According to Antony Green's Swing Calculator the 27-28 April 2019 Newspoll results will see the Nationals retain the Page and Cowper electorates and Labor retain the Richmond electorate.
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Monday 29 April 2019
Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and Newspoll results tighten
Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and the losing streak is
not yet over for the Morrison Government.
The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two
Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull
Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.
Which means the losing streak has now stretched to just under 34 months.
53rd Newpoll results – published 29 April 2019:
Primary Vote – Labor 37 percent (down 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 38 per
cent (down 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 4 per cent
(unchanged).
Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 51 per cent (down 1 point) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition
49 per cent (up 1 point).
Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison
-1 point (down 1 point) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -12 points (up 2
points).
If a federal election had been held on 29 April 2019 based of the
preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a
majority 77 seats (down 5 seats since 16 April poll ) to the Coalition's 68 seats
(up 5 seats since 16 April poll) in the House of Representatives.
According to Antony Green's Swing Calculator the 27-28 April 2019 Newspoll results will see the Nationals retain the Page and Cowper electorates and Labor retain the Richmond electorate.
In other words the
status quo is predicted to remain for another three years – the Nationals
having held Page since 2013 and Cowper since 2001. Labor has held Richmond since
2004.
Tuesday 16 April 2019
No matter how had they dance and prance Scott Morrison & Co just can't turn Newspoll around
Only 32 days out from the 2019 federal election and the losing streak is not yet over for the Morrison Government.
The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party
Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government
stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.
Which means the losing streak has now stretched to a little over 33
months.
52nd Newpoll results – published 15 April 2019:
Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (up 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 39 per cent
(up 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 4 per cent (down 2
points).
Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 52 per cent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 48
per cent (up 1 point).
Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison
1 point (down 1 point) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -14 points
(unchanged).
If a federal election had been held on14 April 2019 based of the
preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a
majority 82 seats (unchanged since 7 April poll ) to the Coalition's 63 seats
(unchanged since 7 April poll) in the House of Representatives.
According to Antony Green's Swing Calculator the 11-14 April 2019 Newspoll results will see Labor gain the Page electorate and retain the Richmond electorate, with Cowper electorate being retained by the Nationals.
Labels:
#MorrisonGovernmentFAIL,
elections 2019,
poll,
statistics
Monday 8 April 2019
51st losing Newspoll in a row for Australian Liberal-Nationals Coalition Government
The losing
streak is not yet over for the Morrison
Government.
The last time
the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis
was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the
day of the 2016 federal election.
Which means the
losing streak has now stretched to 33 months.
51st Newpoll results
– 7 April 2019:
Primary Vote – Labor 37 percent (down 2
points) to Liberal-Nationals 38 per cent (up 2 points), The Greens 9 per cent
(unchanged), One Nation 6 per cent (down 1 point).
Two Party Preferred
(TPP) - Labor 52
per cent (down 1 point) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 47 per cent (up 1 point).
Voter Net Satisfaction
With Leaders’ Performance –
Prime Minister Scott Morrison 2 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -14
points.
If
a federal election had been held on 7 April 2019 based of the preference flow
in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a majority 82 seats
(down 2 seats since March poll) to the Coalition's 63 seats (up 4 seats since
March poll) in the House of Representatives.
In Page the current odds are Labor $1.64
Coalition $2.05 Greens $31.00, in Richmond
Labor $1.05 Coalition $7.50 Greens $31.00, and in Cowper Independent $1.72 Coalition $1.93 Labor $21.00 Greens $51.00.
UPDATE
According to
Antony Green’s Swing
Calculator Newspoll
results for 4-7 April 2019 mean that the electorates of Page and Richmond will
both have Labor MPs while Cowper will have a Nationals MP after the May federal
election.
The IPSOS
poll of 3-5 April 2019 produces the same results.
Labels:
Australia,
elections 2019,
poll,
statistics
Monday 11 March 2019
State of Play 11 March 2019: as both Australian federal election and New South Wales state election grow near
A Newspoll
survey of 1,610 Australian voted was conducted between Thursday 7 March and
Sunday 10 March 2019.
The Federal Liberal-Nationals
Coalition Government suffered its 50th consecutive loss on a Two-Party
Preferred (TPP) basis since June 2016 in this latest Newspoll.
50th Newpoll results:
Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (unchanged)
to Liberal-Nationals 36 per cent (down 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent, One
Nation 7 per cent.
Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 53 per cent (unchanged)
to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 46 per cent (down 1point).
Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’
Performance –
Prime Minister Scott Morrison -2 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -15
points.
If a federal
election had been held on 10 March 2019 based of the preference flow in July
2016 then Labor would have won government with a majority 86 seats (up 2 seats
since February poll) to the Coalition's 59 seats (down 4 seats since February
poll) in the House of Representatives.
On the basis
of these predictions voting in the NSW
North Coast electorate of Page held by Nationals MP Kevin Hogan may go down
to the wire.
Even the
sports betting is favouring Labor over the Coalition.
Meanwhile in
New South Wales just 12 days out from a the March 2019 state election and The
Guardian is reporting that that:
A new poll indicates
Labor leads the coalition 51% to 49% on a two-party preferred basis with Daley
ahead of Berejiklian as preferred premier.
The UComms/ReachTel
poll, published in the Sun-Herald, also shows the Coalition’s primary vote has
dropped to 28.7% while Labor’s remains steady at 34.1%.
While a YouGov
Galaxy poll conducted for The
Daily Telegraph shows the NSW Nationals are on the cusp of losing
Barwon and Lismore and are also facing battles in the National seats of Upper
Hunter, Tweed, Murray and Coffs Harbour, and Liberal-held Coogee, East Hills,
Penrith and Goulburn.
It is being said that the loss of six
of those ten seats would result in a post-election Berejiklian Government being
a minority government. The last minority NSW government was voted in from 1991-1995. It was a Coalition Government supported by Independents,
Labels:
Australia,
elections 2019,
NSW,
poll,
statistics
Monday 25 February 2019
Happy 49th to our local member, Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan
Happy 49th Newspoll, Kevin John Hogan.
That's forty-nine published Newspoll surveys in a row in which the Coaltion has failed to pull ahead of Labor on a Two-Party Preferred (TPP) basis.
The last time the federal government - of which you have been a member since September 2013 under prime ministers Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison - has been ahead of Labor was on 27 June 2016.
That lasted a full thirty-five five days because by 30 August the gloss had worn off that July federal election win and you could only reach TPP 50 points in the August 2016 Newspoll.
In late September of that year the Coalition lost even that small comfort as Labor began to out poll the Turnbull Government and then the Morrison Government.
If you are wondering why this is happening the answer is easy to find. Turn a few pages of Hansard.
Every government backbencher, yourself included, votes on the floor of Parliament not in the interests of their electorate or that of the nation but in support of the hard-right ideology which dominates the Coalition Cabinet to the exclusion of even basic commonsense.
You have nobody to blame but yourselves.
So enjoy your 49th Kevin because your 50th is likely to be close on its heels.
*Image from Greeting Card Universe
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Newspoll survey of 1,582 respondents on
21-24 February 2019 was released on Monday 25 February:
Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals
37 per cent (unchanged), The Greens 9 per cent, One Nation 5 per cent.
Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 53 per cent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals
Coalition 47 per cent (unchanged)
Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’
Performance – Prime Minister
Scott Morrison -6 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -18 points.
If a federal election had been held on 24 February 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016 then Labor would have won government with a majority 82 seats to the Coalition's 63 seats in the House of Representatives.
Monday 18 February 2019
Guess that big empty bus and other faux election campaign antics weren’t as effective as Scott Morrison had hoped
Channel
9 News, 16
February 2019:
The Morrison Government
is losing support in Queensland in the latest spell of bad news for the Prime
Minister.
The latest YouGov Galaxy
poll shows that the Prime Minister has lost crucial support in the Sunshine
State, often seen as a key election battleground….
The slump comes despite
Mr Morrison visiting farmers devastated by the recent floods, promising to
rebuild the cattle industry…..
There are only four more
sitting days remain until the budget is handed down, and just seven more until
the most likely date when the election will be called.
Galaxy poll
published 16 February 2019:
Queensland Primary
Vote – L/NP 35 (-2) to ALP 34 (unchanged)
Queensland Two-PartyPreferred (TPP) –
L/NP 48% (-2) to ALP 52% (+2)
Tuesday 12 February 2019
What the Australian Parliament might look like after May 2019
The second Newspoll survey of the year polling 1,567
voters was conducted from 7 February to 10 February 2019.
The results
were:
Primary vote – Labor 39 per cent (up 1
point) to Coalition 37 per cent (unchanged).
Two-party preferred vote – Labor 53 (unchanged)
to Coalition 47 per cent (unchanged).
