Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Monday 29 April 2019

Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and Newspoll results tighten


Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and the losing streak is not yet over for the Morrison Government.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

Which means the losing streak has now stretched to just under 34 months.

53rd Newpoll results – published 29 April 2019:

Primary Vote – Labor 37 percent (down 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 38 per cent (down 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 4 per cent (unchanged).

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 51 per cent (down 1 point) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 49 per cent (up 1 point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -1 point (down 1 point) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -12 points (up 2 points).

If a federal election had been held on 29 April 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a majority 77 seats (down 5 seats since 16 April poll ) to the Coalition's 68 seats (up 5 seats since 16 April poll) in the House of Representatives.

According to Antony Green's
 Swing Calculator the 27-28 April 2019 Newspoll results will see the Nationals retain the Page and Cowper electorates and Labor retain the Richmond electorate.
In other words the status quo is predicted to remain for another three years – the Nationals having held Page since 2013 and Cowper since 2001. Labor has held Richmond since 2004.

Tuesday 16 April 2019

No matter how had they dance and prance Scott Morrison & Co just can't turn Newspoll around


Only 32 days out from the 2019 federal election and the losing streak is not yet over for the Morrison Government.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

Which means the losing streak has now stretched to a little over 33 months.

52nd Newpoll results – published 15 April 2019:

Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (up 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 39 per cent (up 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 4 per cent (down 2 points).

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 52 per cent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 48 per cent (up 1 point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison 1 point (down 1 point) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -14 points (unchanged).

If a federal election had been held on14 April 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a majority 82 seats (unchanged since 7 April poll ) to the Coalition's 63 seats (unchanged since 7 April poll) in the House of Representatives.

According to Antony Green's Swing Calculator the 11-14 April 2019 Newspoll results will see Labor gain the Page electorate and retain the Richmond electorate, with Cowper electorate being retained by the Nationals.

Monday 8 April 2019

51st losing Newspoll in a row for Australian Liberal-Nationals Coalition Government


The losing streak is not yet over for the Morrison Government.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

Which means the losing streak has now stretched to 33 months.

51st Newpoll results – 7 April 2019:

Primary Vote – Labor 37 percent (down 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 38 per cent (up 2 points), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 6 per cent (down 1 point).

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 52 per cent (down 1 point) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 47 per cent (up 1 point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison 2 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -14 points.

If a federal election had been held on 7 April 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a majority 82 seats (down 2 seats since March poll) to the Coalition's 63 seats (up 4 seats since March poll) in the House of Representatives.


In Page the current odds are Labor $1.64 Coalition $2.05 Greens $31.00, in Richmond Labor $1.05 Coalition $7.50 Greens $31.00, and in Cowper Independent $1.72 Coalition $1.93 Labor $21.00 Greens $51.00.


UPDATE

According to Antony Green’s Swing Calculator Newspoll results for 4-7 April 2019 mean that the electorates of Page and Richmond will both have Labor MPs while Cowper will have a Nationals MP after the May federal election.

The IPSOS poll of 3-5 April 2019 produces the same results.

Monday 11 March 2019

State of Play 11 March 2019: as both Australian federal election and New South Wales state election grow near



A Newspoll survey of 1,610 Australian voted was conducted between Thursday 7 March and Sunday 10 March 2019.

The Federal Liberal-Nationals Coalition Government suffered its 50th consecutive loss on a Two-Party Preferred (TPP) basis since June 2016 in this latest Newspoll.

50th Newpoll results:

Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals 36 per cent (down 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent, One Nation 7 per cent.

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 53 per cent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 46 per cent (down 1point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -2 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -15 points.

If a federal election had been held on 10 March 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016 then Labor would have won government with a majority 86 seats (up 2 seats since February poll) to the Coalition's 59 seats (down 4 seats since February poll) in the House of Representatives.

On the basis of these predictions voting in the NSW North Coast electorate of Page held by Nationals MP Kevin Hogan may go down to the wire.

Even the sports betting is favouring Labor over the Coalition.

Meanwhile in New South Wales just 12 days out from a the March 2019 state election and  The Guardian is reporting that that:

A new poll indicates Labor leads the coalition 51% to 49% on a two-party preferred basis with Daley ahead of Berejiklian as preferred premier.

The UComms/ReachTel poll, published in the Sun-Herald, also shows the Coalition’s primary vote has dropped to 28.7% while Labor’s remains steady at 34.1%.

