Quotes of the Week

 

"The inconvenient truth for Scott Morrison is that the Doherty modelling does not say it is safe to end lockdowns once the vaccination rate hits 70 or 80 per cent. Indeed, according to the Doherty modelling we could spend up to 39 per cent of our time in lockdown if we begin to open up when vaccination hits 70 per cent."  [Chief economist at the Australia Institute Richard Denniss, in The New Daily, 24 August 2021]

"And no matter how many times the PM quotes the Doherty modelling, his false distinction between vaccines or lockdowns is all about messaging, not medicine." [Chief Economist at the Australia Institute Richard Denniss, 25 August 2021]

“What's actually happened is the virus is considerably more infectious than the first variant that emerged. It also appears to be more virulent so you're seeing higher mortality levels, particularly in younger people. That's a much worse place we are now than I thought we'd be in a year or so ago." [Professor Edward Holmes FAA, FRS (Syd Uni), ABC News, 26 August 2021]

“Analysis: the route Gladys Berejiklian is taking is defined by vaccination rates and hospitalisations – and it’s going to be brutal” [Gold Walkley-winning investigative reporter Anne Davies, writing in The Guardian, 26 August 2021]

"But our new authority figures are a bunch of modellers who aren't physically at the daily press conferences but whose work is quoted, and more often misquoted, as the source of instruction for what politicians do, rather than being what it is: advice on what happens if politicians make certain decisions." [Chief political correspondent ABC “7.30” program Laura Tingle, ABC News, 28 August 2021]

"It’s galling then, to tune in every day at 11am to watch the NSW premier reframing her abject failure as an act of courageous leadership." [Political Editor Katharine Murphy, The Guardian, 28 August 2021]

"Berejiklian is a Liberal team player who keeps her grievances about Morrison private. But, in private, she is scathing. The NSW Premier has told Liberal colleagues she’d have preferred that Peter Dutton had won the last federal leadership ballot – she’d rather be dealing with Dutton because Morrison is so unpleasant, she’s said. She’s described the PM as a “bully”. Berejiklian went so far as to tell a colleague that Morrison’s behaviour was “evil”." [Political & International Editor Peter Hartcher, The Sydney Morning Herald, 28 August 2021]

Pigeons coming home to roost for protesting Covidiots at NSW-Qld border

 

 

Michael Corrigan, 52 year-old film stuntman from Murwillumbah NSW was reportedly arrested after participating in two separate anti-lockdown protests on the NSW-Qld border.

Echo NetDaily, 2 September 2021:

Police have arrested another man following an investigation into unauthorised protest activity across NSW earlier this week. 

Acting on information and intelligence, the NSW Police Force deployed more than 900 officers on Tuesday 31 August 2021, to conduct high-visibility patrols of various sites expected to be targeted by unauthorised protests, including NSW Parliament House and local council chambers. 

General Duties officers from across NSW were supported by the Public Order and Riot Squad, Operations Support Group, Traffic and Highway Patrol Command, Police Transport Command, the Dog and Mounted Unit, and other specialist units. 

Following investigations, a 52-year-old man attended Murwillumbah Police Station about 4.30pm yesterday (Wednesday, 1 September, 2021), where he was arrested and taken to Tweed Heads Police Station. 

The man was charged with unlawfully participate in outdoor gathering/stay at home area. He was given conditional bail to appear at Murwillumbah Local Court on 22 September 2021.....

NSW Police, News, 2 September 2021, excerpts:

During the operation, protestors crossed the border between Queensland at Coolangatta and NSW at Tweed Heads.

As part of ongoing investigations, police have today released images of five people who may be able to assist with inquiries.

The first man depicted is described as wearing a black t-shirt and cream cargo pants, with a GoPro strapped to his chest.

A second man depicted is described as wearing a faded grey t-shirt, orange pants and a blue and yellow face mask, holding a mobile phone.

A third man depicted is described as wearing a white t-shirt and a black cap.

A female depicted is described as wearing a black blouse and carrying a black handbag.

A fourth man depicted is described as wearing a black singlet and a black floppy hat, with a sleeve tattoo on his left arm.

Anyone with information about the identity of the five people – or has mobile phone footage of the protest activity – is urged to contact Crime Stoppers through the online portal or by contacting 1800 333 000.

Images released by NSW Police and published by ABC News, 2 Sept 2021

The last day of August 2021 - with over 22,000 confirmed cases in the NSW Delta Variant Outbreak to date & 100 dead - the anti-public health order folk gathered in potentially infectious groups the length & breadth of the state

ABC North Coast, 31 August 2021:

Police have responded to 79 protests across New South Wales today, more than a third of which were held in the state's north as part of coordinated demonstrations against lockdown measures.