The two-party preferred result represents
a 31 month long losing streak for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition to date.
If a federal election had been held on
10 February 2019 the swing to Labor would have been 2.5 percent.
This would have given Labor 82 seats
in the House of Representatives to the Coalition’s 63 seats (Liberal 38, LNP
16, Nationals 9).
Based on
these percentages then at the May 2019 federal election Labor MP for Ballina Justine Elliot will comfortably retain the seat she has held since
2004, Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan
will likely lose the seat he has held since September 2013, it is uncertain if
the Cowper electorate will vote in a
Nationals candidate, Nationals MPs David
Gillespie and Barnaby Joyce will
probably retain their seats which both have held since 2013.
These
percentages would also see the current Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Treasurer Josh
Frydenberg, Minister for Health Greg
Hunt, Minister for Human Services Alan
Tudge and Minister for Agriculture and Water Resources David Littleproud probably retaining their seats but as members of
the Opposition benches. With Attorney-General Christian Porter fighting to keep his seat on those same benches
and Minister for Home Affairs Peter
Dutton losing the seat of Dickson which he has held since 2001.
It would seem that most destructive and disruptive Liberal MP for Warringah Tony Abbott is also likely to retain his seat.
It would seem that most destructive and disruptive Liberal MP for Warringah Tony Abbott is also likely to retain his seat.
The overall makeup of the House of Representatives will possibly look like this:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll |
Labels:
elections 2019,
poll,
statistics
Tuesday 29 January 2019
First Newspoll of 2019 doesn't end Morrison Government's losing streak
SBS News, 29 January 2018:
The coalition's primary
vote has risen in the first Newspoll of 2019, but Labor remains in front.
Support for Scott
Morrison's government increased by two points, according the poll published by
The Australian on Monday night.
The Newspoll shows Labor
ahead in the two-party preferred vote 53-47.
The poll was conducted
between January 24-27 and based on a survey of 1634 voters across Australia.
Graphics on Twitter, 29 January 2019 |
Scott Morrison
remains preferred prime minister at 43 to Shorten’s 36 per cent in this latest
Newspoll.
The last time
the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two
Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government
stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.
That
represents a 30 month long losing streak for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition to date.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll
While the Coalition's easy dominance of the Newspoll Primary Vote had ended within five months of the last federal election and disappeared completely by 26 August 2018.
|
Labels:
Australian politics,
elections 2019,
poll,
statistics
Saturday 12 January 2019
Tweets of the Week
Michael Murray, general manager of Cotton Australia— Des Devlin (@desdevlin38) January 10, 2019
Mr Murray said the decision 18 months ago to drain 2,000 gigalitres of water from the Menindee Lakes was in hindsight “probably a poor decision”.
You fucking think so? #auspol
Labels:
statistics,
unemployment
Friday 7 December 2018
Scanlon Foundation Survey finds that in contemporary Australia racist values are held by a small minority
The
Guardian, 4 December 2018:
Australia has not lost
faith in immigration. The political narrative has darkened but not the
fundamental view of ourselves as an immigrant nation. Most of us remain
convinced that we are in so many ways better off for newcomers of all races and
creeds who have come in large numbers to our shores.
That is the verdict of
the Scanlon Foundation’s 2018 Mapping Social Cohesion Report published on
Tuesday. The mission of the foundation is to measure how this migrant nation
hangs together. Over the last decade 48,000 of us have been polled to fathom
the panics that sweep this country and the steady underlying views Australians
have of immigration.
“Immigration is a
growing concern,” says the author of the report Professor Andrew Markus of
Monash University. “But for media commentators and some politicians it has
become an obsession. They are in the business of creating heightened concern,
of crisis. But what the survey shows is rather a picture of stability.”
Markus is one of
Australia’s leading authorities on the politics of race. This is the 11th
report he has written for the Scanlon Foundation. Year in year out his reports
show about 80% of us believe immigrants are “generally good” for Australia’s
economy and that ours is a better society for the “new ideas and cultures” that
immigrants bring to this country. Support for multiculturalism in 2018 stands
almost as high as ever at 85%.
“A number of international surveys that look
at Australia, America, Canada, a range of European countries from eastern
Europe to western Europe, and also countries in other parts of the world, have
a consistent finding that on attitudes to immigration and cultural diversity,
Australia is within the top 10% of countries which are open to and welcoming of
immigration,” says Markus…..