While a YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph shows the NSW Nationals are on the cusp of losing Barwon and Lismore and are also facing battles in the National­ seats of Upper Hunter, Tweed, Murray and Coffs Harbour, and Liberal-held Coogee, East Hills, Penrith and Goulburn.

It is being said that the loss of six of those ten seats would result in a post-election Berejiklian Government being a minority government. The last minority NSW government was voted in from 1991-1995. It was a Coalition Government supported by Independents,

Monday 25 February 2019

Happy 49th to our local member, Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan


Happy 49th Newspoll, Kevin John Hogan

That's forty-nine published Newspoll surveys in a row in which the Coaltion has failed to pull ahead of Labor on a Two-Party Preferred (TPP) basis.

The last time the federal government - of which you have been a member since September 2013 under prime ministers Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison - has been ahead of Labor was on 27 June 2016.

That lasted a full thirty-five five days because by 30 August the gloss had worn off that July federal election win and you could only reach TPP 50 points in the August 2016 Newspoll.

In late September of that year the Coalition lost even that small comfort as Labor began to out poll the Turnbull Government and then the Morrison Government.

If you are wondering why this is happening the answer is easy to find. Turn a few pages of Hansard.

Every government backbencher, yourself included, votes on the floor of Parliament not in the interests of their electorate or that of the nation but in support of the hard-right ideology which dominates the Coalition Cabinet to the exclusion of even basic commonsense.

You have nobody to blame but yourselves.

So enjoy your 49th Kevin because your 50th is likely to be close on its heels.

*Image from Greeting Card Universe

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Newspoll survey of 1,582 respondents on 21-24 February 2019 was released on Monday 25 February:

Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals 37 per cent (unchanged), The Greens 9 per cent, One Nation 5 per cent.

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 53 per cent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 47 per cent (unchanged)


Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -6 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -18 points.

If a federal election had been held on 24 February 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016 then Labor would have won government with a majority 82 seats to the Coalition's 63 seats in the House of Representatives.

Monday 18 February 2019

Guess that big empty bus and other faux election campaign antics weren’t as effective as Scott Morrison had hoped



Channel 9 News, 16 February 2019:

The Morrison Government is losing support in Queensland in the latest spell of bad news for the Prime Minister.

The latest YouGov Galaxy poll shows that the Prime Minister has lost crucial support in the Sunshine State, often seen as a key election battleground….

The slump comes despite Mr Morrison visiting farmers devastated by the recent floods, promising to rebuild the cattle industry…..

There are only four more sitting days remain until the budget is handed down, and just seven more until the most likely date when the election will be called.

Galaxy poll published 16 February 2019:

Queensland Primary VoteL/NP 35 (-2) to ALP 34 (unchanged)

Queensland Two-PartyPreferred (TPP)L/NP 48% (-2) to ALP 52% (+2)

Tuesday 12 February 2019

What the Australian Parliament might look like after May 2019


The second Newspoll survey of the year polling 1,567 voters was conducted from 7 February to 10 February 2019.

The results were:

Primary vote – Labor 39 per cent (up 1 point) to Coalition 37 per cent (unchanged).

Two-party preferred vote – Labor 53 (unchanged) to Coalition 47 per cent (unchanged).

The two-party preferred result represents a 31 month long losing streak for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition to date.

If a federal election had been held on 10 February 2019 the swing to Labor would have been 2.5 percent.

This would have given Labor 82 seats in the House of Representatives to the Coalition’s 63 seats (Liberal 38, LNP 16, Nationals 9).

Based on these percentages then at the May 2019 federal election Labor MP for Ballina Justine Elliot will comfortably retain the seat she has held since 2004, Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan will likely lose the seat he has held since September 2013, it is uncertain if the Cowper electorate will vote in a Nationals candidate, Nationals MPs David Gillespie and Barnaby Joyce will probably retain their seats which both have held since 2013.

These percentages would also see the current Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, Minister for Health Greg Hunt, Minister for Human Services Alan Tudge and Minister for Agriculture and Water Resources David Littleproud probably retaining their seats but as members of the Opposition benches. With Attorney-General Christian Porter fighting to keep his seat on those same benches and Minister for Home Affairs Peter Dutton losing the seat of Dickson which he has held since 2001.

It would seem that most destructive and disruptive Liberal MP for Warringah Tony Abbott is also likely to retain his seat.

The overall makeup of the House of Representatives will possibly look like this:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll



Tuesday 29 January 2019

First Newspoll of 2019 doesn't end Morrison Government's losing streak


SBS News, 29 January 2018:

The coalition's primary vote has risen in the first Newspoll of 2019, but Labor remains in front.

