There is a growing suspicion that there could be almost 2 million cases of COVID-19 not included in NSW Health data due to Perrottett Government mismanagement of the pandemic public health response in the last three months of 2021

 

NSW recorded 23,131 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm Monday, 3 January 2022, including 2 deaths.

There are currently 1,344 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 105 people in intensive care, 27 of whom require ventilation.

There were 83,376 COVID-19 tests recorded in the 24 hours up to 8pm and, the positivity rate¹ is being reported as 27.5% – up 7.72% on 1 January’s positivity percentage.

It is noted that the World Health Organisation considers that it requires a positivity rate under 5% for an epidemic to be considered controlled; and then, only when the community transmission rate had declined by at least 50% over a 3-week period since the latest peak, along with a continuous decline in the observed incidence of confirmed and probable cases, as well as five other criteria met.

Total number of active COVID-19 cases in the state is est. 157,873 men, women & children – including at least one baby under 12 months of age.

Of the 23,131 cases reported to 8pm last night, 4,602 are from South Eastern Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 4,258 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 3,680 are from Western Sydney LHD, 2,969 are from Sydney LHD, 1,979 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 1,689 are from Hunter New England LHD, 927 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 703 are from Central Coast LHD, 525 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 485 are from Northern NSW LHD, 392 are from Mid North Coast LHD, 227 are from Murrumbidgee LHD, 150 are from Western NSW LHD, 124 are from Southern NSW LHD, three are from Far West LHD, two are in correctional settings and 416 are yet to be assigned to an LHD.

Adjunct Professor James Cook University, Alan Baxter, has aired the possibility that the under reporting of COVID-19 cases in NSW may represent “a little under 2 million” people.

To 8pm Monday, 3 January, 485 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in the 7 local governments areas within the Northern NSW Local Health District:

Byron Shire – 156 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483;

Tweed Shire – 136 cases across postcodes 2483, 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489, 2490;

Ballina Shire – 101 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478;

Lismore City – 43 cases across postcodes 2472, 2480;

Clarence Valley – 33 cases across postcodes 2460, 2463, 2464, 2466;

Richmond Valley – 12 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471;

Kyogle Shire – 4 cases in postcode 2474.

TOTAL 485

There are currently 20 COVID-19 positive patients in hospital in Northern NSW, with 4 of these in intensive care.

NOTES

1. Using Percent Positivity Calculation for Public Health Surveillance

CDC has a formula for calculating percent positivity of laboratory test results.

• Obtain the numerator — the number of positive SARS-CoV-2 Nucleic Acid Amplification Test (NAAT) results.

• Obtain the denominator — the total number of SARS-CoV-2 NAAT test results, both positive and negative.

• Divide the numerator by the denominator.

• Multiply the result by 100 to obtain the percentage.

[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/resources/calculating-percent-positivity.html]

Sources

• https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/2021-nsw-health.aspx

• https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/2022-nsw-health.aspx

• https://nnswlhd.health.nsw.gov.au/blog/category/media-releases/

Australia 2022: a study in betrayal

SARS-CoV-2 entered Australia on 15 January 2020. It came here by a commercial passenger jet. It was not until 25 January 2020 that the infected passenger was diagnosed with COVID-19 and became our own Patient Zero in Sydney, New South Wales.

That same day two more airline passengers who disembarked in Sydney were also diagnosed with COVID-19.

From the very beginning the public health response of both the Federal and NSW governments was never as swift and comprehensive as it needed to be.

Indeed, over the next 15 months it often seemed that Prime Minister & fundamentalist Liberal Party ideologue Scott Morrison was personally determined to sabotage any chance of coming through this pandemic with minimal viral infections, deaths and long-term health problems for those who recovered from COVID-19.

However, despite the increasing politicization and weaponing of the public health response by the Morrison Government, we almost made it through.

By 15 June 2021 Australia had limited infection spread so that the cumulative total of COVID-19 cases was 30,274 people – just 0.1176% of the entire population. Sadly the COVID-10 related death toll stood at 910 individuals, but on the other hand there were only 116 active cases remaining in the entire country and only 26 of these were still sick enough to require hospitalization. Such outcomes compared favourably with global pandemic data.

On 16 June NSW Health confirmed that SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant had been discovered after testing a man from Eastern Sydney. It was then that first the population of New South Wales and later by the rest of Australia discovered that, when it came to elected members of the federal and NSW state governments, there had been no lessons learnt from the earlier litany of public health blunders.

