Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Tuesday 23 August 2022

Resolve Strategic voter intention poll was releases on 22 August 2022 and the Coalition & Opposition Leader Peter Dutton lose more ground

 

It has been three months since the federal general election.


The Sydney Morning Herald released its 21 August 2022 Resolve Strategic poll on Monday 22 August.


According to the newspaper; Voters have swung behind Labor with a surge of support to give the new federal government a strong lead in the community with a primary vote of 42 per cent, up from 33 per cent at the election just three months ago. The significant shift has given Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a commanding lead over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton of 55 to 17 per cent as preferred prime minister….


In New South Wales those figures translate as a Primary Vote of:


Labor – 42%

Coalition (Lib-Nats) – 29%

Greens – 11%

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation – 5%

Clive Palmer’s United Australia – 2%

Independents – 8%

Other – 3%

With 77% of NSW survey respondents committed to their choice.


  • Across the state male survey respondents were the most impressed with Labor showing 42% support compared to female respondents on 40%.

  • Female survey respondents were the least impressed with the Coalition showing only 28% support compared to males respondents on 30%.


According to this survey Labor now leads the Coalition on National Security (by 4 percentage points), Jobs & Wages (by 25 percentage points), and Environment (by 26 percentage points).



On the Preferred Prime Minister question the NSW result was:


Anthony Albanese – 55%

Peter Dutton – 17%


  • Across the state male survey respondents were the most impressed with Anthony Albanese at 59% compared to female respondents on 52%.

  • Female survey respondents were the least impressed with the Peter Dutton showing only 15% support compared to males respondents on 19%.


Tuesday 9 August 2022

So how do the securely employed professional classes in the Australian population calculate poverty?

 

According to the 2021 Census, around half the people aged 15 years of age and older living in the seven local government areas of north east New South Wales have personal incomes averaging from $0 to $645 a week - which is way below the state average of $813 a week and the national average of $805 a week. Included in these figures would be the individual weekly incomes of those local residents who receive full aged pensions. 

One sometimes sees media coverage that describes this part of the state as a low income region. Indeed, the region made NCOSS mapping of economic disadvantage - coming in at between est. 8.7% to 21.3% of the population experiencing economic disadvantage across the region in 2016. By the same token, in 2016 the NSW Government rated the region's local government areas on the "Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage" (IRSAD) as between only 1 to 8 points where "1" represents most disadvantaged and "129" least disadvantaged relative to other state local government areas.

We live in a beautiful region but are not unaware that life can be a quiet struggle for many in our communities. Sometimes it is even ourselves, our own families and friends who struggle.

It should come as no surprise that when poverty in Australia is officially defined, none of those doing the defining are classed as poor or living in poverty.

Sometimes it seems the voices of those with no incomes or low incomes are confined to short quotes in submissions made to governments by registered charities and lobby groups.

So how, by way of example, are those living below a current poverty line doing financially in 2022, according to the professors, researchers and statisticians in one self-styled pre-eminent economic and social policy research centre”?


Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research,

POVERTY LINES: AUSTRALIA, MARCH QUARTER 2022, July 2022, p. 4 of 4:


Click on image to enlarge













Although this March Quarter comparison table gives an indication of disposable income it is uncertain if it takes account of rising inflation in 2022, given the only table included in the report which factors in Cost Price Index ends its calculations in 2020-21. 

What it does calculate is that total maximum weekly disposable income in all but one of the pension and allowance categories is well below an Australian poverty line established in 1964. 

However, in doing so the report attempts to minimise the lived experience of others by, in the first instance by broadly assuming that all cats are black in the dark and differences in individual circumstances don't matter and long as final percentage totals reach 100.

As one example. Not every single lone aged or disability pensioner who rents and is eligible for rent assistance actually receives rent assistance as disposable income or that such rent assistance amount is credited to their actual real life cash rent payments. In New South Wales alone it is likely that somewhere in the vicinity of 58,924 lone pensioners who rent are affected. That number of NSW aged and disability pensioners are likely receiving a total weekly disposable income derived solely from welfare payments which is not as the report suggests $59.49 above a poverty line in 2022 but in fact is an est. $11.91 below that same poverty line.

In the second instance the report minimises the lived experience of others by choosing to define all those receiving federal government cash transfers through Centrelink as being better off in March Quarter 2022 than they were in the last 49 years up to 30 June 2021. 