Support for Scott Morrison's government increased by two points, according the poll published by The Australian on Monday night.

The Newspoll shows Labor ahead in the two-party preferred vote 53-47.

The poll was conducted between January 24-27 and based on a survey of 1634 voters across Australia.



Graphics on Twitter, 29 January 2019
Scott Morrison remains preferred prime minister at 43 to Shorten’s 36 per cent in this latest Newspoll.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

That represents a 30 month long losing streak for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition to date.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll


While the Coalition's easy dominance of the Newspoll Primary Vote had ended within five months of the last federal election and disappeared completely by 26 August 2018.

Saturday 12 January 2019

Tweets of the Week



Friday 7 December 2018

Scanlon Foundation Survey finds that in contemporary Australia racist values are held by a small minority



The Guardian, 4 December 2018:

Australia has not lost faith in immigration. The political narrative has darkened but not the fundamental view of ourselves as an immigrant nation. Most of us remain convinced that we are in so many ways better off for newcomers of all races and creeds who have come in large numbers to our shores.

That is the verdict of the Scanlon Foundation’s 2018 Mapping Social Cohesion Report published on Tuesday. The mission of the foundation is to measure how this migrant nation hangs together. Over the last decade 48,000 of us have been polled to fathom the panics that sweep this country and the steady underlying views Australians have of immigration.

“Immigration is a growing concern,” says the author of the report Professor Andrew Markus of Monash University. “But for media commentators and some politicians it has become an obsession. They are in the business of creating heightened concern, of crisis. But what the survey shows is rather a picture of stability.”

Markus is one of Australia’s leading authorities on the politics of race. This is the 11th report he has written for the Scanlon Foundation. Year in year out his reports show about 80% of us believe immigrants are “generally good” for Australia’s economy and that ours is a better society for the “new ideas and cultures” that immigrants bring to this country. Support for multiculturalism in 2018 stands almost as high as ever at 85%.
 “A number of international surveys that look at Australia, America, Canada, a range of European countries from eastern Europe to western Europe, and also countries in other parts of the world, have a consistent finding that on attitudes to immigration and cultural diversity, Australia is within the top 10% of countries which are open to and welcoming of immigration,” says Markus…..

BACKGROUND


Each Mapping Social Cohesion national survey builds on the previous year and informs the Scanlon-Monash Index (SMI) of Social Cohesion. The surveys have been undertaken since 2007 where the original survey provided the benchmark against which the SMI is then measured.

These surveys provide, for the first time in Australian social research, a series of detailed surveys on social cohesion, immigration and population issues. A prime objective of the surveys is to further understanding of the social impact of Australia’s increasingly diverse immigration program.


While there are significant differences by mode of surveying in the level of strong positive response, as indicated by Figure 35, the balance of opinion remains in large measure consistent. Thus with strong positive and positive responses combined, agreement that multiculturalism has been good for Australia is at 85% RDD, 77% LinA. Agreement with discrimination based on race or ethnicity in immigration selection is at 15% RDD, 22% LinA. Larger variation by survey mode is obtained with reference to some questions on religion: negative attitude (strong negative and negative combined) to those of the Muslim faith is at 23% RDD, 39% LinA, agreement with discrimination in immigration selection on the basis of religion is at 18% RDD, 29% LinA…….

The Scanlon Foundation surveys are of relevance to a fourth dimension, attitudes within the community. All populations comprise people with diverse personalities and views ranging, for example, from the tolerant to the intolerant – from those who celebrate cultural diversity to those who are comfortable only with what they perceive to be Australian culture.

As discussed in this report, the Scanlon Foundation survey findings establish that in contemporary Australia racist values are held by a small minority – arguably most clearly indicated by ‘strong agreement’ with discrimination in immigrant selection policy based on race, ethnicity or religion. Across the two survey modes, ‘strong agreement’ with such discrimination is indicated by 7%-11% of the population. [my yellow highlighting]


Tuesday 13 November 2018

Like Turnbull before him, Scott Morrison fails to connect with voters




In its national opinion poll released on 11 November 2018 Federal Primary Votes came in at:

Liberal-National Party 35 (-1)
Australian Labor Party 40 (+1)
Australian Greens 9 (0)
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 6 (0)

These results gave this Two-Party Preferred Voting breakdown (based on 2016 federal election preference flows):

The Australian, Twitter, 11 November 2018


AAP General Newswire, 11 November 2018:

Bill Shorten has narrowed the gap to Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister as Labor extends its lead over the coalition in the latest Newspoll.