"We really need to end lockdown, so anything that is putting that at risk is really not welcome," he said.

Demonstrations were held in Ballina, Grafton, Lismore, Port Macquarie, Nowra, Wagga Wagga, Orange, Mudgee and Sydney.

A police spokesperson said information was being collated, but so far more than 150 people had been arrested and more than 570 penalty infringement notices issued for health order breaches.

Hundreds of people have defied public health orders to attend a protest outside the Byron Shire Council Chambers. (ABC North Coast: Leah White)

Read the full article here.

NSW Police responded to 79 unauthorised protests across all 6 NSW Police Districts (PD).

 North East NSW was not immune to the anti-vax, anti public health order, pro-'freedoms' crowd and this was the result:

Tweed Heads PD (Tweed Shire Council-Murwillumbah, Byron Bay Shire Council-Mullumbimby, MP Office-Tweed Heads, Sleepy Hollow Vehicle Rest Area): 3 arrested and 25 PINs issued

Richmond PD (Lismore Council, Kyogle Council, Ballina Council, MP Office-Ballina): 11 arrested and 24 PINs issued

Coffs-Clarence PD (Coffs Harbour City Council, Clarence Valley Council-Grafton, Bellingen Shire Council, Clarence Valley Council-MacLean): 19 arrested and 19 PINs issued. [my yellow highlighting]

NSW Police inquiries into incidents at the 79 unauthorised protests are continuing and further PINs are expected to be issued, including for failing to comply with self-isolation direction ($5000).

Latest Bureau Of Meteorology Climate Driver Update, Australian Daily Extreme Temperatures Jan-Aug 2021 & Spring rainfall predictions

Issued 31 August 2021

Tropical Pacific Ocean likely to cool, but remain ENSO-neutral

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific Ocean are near average, despite slowly cooling over the past two months. Waters beneath the surface are slightly cooler than average.

While most models indicate SSTs in the central tropical Pacific are likely to continue cooling over the coming months, ENSO-neutral is favoured to persist. Only two of the seven models surveyed suggest SSTs will remain cool for long enough to be considered a La Niña event. This cooling of the tropical Pacific may be contributing to the wetter than median climate outlooks in Australia.

Most climate models predict the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event will persist through the southern hemisphere spring, despite current values rising marginally above the −0.4 °C threshold. Stronger-than-usual easterly winds across the tropical eastern Indian Ocean over the last three weeks have weakened the IOD event, however, this is most likely to be temporary. A majority of the five climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict the negative IOD will persist into November. A negative IOD increases the chance of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of southern and eastern Australia.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the western Indian Ocean, where it has remained since early August. This phase of the MJO typically sees increased cloudiness over the Southeast Asian parts of the Maritime Continent and eastern Indian Ocean, along with enhanced easterly wind anomalies, which may have acted to weaken the negative IOD. Forecasts generally indicate a weak MJO will progress eastwards across the Indian Ocean in the coming week.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index has been positive over the past week and is forecast to remain so for the next fortnight. A positive SAM typically has a drying influence on south-west and south-east Australia during winter, and enhances chances of above average rainfall over much of New South Wales during spring.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C over 1910–2019, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.

Next Climate Driver Update expected on 14 September 2021.Climate Driver

Daily maximum temperature extremes graph for Australia: 1 January to 31 August 2021

Above median spring rainfall likely for eastern two-thirds of Australia

Issued: 26 August 2021

• Rainfall for spring (September to November) is likely to be above median for south-east WA, the NT, SA, Queensland, NSW, Victoria and eastern Tasmania (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%). Much of the eastern States show a greater than 80% chance, as does eastern parts of the NT and SA. Conversely, parts of western WA and south-west Tasmania are likely to have below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40%).

• The pattern for the months of September and October is similar to the spring outlook, though the likelihood of exceeding the median rainfall is not as high in the eastern two-thirds of the country, and extends further west into eastern WA for September.

• Rainfall for October to December is likely to be above median for the eastern half of Australia, and below median for north-west WA.

• Past accuracy (Opens in new window) for September to November rainfall is high to very high for most of the eastern two-thirds of Australia, with moderate accuracy for central and eastern Victoria, most of WA and the central NT shifting to low accuracy for central areas of WA.

