NEWSPOLL APRIL 2023: Dutton's dismal leadership does not impress the average voter

 

Hot on the heels of the Liberal Party loss in the Aston by-election "The Australian" released its latest YouGov Newspoll.

The headline statistic was the preference flows based on survey respondents stated voting intentions on 2 April combined with recent federal and state elections.

Two Party Preferred Graph 28 Jan 2019 to 2 April 2023

Click on image to enlarge

Labor Party 55 (+1) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 44 (-1) on 2 April 2023

Five days before the last federal election held on 25 May 2022, the two party preferred numbers had Labor standing at 53 (-1) and Liberal-Nationals at 47 (+1).

Primary/First Preference voting intentions on 2 April 2023 

Labor 38 (+1)

Liberal-Nationals 33 (-2)

Greens 10 (no change)

One Nation 8 (+1)

 Better/Preferred Prime Minister

Antony Albanese 58 (+4)

Peter Dutton 26 (-2)

Unsure 16 (-2)

Albanese has outstripped Dutton as better/preferred prime minister by a wide margin in every Newspoll since the 21 May 2022 election.

Click on image to enlarge

Leaders Approval Rating

Anthony Albanese - Approve 56 (+1)  Disapprove 35 (-3)

Peter Dutton - Approve 35 (-2)  Disapprove 48 (no change) 

It would appear that in the estimation of the national electorate, Peter Dutton and the Liberal-Nationals Coalition he has led for the last ten months rate even lower than Scott Morrison and the Liberal-Nationals team he led to a loss of national government on 21 May 2022.

  

Last Newspoll of the 2022 federal election campaign

The Australian, Newspoll, published evening of 20 May2022
Click on image to enlarge

Primary Vote Percentages

Labor - 36 (down 2)

Coalition - 35 (no change)

Greens - 12 ( up 1) 

One Nation - 5 (down 1)

United Australia Party - 3 (no change)

Others - 8 (no change)

Two Party Preferred Percentages 

Labor - 53 (down 1)

Coalition - 47 (up 1) 

If the election had been held on 20 May 2022 then it is likely Labor would have won government with est. 80 seats to the Coalition's est. 65 seats.

However, this prediction is based on 2019 preference flows and the list of independent & minor party candidates was not as long in that federal general election nor the public appetite seemingly so strong for unaligned candidates.

It's far too early to count Australia's 2022 federal election chickens

Since 13 February 2022 there have been 11 voter intention surveys published by the four major political survey companies – Newspoll, Ipsos, Resolve and Morgan Research.

None of these 11 surveys predicts that the Morrison Government will get re-elected in 2022.

However, investing in the idea that surveys indicate exactly what est.17,228,900 voters will decide as their pencils hover over ballot papers is dangerous for all concerned.

Nothing is a foregone conclusion. Every voter needs to make a well considered choice, because every voter has to live with the consequences of their vote.

On Saturday 18 May 2019 the national electorate went to polling booths all around Australia to elect a federal government.

The Australian, 8 May 2022
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The day before “The Australian” newspaper published a Newspoll voter intention survey result which indicated that there was a 3 percentage point difference between Labor and the Coalition which – given the consistent poll results since 4 February 2018 favouring Labor – was considered by many political pundits to firm up the likelihood that Labor would form government the next day.

That didn’t happen. The Liberal-Nationals Coalition formed government with 77 out of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives, leaving the Labor Party Party holding 68 seats, Independents 3 and The Greens, Centre Alliance & Katter’s Australia Party all holding one seat each.

Right now the nation is just 11 days out from the 21 May 2022 federal election and, since 27 June 2021 consecutive Newspolls have developed a wide gap between Labor and the Coalition similar to the gaps that existed on Newspoll graphs in the lead up to the 2019 election.

Thirteen days out from the 2022 federal election there was an 8 percentage point difference in Labor’s favour in the Newspoll survey published last Sunday.

Expect the difference to tighten as election day gets closer.

Expect the predominately right-wing mainstream media (with a few shining exceptions) to take leave of its collective senses over the next 11 days as it fights to keep Scott Morrison in government.

Last Newspoll before 2022 federal general election was announced

 

Newspoll published on The Australian on 10 April 2022. Based on YouGov survey of 1,506 respondents conducted between 6 and 9 April.