The coalition government has slipped further behind Labor in the latest Newspoll as Bill Shorten narrowed the gap to Scott Morrison as the nation's preferred leader.

The Liberal-National coalition now trail Labor by 10 points after slipping to 45-55 on a two-party preferred basis, according to the Newspoll published in The Australian on Sunday night.

The coalition’s primary vote fell by a point to 35 per cent - two points higher than the record low of 33 per cent.

Labor's primary vote, according to the national poll of 1802 voters, sits at 40 per cent - only the third time it has hit such a mark in almost four years.

The coalition has been behind on the primary vote since the leadership change in August.

Mr Morrison's latest effort to win back votes - his bus and plane tour of Queensland - appeared to not work with voters with his net approval rating sinking another five points to minus eight.....

Monday 15 October 2018

So who do you trust in the Australian media landscape in 2018?


On 9 October 2018 Essential Research released the results of survey questions concerning trust in the media.

Once again public broadcasters, ABC and SBS, were the clear winners across all categories in which they were listed.

Q. How much trust do you have in what you read or hear in the following media?

Total a lot /some
trust

A lot of trust
Some trust
Not much trust
No trust at all
Don’t know
Don’t use
% change

Total a lot /some
Oct 17
ABC TV news and current affairs
62%

19%
43%
14%
9%
5%
10%
-1

63%
SBS TV news and current affairs
61%

18%
43%
14%
6%
5%
15%

61%
ABC radio news and current affairs
57%

17%
40%
17%
8%
4%
14%
-1

58%
Commercial TV news and current affairs
48%

8%
40%
29%
12%
5%
7%
+3

45%
News and opinion in local newspapers
47%

6%
41%
27%
9%
4%
13%
+3

44%
ABC radio talkback programs
44%

8%
36%
22%
10%
5%
20%

44%
News and opinion in daily newspapers
44%

6%
38%
28%
10%
5%
12%
+2

42%
Commercial radio news and current affairs
44%

5%
39%
28%
11%
5%
13%
+3

41%
News and opinion websites
39%

4%
35%
32%
11%
5%
13%
-1

40%
Commercial radio talkback programs
35%

4%
31%
29%
14%
5%
18%

35%
Internet blogs
17%

2%
15%
34%
22%
6%
20%
-3

20%

Overall, there has been little change in trust in media since this question was asked 12 months ago.

The most trusted media were ABC TV news and current affairs (62% a lot/some trust), SBS TV news and current affairs (61%) and ABC radio news and current affairs (57%).

The least trusted were internet blogs (17%) and commercial radio talkback programs (35%).

Q. How much trust do you have in what you read in the following newspapers and news websites?

Total a lot /some
trust

A lot of trust
Some trust
Not much trust
No trust at all
Don’t know
ABC news websites
69%

21%
48%
16%
9%
6%
The Australian
59%

12%
47%
22%
11%
9%
The Guardian Australia website
55%

10%
45%
23%
11%
12%
News.com.au
55%

10%
45%
27%
12%
7%
Sydney Morning Herald
54%

13%
41%
25%
11%
10%
The Age
53%

9%
44%
24%
13%
11%
Nine.com.au
53%

8%
45%
27%
13%
6%
The Telegraph
49%

10%
39%
26%
14%
11%
Herald Sun
46%

8%
38%
27%
15%
11%
Yahoo 7 News website
45%

6%
39%
29%
16%
9%
Courier Mail
44%

6%
38%
30%
15%
13%
Daily Mail website
39%

6%
33%
31%
21%
10%

* Note : Percentages based only on respondents who had read/used each newspaper/website

Overall, among those who have read or used them, the most trusted news sources were the ABC news websites (69%), The Australian (59%), The Guardian Australia (55%) and news.com.au (55%).

The least trusted were The Daily Mail (39%) and The Courier Mail (44%).

Q. Overall, do you think the news reporting and comment on the ABC is independent and unbiased?


Total

Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
Yes
40%

50%
40%
52%
28%
No
34%

24%
43%
23%
50%
Don’t know
26%

25%
17%
25%
22%

40% think that the news reporting and comment on the ABC is independent and unbiased and 34% think it isn’t.

Those most likely to think the ABC is not independent and unbiased were LNP voters (43%), other party voters (50%) and aged 55+ (40%).

As for the general public's attitude to the recent attacks on ABC independence - 36% of survey respondents thought that the Government has too much influence over the ABC, 16% think they have not enough influence, 17% think they have about the right level of influence and 31& did not know.