BOM September 2021 rainfall outlook: Taree to the NSW-Qld border

The COVID-19 pandemic and Delta Variant outbreak reveal that the Morrison and Berejiklian governments policy responses with regard to vulnerable populations appear to come from Australia's 18th Century colonial past rather than the 21st Century

 

The Guardian, 30 August 2021:

The federal government was warned 18 months ago of the urgent need to protect the Covid-hit town of Wilcannia, leaked correspondence seen by Guardian Australia shows, with an Aboriginal health service pleading for immediate help at the time to prevent an outbreak.

The Maari Ma Aboriginal health corporation wrote to the Indigenous Australians minister, Ken Wyatt, in March 2020, outlining “grave fears” for the far western New South Wales town if Covid were to spread to the vulnerable population there.

“Warnings from around the world are clear: the earlier we prepare and act, the better the outcomes will be. We cannot wait until the first case turns up in the community, or worse, the first hospital case presents,” the letter said.

“Basic mathematics says that by the time our first hospital patient presents, around 100 cases will already exist in the community, and this is based on best case modelling.”

The health service says its warnings appear to have been ignored, with no “tangible plan” put in place.

As of Monday, Wilcannia had recorded 69 coronavirus cases in a population of 720, the highest transmission rate in NSW.

A second letter from the health service, also seen by the Guardian, was sent last week to Scott Morrison, calling on him to take control of the “unfolding humanitarian crisis” in Wilcannia.

It said contrary to assurances by Gladys Berejiklian that the situation was under control, it was in fact “chaotic, and the mistakes and problems are mounting”.

“We do our work quietly, and try to fly under the radar of media and public attention as much as possible,” the letter to the prime minister said. “We cannot, however, sit quietly while the catastrophe in the Far West, and western NSW more broadly, continues to unfold.”

The second letter was copied to the NSW premier and the federal health minister, Greg Hunt..

The remote town of Wilcannia has been ravaged by the Covid outbreak in NSW.
Photograph: Chris Graham/New Matilda

.....Maari Ma has confirmed the contents of the letter, and that it was sent in March last year. Friday’s letter to the prime minister was also copied to several other state and federal politicians.

In that second letter, Maari Ma laid out its frustrations that its warnings to the federal government had been ignored. It said it had also written to Berejiklian last year.

“Disappointingly, no tangible plan was in place prior to this outbreak that could have been easily implemented. As a result, we’ve been playing catch up from day one,” it said.

“Our systems and services are ill-prepared, actions are too slow to be implemented, our responses have been sub standard, existing resources and expertise is not sufficient, new resources and expertise (for example the Army and Ausmat) are not being used to their full potential.”

Read the full article here.

March 2020 Maari Ma Health Aboriginal Corporation letter to the Australian Minister for Indigenous Australians & Liberal MP for Hasluck Ken Wyatt.

Maari Ma Health Aboriginal Corporation letter addressed to the Minister for Indigenous Australians, Hon Ken... by clarencegirl on Scribd

As of last Tuesday, it was reported that the predominately Aboriginal resident population of Wilcannia township in the Far West Local Health District had recorded 73 locally acquired COVID-19 cases in a population of 720, the highest transmission rate in NSW.

According to The Guardian on 31 August 2021:

The peak group representing all Aboriginal health services in NSW said both governments’ response to the Covid outbreak in the west of NSW “is becoming a joke”.

Aboriginal health groups met with the head of the federal government’s Covid vaccination program Lt Gen John Frewen on Monday afternoon to discuss a national Indigenous vaccine strategy, but the NSW Aboriginal health and medical research council was surprised there was not already a strategy in place.

Closer to home.......

In a media release on 31 August 2021, the Northern NSW Local Health District advised:

NSW Health is investigating whether there are any potential venues of concern in Northern NSW after a person tested positive to COVID-19 several days after visiting the Casino area.

This person is not a resident of Northern NSW Local Health District and is no longer in the area.

At this stage, NSW Health can confirm the case was infectious in the community on Saturday 21 August, and investigations are continuing.

NSW Health will announce any close contact locations if and when they are determined.

As a precautionary measure, a mobile testing clinic is being set up at Muli Muli Aboriginal community on Wednesday 1 September. People in this community are urged to come forward for testing if they have symptoms of COVID-19 or are concerned they may have come into contact with the case.

NEWSPOLL 28 August 2021: like a screw worm fly* burrowing into the side of humanity, Scott John Morrison survives and thrives

"Coalition falls as Morrison rises" reads one News Corp headline on 30 August 2021, signalling the latest Newspoll has been published.

At least one NewsCorp journalist assigns the blame for a further fall in support for the federal Liberal-Nationals Coalition to "discontent in the two lockdown states that happen to be the largest by population and electoral weight".