RESULT

First Preference

Labor – 37% (-1)

Coalition – 36% (0)

Greens – 10% (0)

United Australia Party – 4% (+1)

One Nation – 3% (0)

Others – 10%

Two-Party Preferred 4 February 2018 to 10 April 2022

Click on image to enlarge

Two-Party Preferred 6-9 April 2022

Labor – 53% (-1)

Coalition – 47% (+1)

Based on Anthony Green’s Election Calculator this Two-Party Preferred result would see a 4.4% swing to Labor with 80 seats won (a gain of 11 seats) to Coalition with 65 seats won (a loss of 11 seats) and Minor Parties/Independents with 6 seats won - after factoring in retiring and sophomore MPs.

Preferred PM

Morrison (Coalition) – 44 (+1)

Albanese (Labor) – 39 (-3)

Uncommitted – 17 (+2)

Leaders Performance

Albanese – Approve 42 (-1) Disapprove 45 (+1)

Morrison – Approve 42 (0) Disapprove 54 (0)

Note:

Survey margin of error is ±2.5%

Comparing the Polls

IMAGE: 9 News, 10 April 2022
Click on image to enlarge

Another bad Newspoll for the Coalition published on 27 February 2022. But which Morrison Government MPs might lose their seats if the election night results were as bad?

GRAPH: The Australian

 

Newspoll published 27 February 2022 in The Australian.

Survey conducted by YouGov on 23-26 February 2022.

Federal Primary Votes:

Coalition 35% (up 1)

Labor 41% (unchanged)

Greens 9% (up 1)

United Australia Party 4%

One Nation 3% (unchanged)

Federal Two-Party Preferred Vote:

Coalition 45% (unchanged)

Labor 55% (unchanged)

Preferred Prime Minister:

Morrison 42% (down 1)

Albanese 40% (up 2)

Unsure 18%

Albanese Performance:

Approve 44% (up 4) Disapprove% 43 (down 3)

Morrison Performance:

Approve 43% (up 3) Disapprove 55% (down 1)

Based on Antony Green’s Election Calculator if a federal general election had been held on 26 February then Labor would have gained government with 92 seats in the House of Representatives to the Coalition’s 53 seats and, other parties/independents would have held 6 seats.

Under this scenario Labor would gain 23 former Coalition seats and it might lead to a potential outcome such as this:

Banks NSW ALP 0.2% - David Coleman MP defeated

Ryan QLD ALP 0.5% - Julian Simmonds MP defeated

Hasluck WA ALP 0.7% - Ken Wyatt MP defeated

Menzies VIC ALP 1.0% - new Liberal candidate Keith Wolahan defeated

Bennelong NSW ALP 1.1% - no new Liberal candidate to date but defeat expected

Lindsay NSW ALP 1.5% - Melissa McIntosh MP defeated

La Trobe VIC ALP 1.6% - Jason Wood MP defeated

Brisbane QLD ALP 1.6% - Trevor Evans MP defeated

Deakin VIC ALP 1.8% - Michael Sukkar MP defeated

Dickson QLD ALP 1.9% - Peter Dutton MP defeated

Robertson NSW ALP 2.3% - Lucy Wicks MP defeated

Leichhardt QLD ALP 2.3% - Warren Entsch MP defeated

Flinders VIC ALP 2.4% - Zoe McKenzie new Liberal candidate defeated

Pearce WA ALP 2.8% - Linda Aitken new Liberal candidate defeated

Higgins VIC ALP 2.8% - Katie Allen MP defeated

Longman QLD ALP 3.2% - Terry Young MP defeated

Reid NSW ALP 3.3% - Fiona Martin MP defeated

Casey VIC ALP 3.4% - Aaron Violi new Liberal candidate defeated

Braddon TAS ALP 3.4% - Gavin Pearce MP defeated

Swan WA ALP 4.7% - Steve Irons MP defeated

Bass TAS ALP 6.1% - Bridget Archer MP defeated

Chisholm VIC ALP 6.3% - Gladys Lui MP defeated

Boothby SA ALP 6.6% - Nicole Flint MP defeated

Looking at the first three Newspoll & Roy Morgan voter intention polls of 2022

So what would the results of the first three voter intention surveys conducted by Newspoll and Roy Morgan Research look like on the ground, in the two federal electorates of Richmond and Page in the Northern Rivers region and, in the neighbouring electorates of Cowper, New England and Lyne?

Would seats change hands at the 2022 federal general election?