The sources referred to, the many qualifications applied in compiling this data or even the contents of the four tables, will not be what media commentators, political advisors and public servants take away with them after reading.

No, what will be remembered is the impression given that all pensioners live above the poverty line instead of that most live in deeper poverty than that benchmark and the statement; “Put another way, the real purchasing power of the income at the poverty line rose by 60.7 percent between 1973/74 and 2020/21.”


BACKGROUND

Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research,

POVERTY LINES: AUSTRALIA, MARCH QUARTER 2022:


What are the Poverty Lines?


Poverty lines are income levels designated for various types of income units. If the income of an income unit is less than the poverty line applicable to it, then the unit is considered to be in poverty. An income unit is the family group normally supported by the income of the unit.


How the Poverty Lines are Calculated


The poverty lines are based on a benchmark income of $62.70 per week for the December quarter 1973 established by the Henderson poverty inquiry. The benchmark income was the disposable income required to support the basic needs of a family of two adults and two dependent children. Poverty lines for other types of family are derived from the benchmark using a set of equivalence scales. The poverty lines are updated to periods subsequent to the benchmark date using an index of per capita household disposable income. A detailed description of the calculation and use of poverty lines is published in the Australian Economic Review, 4th Quarter 1987 and a discussion of their limitations is published in the Australian Economic Review, 1st Quarter 1996.


The Poverty Lines for the March Quarter 2022


The Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research has updated the poverty line for Australia to the March quarter 2022. Inclusive of housing costs, the poverty line is $1,148.15 per week for a family comprising two adults, one of whom is working, and two dependent children. This is an increase of $5.16 from the poverty line for the previous quarter (December 2021). Poverty lines for the benchmark household and other household types are shown in Table 1.


The Poverty Lines are Estimates


As has been stated in paragraph 2, the poverty lines are based on an index of per capita household disposable income. The index is calculated from estimates of household disposable income and population provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Because the index is based on estimates, the poverty lines themselves will be estimates. As more information becomes available, the ABS may update population and household disposable income estimates for previous quarters. Whenever these estimates are changed, it is necessary to re-estimate the poverty lines. Accordingly, in addition to providing estimates of current poverty lines, we provide sufficient information for readers to calculate poverty lines for all quarters dating back to December 1973.


Click to enlarge


How to calculate poverty lines for other

quarters


Table 2 shows the estimated per capita household disposable income for all quarters between September 1973 and March 2022. This table may

be used to calculate poverty lines for any quarter within this period. For instance, to find the poverty line for the June quarter 1996 for any household type, multiply the current value of its poverty line by the ratio of per capita household disposable income in the June quarter 1996 to that in the current quarter; that is, the poverty line for a benchmark household in June 1996 would be 1,148.15 × 346.11 / 977.25 = $406.64.


Click to enlarge

















Relative poverty and the cost of living Updating poverty lines according to changes in per capita household disposable income means that the poverty lines are relative measures of poverty. As real incomes in the community rise, so too will the poverty lines. The value of the poverty lines will therefore be reasonably stable relative to general standards of living, but may change relative to the cost of living. An alternative method for updating poverty lines is to use a cost-of-living index, such as the ABS Consumer Price Index (CPI). Poverty lines generated in this way are absolute measures of poverty. The real purchasing power of the income at the poverty line is maintained, but it may change in comparison to general standards of living. Table 3 compares annual movements in the poverty line for the benchmark income unit between 1973/74 and 2020/21 updated in these two ways. The table shows that, by 2020/21, an income unit whose income was adjusted to match movements in average household disposable income would have 60.7 per cent more income than one whose income was adjusted to match movements in consumer prices. Put another way, the real purchasing power of the income at the poverty line rose by 60.7 per cent between 1973/74 and 2020/21.....


Full PDF document online here.


Friday 29 July 2022

The question has to be asked. How many of the more than 9.23 million people who caught COVID-19 in the last 2 years and five months will have their lives diminished or shortened by chronic post-COVID health conditions?


It is time Australian society stops pretending it is on top of this pandemic.......


ABC News, 28 July 2022:


NSW Health looked at data from 639,430 people infected with COVID for the first time in January when the Omicron wave took off.


The analysis was done by matching the name, and date of birth, of cases.


It showed that within five months, 20,460 people, or 3.2 per cent, had been reinfected.