BACKGROUND
Each Mapping Social
Cohesion national survey builds on the previous year and informs the
Scanlon-Monash Index (SMI) of Social Cohesion. The surveys have been undertaken
since 2007 where the original survey provided the benchmark against which the
SMI is then measured.
These surveys provide,
for the first time in Australian social research, a series of detailed surveys
on social cohesion, immigration and population issues. A prime objective of the
surveys is to further understanding of the social impact of Australia’s
increasingly diverse immigration program.
Mapping
Social Cohesion The Scanlon Foundation Surveys 2018 [PDF 86 pages], excerpts:
While there are
significant differences by mode of surveying in the level of strong positive
response, as indicated by Figure 35, the balance of opinion remains in large
measure consistent. Thus
with strong positive and positive responses combined, agreement that
multiculturalism has been good for Australia is at 85% RDD, 77% LinA.
Agreement with discrimination based on race or ethnicity in immigration
selection is at 15% RDD, 22% LinA. Larger variation by survey mode is obtained
with reference to some questions on religion: negative attitude (strong negative
and negative combined) to those of the Muslim faith is at 23% RDD, 39% LinA,
agreement with discrimination in immigration selection on the basis of religion
is at 18% RDD, 29% LinA…….
The Scanlon Foundation
surveys are of relevance to a fourth dimension, attitudes within the community.
All populations comprise people with diverse personalities and views ranging,
for example, from the tolerant to the intolerant – from those who celebrate
cultural diversity to those who are comfortable only with what they perceive to
be Australian culture.
As discussed in this
report, the Scanlon Foundation survey findings establish that in contemporary
Australia racist values
are held by a small minority – arguably most clearly indicated by
‘strong agreement’ with discrimination in immigrant selection policy based on
race, ethnicity or religion. Across
the two survey modes, ‘strong agreement’ with such discrimination is indicated
by 7%-11% of the population. [my yellow highlighting]
Labels:
Australian society,
discrimination,
immigration,
racism,
statistics
Tuesday 13 November 2018
Like Turnbull before him, Scott Morrison fails to connect with voters
According to Newspoll
it is Australia’s
leading public opinion polling company . Established in 1985, we have
Australia’s best track record having estimated the outcomes of every state and
federal election since our company was founded.
In its national
opinion poll released on 11 November 2018 Federal Primary Votes came in at:
Liberal-National Party 35 (-1)
Australian Labor Party 40 (+1)
Australian Greens 9 (0)
Pauline
Hanson’s One Nation 6 (0)
These results
gave this Two-Party Preferred Voting breakdown (based on 2016 federal election
preference flows):
The Australian, Twitter, 11 November 2018 |
AAP General Newswire, 11 November 2018:
Bill Shorten has
narrowed the gap to Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister as Labor extends
its lead over the coalition in the latest Newspoll.
The coalition government
has slipped further behind Labor in the latest Newspoll as Bill
Shorten narrowed the gap to Scott Morrison as the nation's preferred leader.
The Liberal-National
coalition now trail Labor by 10 points after slipping to 45-55 on a two-party
preferred basis, according to the Newspoll published in The
Australian on Sunday night.
The coalition’s primary
vote fell by a point to 35 per cent - two points higher than the record low of
33 per cent.
Labor's primary vote,
according to the national poll of 1802 voters, sits at 40 per cent - only the
third time it has hit such a mark in almost four years.
The coalition has been
behind on the primary vote since the leadership change in August.
Mr Morrison's latest
effort to win back votes - his bus and plane tour of Queensland - appeared to
not work with voters with his net approval rating sinking another five points
to minus eight.....
Labels:
elections,
poll,
statistics
Monday 15 October 2018
So who do you trust in the Australian media landscape in 2018?
On 9 October 2018 Essential Research released the results of survey questions concerning trust in the media.
Once again public broadcasters, ABC and SBS, were the clear winners across all categories in which they were listed.
Q. How much trust do you have in
what you read or hear in the following media?