The poll results are reportedly the lowest federal primary vote intention for the Coalition since March 2019 and the highest for Labor since 2018, according to AAP General News Wire.

Newspoll voting intentions of 1,528 respondents polled between 25 and 28 August 2021:

PRIMARY VOTE

Coalition  36 (down 3 points)

Labor 40 (up 1 point)

Greens 10 (down 1 point)

One Nation 3 (no point change) 

Minor Parties 11 (up 3 points)

TWO PARTY PREFERRED

Coalition  46 (down 1 point)

Labor 54 (up 1 point)

SATISFACTION WITH LEADERS PERFORMANCE

Scott Morrison (Coalition) 

Approve 49 (up 2 points) Disapprove 47 (down 2 points)

Anthony Albanese (Labor)

Approve 40 (up 2 points) Disapprove 47 (up 1 point)

 PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Scott Morrison (Coalition) 

Preferred 50 (up 1 point)

Anthony Albanese (Labor)

Preferred 34 (down 2 points)

NOTE:

* The  Screw worm fly lays its eggs in the flesh of living humans and animals and its maggots grow to maturity feeding on this flesh.

MJR Hall, Natural History Museum, London

That day in August 2021 when Australia 'jumped the shark'*

On Saturday 28 August 2021, as the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant gradually spreads across the continent and, infections along with deaths continue to grow daily by epidemic-level numbers in Australia's most populous east coast state, this appeared in mainstream and social media....

The Sydney Morning Herald, 28 August 2021

Now that message may be close to the boastfully Pentecostal heart of Australian Prime Minister & Liberal Party MP for Cook Scott John Morrison, as well as in line with the political message he has been pushing since the beginning of the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. 

In fact Morrison has become quite insistent in the last week or so - in print and television interviews as well as on his feet in the House of Representatives - and like the ACL he glosses over the very real difficulties predicted by transitioning to very low public health restrictions based solely on a national vaccination percentage.

However, those difficulties stubbornly remain.......

On Saturday 28 August 2021 NSW Health recorded 1,218 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm that night, another 8 people had died from COVID-19 infections, the number of COVID-19 cases admitted to NSW hospitals had risen to 813 with 126 people in intensive care and 54 of these required ventilation.

At Day 76 the state's public hospital system is feeling the strain after a prolonged infection surge and despite a COVID-19 'community care' system at least 8 people with COVID-19 have died in their homes.

Added to this locally acquired Delta Variant infections is still escaping into the regions and out of its state borders - the latest being two truck drivers who travelled from NSW through three other states before their infectious status was recognised.

The U.S. influenced hard-right Australian Christian Lobby (ACL) aka The Centre for Human Dignity  message is simplistic and dangerous during this Delta Variant Outbreak. Because it is targeted  at est. 52.1% of the population who state an affiliation to a Christian religion, in the hope that they will put pressure on state premiers and MPs to do the bidding of the ACL:

Take action today

Using the form below, please write an urgent email to your Premier or Chief Minister and your State MPs – it will only take a couple of minutes. Some wording has been provided for you, but feel free to adjust it as you see fit. Be concise and respectful.

As always

The salutation at the start and your name at the end will both be appended automatically. Please don't add these to the letter below, eg please do not address the email “Dear MP's name”.

When you complete your name and address in the box below, your letter will be directed to your Premier or Chief Minister and your State MPs.

Right now around 10,000 people have already used ACL's 'action' webpage as requested. According to ACL's website in February 2020 it claimed a membership of 170,000 individuals who are "seeking to bring a Christian influence to politics".  By 2021 it was claiming 175,000, however the only verifiable membership figure is the 5-member board whose names are currently concealed "Due to security concerns".

The misleading ACL message about the advisability of living with ongoing epidemic levels of COVID-19 because it restores our "freedoms" is not one supported by science or the majority of Australian medical/epidemiology experts. 

Indeed, Doherty Institute modelling suggests that even at best case scenario,  if the ACL gets its way then within 3-6mths of ‘opening up the economy’ at a 70% national vaccination rate, an est. 1,983 deaths are likely to occur including the deaths of 685 vaccinated people.

Encouraging people to ignore determining risk of infection, chronic illness or death for themselves and members of their family, on the basis of an alleged 'shared' Christian faith with the ACL, is a step too far.

That excerpts of this warped message was even published by a supposedly secular national Nine Entertainment newsprint and online asset was really 'jumping the shark'.

NOTE:
* 'Jumping the shark'. Colloquial expression meaning to lose both integrity and the plot.