Reinfection was defined as a positive test four weeks after being released from seven-day isolation, or 36 days after testing positive.


More than 20,000 people reinfected with COVID within five months


Number and proportion of the 639,403 cases in January reinfected in subsequent months








..Nick Wood, a paediatrician and immunisation expert from the University of Sydney, said in theory, the first exposure to COVID should give some natural immunity that would stop people getting as sick the second time around.


"Your prior immunological exposure, natural infection and vaccine history all probably plays into how you as the individual deal with your second infection," he said.


People who were immune-suppressed or who had ongoing respiratory problems from the first infection would be more impacted with subsequent infections, he said.


"That's all the difficulties in teasing it out how severe, but I think the general, the belief is that the second or third infection are probably less severe than the initial primary infection."


Dr Wood said the BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants of Omicron were able to evade both vaccine-induced immunity and infection from a previous variant.


"The immunity that they generate is not enough to stop you being infected," he said.


He said that over time, experts hope that as new variants come along, the population is more able to deal with them because of past infections or vaccination……


On the 24th of this month The Sydney Morning Herald reported that:


Researchers investigating long COVID cases in Australia say 5 per cent of people infected with COVID-19 will develop the condition. The prevalence of long COVID before vaccinations were available was an estimated 10 per cent.


The 55,000 people in Australia who tested positive today ... equates to 2000 to 3000 new cases of long COVID,” Kovacic said. To date, Australia has recorded almost 9 million COVID-19 cases.


Even after accounting for reinfection “we’re looking at almost half a million people who are going to be suffering long-term symptoms in the coming months”, Kovacic said.


The Guardian newspaper reported on 27 July 2022 that a serosurvey of antibodies to the virus detected in blood donations, conducted at the Kirby Institute and the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS), had found that in 5,139 blood donations received from adults between 9 June and 18 June evidence of past COVID-19 infection was detected in 46.2% of samples. A previous examination of blood donors in late February 2022 had found evidence of past infection in only 17% of blood donors.


Noni Winkler, an author of the findings and an epidemiologist at the NCIRS, said the sample size was large enough to reflect rates of the virus in the broader adult population. It should be noted that seroprevalence estimates may miss approximately 20% of infections.


According to the federal Dept. of Health, as of Thursday 27 July 2022 there were est. 373,868 confirmed active COVID-19 cases across Australia. A total of 499,566 of these cases were newly confirmed within the previous 24 hours.


At that point 5,364 COVID-19 infected people were hospitalised, with 145 in intensive care units including 38 patients requiring ventilation.


The national daily COVID-19 death toll on 27 July was 126 people.


By 27 July the cumulative total of confirmed COVID-19 cases stood at 9,235,014 – a figure that can only be described as a massive under reporting of the actual number of infected individuals between 25 January 2020 to 27 July 2022.


The cumulative total of confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 for the same time period is 11,387 deaths of men, women & children. The federal Dept. of Health records that 14 of these deaths were in children 0 to 9 years of age and est. 8,843 were in people aged 70 to 90+ years of age.


Needless to say, the highest cumulative death tolls up to 27 July are in the east coast mainland states of Victoria (4,433), New South Wales (4,051) and Queensland (1,510).


NSW Dept. of Health as at 4pm on Wednesday. 27 July 2022:








In the December 2021 - January 2022 during a SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant surge period in New South Wales, when the public health response was visibly failing to meet even the most basic needs (information, testing & general support) of people expected to self-manage their COVID-19 infection at home, anecdotal evidence began to surface in Northern NSW that individuals and whole families were no longer reporting the result of RAT tests to NSW Health or seeking PCR testing where it was still available.


It was at that point that official government pandemic statistics in Australia were broken beyond repair as a predictive tool with regard to future pandemic behaviour and, effective federal-state public health strategies withered away in the face of continuously climbing infection and mortality figures in the most populous states.


Monday 25 July 2022

Welcome to the global pandemic that does what big pandemics do, just go on and on and on....

 

CSSE: Global COVID-19 Infections in the 28 days ending 2:20am
on 24 July 2021 
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 


When thinking of global pandemics there are two historical events which spring to mind, spaced a little over five centuries apart – the Bubonic Plague which included an infection wave known as “The Black Death” and the Influenza Global Pandemic known at the time as “The Spanish Flu”.