The Delta Variant quickly became a state-wide outbreak that was exported to other states and territories once then NSW Premier & Liberal MP for Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian – seemingly in thrall to Scott Morrison – began to insist that communities across the state must learn to ‘live with COVID’ and that the other states needed to follow her plan to re-open borders and scale back public health order conditions & restrictions. Scott Morrison threw his weight behind the only state premier who agreed with him and COVID-19 infections began to grow and spread at an alarming rate.

Over the next 23 weeks the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Australia grew to a cumulative total of 205,271 people with a COVID-19 related death toll of 1,985 individuals. The number of active cases remaining at the end of that time numbered 13,492 infected people with 557 ill enough to require hospitalisation.

There was a faint light at the end of the tunnel because infection growth and spread had begun to fall in the state that started the Delta Outbreak. So that at 8pm on Friday, 26 November 2021 the daily number of confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in NSW only totalled 235 people with 174 COVID-19 cases currently hospitalized and, 26 people in intensive care 10 of whom require ventilation.

Two days later NSW Health heralded the arrival of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant after passengers who disembarked in Sydney from southern Africa on 28 November 2021 had tested positive for COVID-19 and their test results were being sequenced for this new variant.

The most charitable explanation for what happened next was that the entire NSW Government mindlessly panicked and, with new Premier & fundamentalist Liberal Party ideologue Dominic Perrottet at the helm, decided to treat this new outbreak in the making as a purely political and economic issue. Scott Morrison encouraged this approach just as he had encouraged open borders, lowering public health order restrictions and living with COVID.

This time Morrison appears to have gone further behind closed doors at the so-called National Cabinet meetings – rumours of verbal abuse, political threats and threats of financial sanctions by the federal government began to filter out.

By 15 December 2021 there was little left of what had always been an inchoate national public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic and, the states had begun to follow New South Wales down the rabbit hole Scott Morrison had so industriously dug.

On 31 December 2021 the national cumulative total of confirmed COVID-19 cases had grown to 395,504 people or 1.536% of the entire population. And tellingly, est. 190,233 more people had fallen ill over the space of the last 5 weeks. The cumulative national COVID-19 related death toll stood at 2,239 individuals. Active cases numbered 137,752 and current hospitalizations 1,591.

By 1 January 2022 that 190,233 figure appeared to have grown to 225,560 additional confirmed COVID-19 cases in Australia in the space of the last 5 weeks. 

When 2 January arrived  there was more unwelcome news. As at 8pm the number of additional confirmed COVID-19 cases in the last 5 weeks had grown to est. 257,194 people nationally. 

The national daily number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases on 2 January was given as 32,354 people and the number of active cases as est, 188,957 individuals. Currently 1,978 infected people were ill enough to require hospitalisation (1,204 of those being inpatients in NSW hospitals), 148 being in ICUs (95 in NSW) and 51 being ventilated (25 in NSW).

While the cumulative national total confirmed cases according to the Australian Dept. of Health was 462,928 and total deaths since January 2020 were recorded as 2,258 men, women and children.

Unfortunately, after 23 months of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 , an erratic national public health response and a political response in recent months which has the effect of limiting community access to PCR tests & rapid antigen self- testing kits, the recorded tally of confirmed COVID-19 cases no longer represents a true and accurate total of the number of people who actually contracted the virus. The degree of undetected infection and the under reporting in official data to date has not been publicly quantified in Australia, but there is some suggestion that it could currently be somewhere between 20-25% and up to 50% for the latter part of December 2021. These percentages have the potential to impact on government's ability to assess probability and risk going forward into 2022.

Regions, local government areas and communities across Australia are in uncharted waters. It might never be possible to walk back the current high infection rate in the foreseeable future and, February 2022 may bring a new normal that is debilitating to national, state and regional economies, the public health system and social cohesion. 

Now one can argue about the level of virulence attached to the Omicron Variant and about whether cumulative, active, hospitalised or death toll numbers are important markers. However, what cannot be denied is that everyone of these active cases on any given day represents over time; a potential or real loss of productivity at state and national level, changes in the pattern of business profitability, yo-yoing consumer confidence, a decrease in tourism & hospitality turnover and an assault on the collective sense of safety and wellbeing. As well as a very real possibility that how Australian citizen’s cast their ballot at elections held in 2022 may be very different from past years.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In the first two days of 2022 Northern NSW Local Health District where this blog is situated had recorded a total of 715 new confirmed COVID-19 cases across the 7 local government areas and, reported up to 19 people in hospital with 4 in intensive care.