Total
a lot /some
trust
|
A
lot of trust
|
Some
trust
|
Not
much trust
|
No
trust at all
|
Don’t
know
|
Don’t
use
|
%
change
|
Total
a lot /some
Oct
17
|
|||
ABC TV news and current affairs
|
62%
|
19%
|
43%
|
14%
|
9%
|
5%
|
10%
|
-1
|
63%
|
||
SBS TV news and current affairs
|
61%
|
18%
|
43%
|
14%
|
6%
|
5%
|
15%
|
–
|
61%
|
||
ABC radio news and current affairs
|
57%
|
17%
|
40%
|
17%
|
8%
|
4%
|
14%
|
-1
|
58%
|
||
Commercial TV news and current affairs
|
48%
|
8%
|
40%
|
29%
|
12%
|
5%
|
7%
|
+3
|
45%
|
||
News and opinion in local newspapers
|
47%
|
6%
|
41%
|
27%
|
9%
|
4%
|
13%
|
+3
|
44%
|
||
ABC radio talkback programs
|
44%
|
8%
|
36%
|
22%
|
10%
|
5%
|
20%
|
–
|
44%
|
||
News and opinion in daily newspapers
|
44%
|
6%
|
38%
|
28%
|
10%
|
5%
|
12%
|
+2
|
42%
|
||
Commercial radio news and current affairs
|
44%
|
5%
|
39%
|
28%
|
11%
|
5%
|
13%
|
+3
|
41%
|
||
News and opinion websites
|
39%
|
4%
|
35%
|
32%
|
11%
|
5%
|
13%
|
-1
|
40%
|
||
Commercial radio talkback programs
|
35%
|
4%
|
31%
|
29%
|
14%
|
5%
|
18%
|
–
|
35%
|
||
Internet blogs
|
17%
|
2%
|
15%
|
34%
|
22%
|
6%
|
20%
|
-3
|
20%
|
Overall, there has been little change in trust in
media since this question was asked 12 months ago.
The most trusted media were ABC TV news and current
affairs (62% a lot/some trust), SBS TV news and current affairs (61%) and ABC
radio news and current affairs (57%).
The least trusted were internet blogs (17%) and
commercial radio talkback programs (35%).
Q. How much trust do you have in what
you read in the following newspapers and news websites?
Total
a lot /some
trust
|
A
lot of trust
|
Some
trust
|
Not
much trust
|
No
trust at all
|
Don’t
know
|
||
ABC news websites
|
69%
|
21%
|
48%
|
16%
|
9%
|
6%
|
|
The Australian
|
59%
|
12%
|
47%
|
22%
|
11%
|
9%
|
|
The Guardian Australia website
|
55%
|
10%
|
45%
|
23%
|
11%
|
12%
|
|
News.com.au
|
55%
|
10%
|
45%
|
27%
|
12%
|
7%
|
|
Sydney Morning Herald
|
54%
|
13%
|
41%
|
25%
|
11%
|
10%
|
|
The Age
|
53%
|
9%
|
44%
|
24%
|
13%
|
11%
|
|
Nine.com.au
|
53%
|
8%
|
45%
|
27%
|
13%
|
6%
|
|
The Telegraph
|
49%
|
10%
|
39%
|
26%
|
14%
|
11%
|
|
Herald Sun
|
46%
|
8%
|
38%
|
27%
|
15%
|
11%
|
|
Yahoo 7 News website
|
45%
|
6%
|
39%
|
29%
|
16%
|
9%
|
|
Courier Mail
|
44%
|
6%
|
38%
|
30%
|
15%
|
13%
|
|
Daily Mail website
|
39%
|
6%
|
33%
|
31%
|
21%
|
10%
|
* Note : Percentages based only on
respondents who had read/used each newspaper/website
Overall, among those who have read or used them,
the most trusted news sources were the ABC news websites (69%), The Australian
(59%), The Guardian Australia (55%) and news.com.au (55%).
The least trusted were The Daily Mail (39%) and The
Courier Mail (44%).
Q. Overall, do you think the news
reporting and comment on the ABC is independent and unbiased?
Total
|
Vote
Labor
|
Vote
Lib/Nat
|
Vote
Greens
|
Vote
other
|
||
Yes
|
40%
|
50%
|
40%
|
52%
|
28%
|
|
No
|
34%
|
24%
|
43%
|
23%
|
50%
|
|
Don’t know
|
26%
|
25%
|
17%
|
25%
|
22%
|
40% think that the news reporting and comment on
the ABC is independent and unbiased and 34% think it isn’t.
Those most likely to think the ABC is not
independent and unbiased were LNP voters (43%), other party voters (50%) and
aged 55+ (40%).
As for the general public's attitude to the recent attacks on ABC independence - 36% of survey respondents thought that the Government has too much influence over the ABC, 16% think they have
not enough influence, 17% think they have about the right level of influence
and 31& did not know.
Labels:
Australian society,
media,
statistics
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