When the Bubonic Plague first manifested itself across the Northern Hemisphere it lasted approximately three years in the mid-14th Century and became an unwelcome infectious presence during another four episodes of closely spaced, similar time periods before that century ended. By which time it was thought to have caused the deaths of at least 75 million men, women and children, around one third of the Northern Hemisphere population.


Bubonic Plague never went away as a highly infectious disease capable of reaching epidemic proportions and killing tens of thousands of people during outbreaks, however a better understanding of plagues and modern medicine has kept it relatively contained in recent centuries.


The Influenza Global Pandemic of 1918-1920 caused by the 1918 Influenza H1N1 virus was of shorter duration than the plague but appears to have come in three waves across the one event. It is estimated that about 500 million of the world’s population became infected with this virus resulting in est. 50 million deaths. There are similar Influenza A(H1N1) viruses in existence today.


Right now in 2022 the world is halfway through the third year of the COVID-19 Global Pandemic and, due to four significant and increasingly infectious variants of SARS-CoV-2 developing and spreading around the world, there appears no end in sight to its pandemic status in the near future.


According to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore USA, as of 4:20pm on Sunday 24 July 2022 there were 25,973,159 new COVID-19 cases recorded world-wide in the last 28 days with 55,140 deaths caused by the virus in the same period. That brings the total global cumulative infection count to est. 569,644,897 men, women and children including 6,383,484 deaths.


Again, according to CSSE, Australia recorded 1,103,009 new COVID-19 cases in the 28 days up to 4:20pm on Sunday 24 July 2022 with 1,490 deaths caused by this viral disease in the same period. That brings Australia’s cumulative infection number since 25 January 2020 to est. 9,103,321 men, women and children including 11,172 deaths.


When it comes to New South Wales, in the 28 days up to 4pm Friday 22 July 2022 NSW Health had recorded 157,460 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases (a deliberate under reporting as it only includes diagnoses by PCR omitting reported RAT results) including est. 497 deaths caused by this viral disease. Bringing the total cumulative infection number since 25 January 2022 to 3,091,157 men, women and children across the state, including 3,996 deaths.


Currently health authorities around Australia are warning that another wave of COVID-19 infections underway which is driven by the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants and, mainstream media is reporting that almost half a million people who had been infected with COVID-19 recently will possibly develop a post COVID-19 condition aka “Long Covid” in the coming months.


So when will this particular global pandemic end? When WHO identified the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant B.1.1.529 in November 2021 the world seemed to feel quite confident that  we might see an end to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2023.


However, not only did Omicron spread swiftly it began to produce subvariants, including BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.4, BA.5 and descendent lineages. The Omicron variant group also includes BA.1/BA.2 circulating recombinant forms such as XE. WHO emphasizes that these descendant lineages should be monitored as distinct lineages by public health authorities and comparative assessments of their virus characteristics should be undertaken


Given Australian federal and state governments appear to have lost the will to keep in place all public health measures which actively resist the spread of Omicron & its subvariants which now dominate the infection pool, it is difficult to be optimistic about any timeline for an end to the pandemic within Australian borders.


In the 28 days up to 4pm on 23 July 2022 a total of 2,721 people living across the 7 local government areas within the Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) have been diagnosed with COVID-19. This is a significant under reporting as it only includes diagnoses by PCR omitting reported RAT results.


This aforementioned figure includes positive diagnoses by PCR testing in:

Tweed Shire – 1,104 cases

Ballina Shire – 613 cases

Lismore City – 347 cases

Clarence Valley – 293 cases

Byron Shire – 177 cases

Richmond Valley – 120 cases

Kyogle Shire – 35 cases

Tenterfield – incidence where there is a shared postcode which includes some Tenterfield residents within NNSWLHD not reported in relevant NSW Health statistical table for this period.


Wednesday 20 July 2022

State of Play in New South Wales on Monday, 18 July 2022 in Year 3 of the COVID-19 pandemic

 

New South Wales



According to the latest published data at time of posting, as at 4pm on Monday 18 July 2022 there were 141,747 active COVID-19 cases across the state, with 13,544 of these being newly confirmed cases in the previous 24 hours and of whom 441 lived in the 7 local local government areas of Northern NSW.


A total of 26 people died from COVID-19 disease across the state in that same 24 hour reporting period.


Total COVID-19 deaths since the start of the pandemic within NSW now stands at est. 3,853 men & women.