• Byron Shire – 260 cases

• Tweed Shire – 173 cases

• Ballina Shire – 108 cases

• Clarence Valley – 76 cases

• Lismore City – 74 cases

• Richmond Valley – 14 cases

• Kyogle Shire – 10 cases

TOTAL  715 

Sources

• https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/06/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-15-june-2021.pdf

• https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/11/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-27-november-2021.pdf

• https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022/01/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-31-december-2021.pdf

• https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/2021-nsw-health.aspx

• https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/2022-nsw-health.aspx

• https://nnswlhd.health.nsw.gov.au/blog/category/media-releases/

Our tin-eared Prime Minister Scott Morrison once again fails to comprehend how deeply he can offend with his constant self-promoting photoshoots

For reasons best known to himself Australian Prime Minister & Liberal MP for Cook (Sydney NSW) Scott Morrison fancies himself as a bit of a chef.

Though perhaps his persistence in displaying his dubious skills in frequent clunky, over-staged, photoshopped photoshoots could be laid at the feet of Annabel Crabb's ABC television show "Kitchen Cabinet" where in 2015 she featured Morrison cooking a curry while admitting that his self-applied nickname "ScoMo" was quite "new".

He obviously thought that episode a public relations relations success. In the years since he has pushed that #ScottyTheChef persona to a point where it has made him the subject of much derision and not a little bit of satire. 

After he infamously ran away from a national crisis in December 2019, holiday photoshoots have also been well and truly weaponised by the general public, cartoonists & satirists and that weapon pointed straight at his head. 

Take this recent piece..... 

Satirical blog The Shovel on Wednesday, 29 December 2021 when Australia’s daily COVID-19 new case count stood at 32,946 infected people including 8 dead in the last 24 hours:

With the nation facing its highest COVID case numbers ever, and testing facilities stretched to their limit, PM Scott Morrison made an urgent address to the nation this afternoon to announce a new Sri Lankan curry which he says is now one of his favourites.

“It’s curry night!” Mr Morrison said, as daily national case numbers climbed towards 20,000 and lines for PCR testing continued to stretch to more than five hours......

However, our emotionally tone deaf prime minister either ignores or fails to see the warning signs that makes it risky to promote his Kirribilli House New Year's Eve private harbourside parties to watch the fireworks. Particularly this time around as the nation enters its third year of a global pandemic.

This was #ScottyTheChef on social media on 31 December 2021 when the national daily COVID-19 new case count was 35,326 infected people, including 13 dead in the last 24 hours:

SNAPSHOT: @adamajacoby

Surely someone in the Office of Prime Minister and Cabinet had registered the increasingly naked distress being expressed on social media, as infection and hospitalisation numbers grew on the Australian east coast, public health response//support measures began to be withdrawn and individuals, families and communities were being told in so many words that they were on their own now 'living with COVID'.

Perhaps his media team might like to suggest to Morrison that he lie low the day before Australia Day 2022 as 25 January is the anniversary of the very first confirmed case of COVID-19.

Tropical Cyclone Seth brings BOM Weather Warning to Northern NSW: abnormally high tides with hazardous surf, so don't take out that boat, stay out of the water and off the rocks Sunday, Monday & Tuesday mornings

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology 

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST 

 Severe Weather Warning for ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES 

For people in parts of Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast Forecast Districts. 

Issued at 5:03 pm Saturday, 1 January 2022. 

HIGH TIDES MAY EXCEED THE HIGHEST TIDE OF THE YEAR FOR NORTHEAST NSW FROM SUNDAY MORNING  

Tropical Cyclone Seth, currently over the Coral Sea, is forecast to move south towards the northern Tasman Sea on Sunday and Monday. 

This system is generating increasing seas and swell, which will coincide with an astronomical peak in high tides over the coming days. 

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES, which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas are possible for coastal areas north of Port Macquarie. 

Water levels could reach or exceed the highest tide of the year by at least 0.1 metres during the morning's high tide on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday mornings. 

Increasing seas and swells are expected from Sunday afternoon, with the potential for dangerous surf conditions to develop on Monday, depending on the strength and movement of the tropical cyclone. 

Large waves combined with higher than normal tides may increase the risk of localised coastal erosion, particularly for east facing zones. 

