily, 9 December 2019:

Prior to the current bushfires koalas were at risk of major population decline through habitat loss and logging but with significant areas of their habitat being burnt out by bushfire many of the previously stable colonies are on the verge of collapse. Recognising the disastrous impact that the fires are having on koala populations a call is being put out to the NSW government to stop logging of koala habitat.

A number of groups appearing before today’s NSW Legislative Council inquiry into koala populations and habitat in New South Wales have requested the committee actively call on the NSW government to put in place a moratorium on logging koala habitat across public and private lands as an emergency response to the loss of thousands of koalas and their habitat due to wildfires....

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David Rowe

David Rowe