2,205 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were currently hospitalised, with 60 in intensive care of which 13 required ventilation.


As at 11 July 2022 an est. 47,895 people were being self-managed or cared for by household members. It is possibly that on 18 July that number was significantly higher.


On the same day NSW Health listed 2,507 health care workers as being in COVID-19 isolation.


Additionally, in the first 17 days of July 8,776 people in NSW had been diagnosed with Influenza.


On 13 July 2022 in 10 of the 15 local health districts across NSW an est. 20% of hospitalisation capacity was being used by COVID-19 patients and the public health system stress alert indicator was:



Australia-wide



As at 18 July 2022 there were est. 341,204 active COVID-19 cases across the country, with 39,046 being newly confirmed cases in the previous 24 hours.


An est. 30 people died from COVID-19 disease across the country in that same 24 hour reporting period, with another est. 75 deaths recorded up to 4.30pm the next day, 19 July 2022.


Total deaths from COVID-19 since 25 January 2020 now stand at 10,719 men and women, with the majority being 70 years of age and older at time of death.


5,001 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were currently hospitalised across the country, with 155 patients in intensive care of which an unknown number required ventilation.


Additionally, in the fortnight up to 3 July 2022 a total of 187,431 people across the Australia had been diagnosed with Influenza.


SOURCES


NSW:

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/default.aspx

https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/735267/20220713-COVID-19-Risk-Monitoring-Dashboard.pdf

https://www1.health.nsw.gov.au/IDD/#/FLU/period/%257B%2522prDisease%2522%253A%2522FLU%2522%252C%2522prLHD%2522%253A%2522X700%252CX710%252CX720%252CX730%2


Australia:

https://www.health.gov.au/health-alerts/covid-19/case-numbers-and-statistics

https://covidlive.com.au/



Thursday 7 July 2022

COVID-19 Omicron cases on the rise again in NSW and an increase in hospitalisation expected


 

According to NSW Health, as at 4pm on 5 July 2022 there were 124,706 confirmed active COVID-19 cases in the state, including 13,775 newly confirmed COVID-19 infections.


Within the newly infected group were 338 individuals from across the 7 local government areas in Northern NSW.


A total of 1,822 infected people were currently hospitalised, with 64 of these COVID-19 inpatients in intensive care of which number 16 individuals required ventilation.


Sadly there were 20 confirmed COVID-19 deaths within that 24 hour reporting period.


The Sydney Morning Herald, 5 July 2022:


NSW is facing a coronavirus wave tipped to rival the Omicron summer as the state government and health bodies push for better access to antiviral treatments and expanded eligibility for fourth doses.


Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said the NSW COVID-19 wave was expected to peak in late July or early August with hospitalisations similar to those in January. She urged the third of people who have not yet had a booster shot to do so urgently.


Disregard anything we’ve said about two doses. It’s three doses or more,” Chant said.


A national surge in coronavirus cases is being driven by the newer BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants, which better evade immunity from previous infection and vaccination.


Throughout June, about 30 per cent of virus deaths – three-quarters of whom were in their 80s and 90s – were not up-to-date with their shots.


But with fourth doses currently restricted to people over 65 or those with certain health conditions, Chant said she would support national vaccine advisory group ATAGI expanding eligibility when it meets on Wednesday……


Representative bodies for healthcare workers, including the Australian Medical Association and the Pharmaceutical Society of Australia, have expressed concern about waning immunity as infections rise. While a single booster shot is considered to still provide significant protection against severe illness and death, most doctors, nurses and pharmacists are now well over six months since their third dose.


In addition to expanding fourth doses, Chant and Hazzard both said they would support clearer eligibility criteria for oral antiviral COVID-19 treatments Paxlovid and Lagevrio.


Federal Health Minister Mark Butler has directed the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee to review its conditions for subsidised access, labelling them “too restrictive”.


Antivirals are currently available for people aged 65 and over with two high-risk factors; those aged 75 and over with one high-risk factor; or moderately to severely immunocompromised people. People in these age groups may be recommended a particular antiviral, due to interactions with other medications…..


With 1782 people with COVID-19 in hospital on Tuesday, Chant said she had not recommended further public health restrictions. Instead, she encouraged the public to wear masks and take steps to reduce their risk of catching winter viruses including flu……


Full article can be read here.