A Hazardous Surf Warning has also been issued for the Coffs and Byron Coasts and will extend further south on Monday. Locations which may be affected include Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Tweed Heads, Byron Bay, Ballina, Evans Head, Yamba, Woolgoolga, Southwest Rocks and Sawtell. 

The State Emergency Service advises that people should: 

* Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water. 

* Stay vigilant and monitor conditions. Note that the landscape may have changed following bushfires. 

* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500. 

ACOSS call for Australian Dept. of Health to release more granular COVID-19 data & government to fully subsidise rapid antigen test kits for those living ion or below the poverty line

Echo, 31 December 2021:

When you can find rapid antigen tests (RAT), the cost is prohibitive for many people and the Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS) is calling on the Federal Government to provide free RATs for people who rely on social security payments.

President Peter McNamara said ACOSS are very concerned that people relying on income support payments just can’t afford $70 for a rapid antigen test (RAT) kit, leaving them unable to assess their risk from COVID-19 for themselves, their families and the community.

‘It is irresponsible and callous of the Federal Government to fail to make provision for up to three million people already struggling to survive below the poverty line. Especially when we have evidence that people living in the lowest socioeconomic groups have experienced almost four times as many COVID-19 deaths as people in the highest income group.

The people hardest hit

‘We know that the hardest hit by COVID-19 and all variants are people who are homeless, people with disabilities, First Nations people, especially those who live remotely, the elderly, single-parent households, people relying on JobSeeker ($45/day) and young people on Youth Allowance (just $36/day).

‘We need to prioritise these groups and the community sector that support them who are on the frontline, and who see and respond to this crisis first.’

Mr McNamara said there needs to be greater clarity of information from the NSW and Victorian governments on how people in these states can access free RATs as well. ‘It seems currently only registered aged care facilities are being supplied with free RATs.

‘The need for governments to keep all people safe from the virus is as pressing as it ever was. We know from ACOSS member organisations providing services on the ground that there are still certain areas and populations with low vaccination rates.

Ensuring everyone has equitable access to testing

‘Ultimately, the most effective way to protect all of us is to ensure everyone has equitable access to testing, vaccinations, including booster shots and other related health and hospital services.

‘Because of the extraordinary work of community-led health initiatives connecting with those hardest to reach, people who were hesitant about the vaccine, or who had struggled for access, are now better protected. We’ve started closing that gap in coverage rates.

Mr McNamara said the Federal Government needs to increase its investment in community-led health initiatives. ‘These are organisations working locally to inform people about the latest covid-19 developments, explain the benefits of the vaccine, arrange for them to have access to a jab, and checking on them afterwards. They are a vital complementary force to the mass vaccination clinics and GP hubs.

‘ACOSS also calls on the Department of Health to release more granular data about the infection rates, vaccination rates and death rates of at-risk groups such as those experiencing disadvantage. By knowing who is yet to be vaccinated and where they are, and their vulnerability to the virus, community-led health services can reach them and offer coverage.’

It's New Year 2022 - are we all ready for this?

                             Err....HAPPY NEW YEAR!

* Cartoonist Unknown

COVID-19 Pandemic as the country enters 2022

To recap the bad news we are all living as we enter 2022, with no end in sight....

 

# As at 8pm on Wednesday, 1 December 2021 NSW Health recorded 271 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales.

These were spread across all 15 local health districts:

Of the 271 cases reported to 8pm last night, 68 are from South Western Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 57 are from Western Sydney LHD, 49 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 29 are from Sydney LHD, 18 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 12 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 10 are from Hunter New England LHD, nine are from Western NSW LHD, five are from Murrumbidgee LHD, three are from Mid North Coast LHD, three are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, three are from Southern NSW LHD, two are from Central Coast LHD, two are from Northern NSW LHD, and one is yet to be assigned to an LHD.

Currently there were 144 COVID-19 cases being treated in hospital, with 24 people in intensive care, 10 of whom require ventilation.

Additionally est. 2,112 people ill with COVID-19 were being cared for outside of a hospital setting and a day earlier on 30 November the number of active COVID-19 cases in the state was recorded as 2,633 persons.

At that point in time only 6 cases of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant infection had been identified in the state.

# By 8pm on Wednesday 15 December 2021 NSW Health recorded 1,742 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 of which 122 were identified as COVID-19 caused by the Omicron Variant.

Currently there were 192 COVID-19 cases being treated in hospital, with 26 people in intensive care, 8 of whom require ventilation.