Morgan Poll 4-16 January 2022

Nationally a 7.5% swing to Labor

Antony Green's Federal Election Calculator 2022

Outcome

National Party holds Page (1.9%) Cowper (4.4%) Lyne (7.7% ) and New England (10.1%).

Labor Party holds Richmond (11.6%)

Newspoll 25-28 January 2022

Nationally a 7.5% swing to Labor

Anthony Green's Federal Election Calculator 2022

Outcome

National Party holds Page (1.9%) Cowper (4.4%) Lyne (7.7% ) and New England (10.1%).

Labor Party holds Richmond (11.6%)

Newspoll 9-12 February 2022

Nationally swing of 6.5% to Labor

Anthony Green's Federal Election Calculator 2022

Australian Labor Party wins federal government, however the Member for Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison retains his seat (12.5%).

Outcome

National Party holds Page (2.9%) Cowper (5.4%) Lyne (8.7% ) and New England (11.1%).

Labor Party holds Richmond (10.6%)

* 

Back To The Future? Newspoll voting intention survey 6-12 February 2022, published 13 February

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll

The graph displayed above contains the results of 37 Newspoll surveys published between 4 February 2018 and 13 February 2022.

Two days after Scott Morrison became Australia's 30th prime minister the Newspoll survey of 26 September 2018 showed the 'two party preferred' vote stood at Labor 56 (unchanged) to Coalition 44 (-5).

 

The day before the 18 May 2019 federal general election Newspoll showed the 'two party preferred' vote stood at Labor 51.5 to Coalition 48.5. The Coalition went on to win the 2019 election 77 seats to 68 seats, with a 9 seat majority in the House of Representatives - since reduced to an 8 seat majority.

Six times between 10 November 2019 and 6 June 2021 the 'two party preferred' vote stood at 50-50.

On 13 February 2022 - just 66 days out from the last possible date for the constitutionally required federal general election - Newspoll showed the 'two party preferred' vote stood at Labor 55 to Coalition 45.

 

The Australian, Newspoll published on 13 February 2022 revealed:

FIRST PREFERENCE VOTE:

Coalition 34% (unchanged)

Labor 41% (unchanged)

TWO PARTY PREFERRED VOTE:

Coalition 45% (+1)

Labor 55% (-1)

The Greens 8% (-3)

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 3% (unchanged)

Others 14% (+3)

LEADER’S PERFORMANCE:

Scott Morrison

Approval 40% (+1) Disapproval 56% (-2)

Anthony Albanese

Approval 37% (-3) Disapproval 46% (+3)

BETTER PRIME MINISTER:

Scott Morrison 43% (unchanged)

Anthony Albanese 38% (-3)

Unsure 19%

Newspoll survey was conducted on Wednesday 9 February to Saturday 13 February 2022 from a sample of 1,526 respondents.

NEWSPOLL 28 August 2021: like a screw worm fly* burrowing into the side of humanity, Scott John Morrison survives and thrives

"Coalition falls as Morrison rises" reads one News Corp headline on 30 August 2021, signalling the latest Newspoll has been published.

At least one NewsCorp journalist assigns the blame for a further fall in support for the federal Liberal-Nationals Coalition to "discontent in the two lockdown states that happen to be the largest by population and electoral weight".

The poll results are reportedly the lowest federal primary vote intention for the Coalition since March 2019 and the highest for Labor since 2018, according to AAP General News Wire.

Newspoll voting intentions of 1,528 respondents polled between 25 and 28 August 2021:

PRIMARY VOTE

Coalition  36 (down 3 points)

Labor 40 (up 1 point)

Greens 10 (down 1 point)

One Nation 3 (no point change) 

Minor Parties 11 (up 3 points)

TWO PARTY PREFERRED

Coalition  46 (down 1 point)

Labor 54 (up 1 point)

SATISFACTION WITH LEADERS PERFORMANCE

Scott Morrison (Coalition) 

Approve 49 (up 2 points) Disapprove 47 (down 2 points)

Anthony Albanese (Labor)

Approve 40 (up 2 points) Disapprove 47 (up 1 point)

 PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Scott Morrison (Coalition) 

Preferred 50 (up 1 point)

Anthony Albanese (Labor)

Preferred 34 (down 2 points)

NOTE:

* The  Screw worm fly lays its eggs in the flesh of living humans and animals and its maggots grow to maturity feeding on this flesh.

MJR Hall, Natural History Museum, London