At the beginning of that week there were an additional 3,342 people ill with COVID-19 recorded as being cared for outside a hospital setting and est. 5,179 active COVID-19 cases across the state.

On 15 December, COVID-19 cases were spread across all 15 local health districts:

Of the 1,742 cases reported to 8pm last night, 633 are from Hunter New England Local Health District (LHD), 231 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 188 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 166 are from Western Sydney LHD, 159 are from Sydney LHD, 111 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 81 are from Northern NSW LHD, 43 are from Central Coast LHD, 38 are from Western NSW LHD, 28 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 23 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 14 are from Mid North Coast LHD, five are from Murrumbidgee LHD, four are from Far West LHD, three are from Southern NSW LHD, and 15 are yet to be assigned to an LHD.

# At 8pm on Wednesday, 29 December 2021 NSW Health recorded 12,226 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 of which it was estimated that 80% were likely caused by COVID-19 with the Omicron Variant.

Currently there were 746 COVID-19 cases being treated in hospital, with 63 people in intensive care, 24 of whom require ventilation. On 29 December the Australian Dept. of Health reported est. 70,928 active COVID-19 cases across New South Wales.

On 29 December COVID-19 cases were spread across all 15 local health districts:

Of the 12,226 cases reported to 8pm last night, 2,229 are from South Eastern Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 2,085 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 2,042 are from Western Sydney LHD, 1,767 are from Sydney LHD, 1,310 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 708 are from Hunter New England LHD, 612 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 291 are from Central Coast LHD, 247 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 244 are from Northern NSW LHD, 120 are from Mid North Coast LHD, 107 are from Southern NSW LHD, 73 are from Western NSW LHD, 72 are from Murrumbidgee LHD, eight are from Far West LHD, three are in correctional settings, and 308 are yet to be assigned to an LHD.

# The next day, Thursday 30 December 2021 NSW Health recorded 21,151 new confirmed COVID-19 cases including 6 deaths.

Currently there were 832 COVID-19 cases being treated in hospital, with 69 people in intensive care, 19 of whom require ventilation. There were est. 89,418 active COVID-19 cases across the state.

On 30 December COVID-19 cases were spread across all 15 local health districts:

Of the 21,151 cases reported to 8pm last night, 4,647 are from South Eastern Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 3,439 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 2,919 are from Western Sydney LHD, 2,278 are from Sydney LHD, 2,194 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 1,983 are from Hunter New England LHD, 821 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 632 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 597 are from Central Coast LHD, 260 are from Northern NSW LHD, 244 are from Western NSW LHD, 159 are from Southern NSW LHD, 131 are from Murrumbidgee LHD, 121 are from Mid North Coast LHD, six are from Far West LHD, and 720 are yet to be assigned to an LHD.

Between 8pm on Wednesday and 8pm Thursday the number of new COVID-19 infections recorded came close to officially doubling, 

Given the under reporting of COVID-19 cases due to reduced access to testing facilities between Christmas and New Year; quickly followed by facilities not being able to process the high numbers of people presenting; followed in turn by the NSW Perrottet Government in conjunction with the Morrison Government actively seeking to deter people from seeking testing - including limiting eligibility for CPR testing as well as rationing distribution of rapid antigen test kits and threatening to charge around $200 for 'unnecessary' test requests; it is possible the true number of daily cases in NSW at 8pm on 30 December 2021 was in the vicinity of 25,381 infected men women and children.

It would not be surprising to hear that sometime next week New South Wales reported a daily case total of over 40,000.

A total of 35 people with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis died in NSW between 1 to 30 December 2021 bringing the state death toll since the start of the pandemic to est. 665 men, women & children. 

UPDATE 

# At 8pm on Friday, 31 December 2021 NSW Health recorded 22,577 new confirmed COVID-19 cases including 4 deaths.

Currently 901 people ill with COVID-19 are being treated in hospital, with 79 in intensive care. 

As there is a 24 hour lag in daily data publication and today is New Year's Day 2022 there is only this graphic published by NSW Health.

At 8pm Friday, 31 December, 306 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed across all 7 of the local government areas in the Northern NSW Local Health District:

• Byron Shire – 152 cases
• Tweed Shire – 63 cases
• Ballina Shire – 50 cases
• Lismore Shire – 24 cases
• Clarence Valley – 9 cases
• Richmond Valley – 5 cases
• Kyogle Shire – 3 cases.

TOTAL 306

Currently in Northern NSW there are 18 people being treated in hospital, with 3 in intensive care.