Wednesday 16 March 2022

NSW Flood February-March 2022: long wait for flood insurance assessments of damaged properties & independent review of emergency services response

 

Grafton NSW
IMAGE: Sydney Morning Herald, 1 March 2022















The Daily Examiner online, 13 March 2021:


The words on the wooden sign have become a symbol of what the Tucabia couple say they’ve repeatedly faced with their insurer in an attempt to save the two-storey house they’ve owned for 30 years.


They’re one of many flood-hit families that have filled the nearby town of Grafton, with insurance delays causing them to keep extending their temporary accommodation.


All but one hotel in Grafton was running at capacity on Friday – with owners largely attributing that to an influx of emergency service workers and newly homeless flood victims from throughout the region.


The clean and tidy Quality Inn Grafton is a far cry from the horrid stench of Suzanne and David Larkin’s water-edge house some 20 minutes away, which was flooded in water half way up its second floor.


It’s devastating, there’s no other way to put it,” Ms Larkin said.


Everything is ruined.”


She said her free-range chickens were cramped in a tiny cage and her rescue dogs were traumatised.


All that’s sentimental is gone,” she said.


She said most days she had spent hours on hold to her insurance company, AAMI, only to have to explain her situation to a new person each time.


That person kept pushing back the house assessment date, pushing the chances of her home being demolished higher each time.


She said AAMI had agreed to cover their temporary accommodation cost until March 30, but the couple expected they’d live in Grafton up to two more months.


The government says it’ll give us a rental grant, but have you seen the market around here,” Ms Larkin said.


Where are the houses?”


It appears they’re not alone.


Quality Inn Grafton owner Janelle Boekman said the majority of her rooms were full of homeless families from nearby towns seeking refuge, and a large portion of them complained of similar delays with insurance companies.


It seems the companies are prioritising other areas and it’s got a lot of people upset, which is really hard to see,” Ms Boekman said.


Abbey Motor Inn Grafton manager Grant Cornish said he had been turning dozens of people away who were looking for temporary accommodation while waiting on insurers.


This town is chockers – it could do with a few more hotels at the moment,” he said.


Although frustrating insurance delays were disrupting many lives, insurance expert from Compare the Market Steven Zeller said there was no simple solution.


Insurers have been inundated with well above 80,000 claims across NSW and Queensland and it’s putting absolute pressure on them,” he said.


They’re trying to get additional staff to help with the shortage and get assessors out, but they might be isolating due to Covid, there could be difficulty getting out to these areas, there are many reasons.”


Mr Zeller said there was a double whammy of a serious supply shortage that posed challenges for insurers trying to access building materials and tradesman.


So even when an assessor gets out, you’re likely to experience a delay for several more months to have your property fixed,” he said.


We’re all in a waiting game here.”


In terms of salvaging homes before it’s too late, Mr Zeller said people could take off damaged carpets and furniture to ease some dampness but could not go “knocking down walls” until the place was assessed.


Suncorp Group, which own AAMI insurance, said it has increased staff to help with the flood response in NSW and Queensland, where it had received more than 32,000 claims.


The most claims came from Lismore, Chinderah and Murwillumbah in NSW and Deagon, Aspley and Everton Park in Queensland.


Suncorp Group CEO Steve Johnston said it had created a new dedicated flood response and recovery team that relied on aerial imagery, real-time data and on the ground insights to direct the right support.


We recognise the scale of this flooding emergency, and the devastating impact it has had on so many people and communities, many of whom are facing a long road to recovery,” Mr Johnston said.....


NSW flood emergency response scrutinised


AAP General News Wire, 13 March 2022:


NSW Emergency Services Minister Steph Cooke says all aspects of the emergency services response to the flood crisis will be examined in an independent review.


An independent review of the NSW government's response to the state's flood crisis will determine what mistakes were made and what can be improved, the emergency services minister says.


"I think we can always do better next time," Step Cooke told Sydney radio 2GB on Monday.


There are now 8000 Australian Defence Force personnel in NSW ensuring supplies reach communities that are still cut off by floodwaters, as well as helping with the massive clean-up operation.


However, there has been criticism of how long it took to deploy troops to help with the crisis and questions are being asked about who is to blame.


SES commissioner Carlene York has also faced questions about why civilian rescue helicopters were left grounded across the state as floodwaters inundated the Northern Rivers.


Ms Cooke says all aspects of the emergency services response will be examined, adding it's a complex issue.


The review will determine why it took so long to get troops on the ground in the Northern Rivers to help thousands of people whose homes were inundated with flood waters.


"The deployment of ADF troops is something that will be considered as part of that review," Ms Cooke said.


"If there are ways that we need to do things differently in the future to ensure that our communities have the maximum amount of notice to prepare and our response is timely and is where it is needed, when it is needed, then that is something that will benefit communities right across NSW."


Ms York says worse than forecast weather explained why civilian rescue helicopters were not called to help with the crisis.


Emergency crews were only expecting minor to moderate flooding in the region; less than had inundated the north coast last year.


"We resourced appropriately on those levels," Ms York said on Sunday.


Instead towns were hit with record floods, including in Lismore where waters were two metres above any event recorded.


Helicopters were meanwhile deployed to areas like Cooma, near the Snowy Mountains, to be on standby for floods that never arrived.


Ms York said the worst of the floods in the Northern Rivers had hit at night when rescue crews were restricted in what they could do.


Meanwhile, the SES has determined 3396 homes are uninhabitable and 6708 were inundated as 120 motor homes were last week on their way to the Northern Rivers to deal with a drastic shortage of accommodation as part of a $551 million housing support package…...


Tuesday 15 March 2022

NSW predicted rainfall over April, May and June 2022


It would appear there is some likelihood that the next three calendar months will see temperatures rise above median and a 60 per cent chance of an increase in median rainfall across New South Wales generally.


With the predicted above median rainfall occurring inland as far as Tibooburra & Broken Hill and along the length of the coastal zone. 


The Northern NSW section of this coast zone - from Clarence Valley  to Tweed Shire and inland as far as Lismore City - having a 60 to 74 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall.


Brief Outline


Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), retrieved 14 March 2022:


Climate outlook overview

Issued: 10 March 2022


April to June rainfall is likely to be above median for most of northern and eastern Australia, with small areas of south-west WA and western Tasmania likely to be below median. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall.

April to June maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for western, northern and south-eastern parts of Australia. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days.

Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than median across virtually all of Australia.

Climate influences include the weakening La Niña in the Pacific Ocean.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


La Niña remains active in the tropical Pacific. Outlooks indicate the La Niña is likely to end around mid-autumn 2022, with a return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions. While this La Niña event is weakening, it is expected to continue to contribute to the wetter than median outlooks for parts of eastern Australia.


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BOM: Median rainfall April-June (1981-2018) 











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Wetter April to June likely for northern and eastern Australia

Issued: 10 March 2022


April to June rainfall is likely to be above median for most of the NT, Queensland, south-east SA, and most of NSW (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%). Some small areas of south-west WA and western Tasmania are likely to be below median (chance of exceeding median is less than 40%). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June across the northern half of the NT, northern and western Queensland and small areas of western and coastal NSW (1.5 to 2.5 times the usual chance). However, it should be noted that seasonal rainfall at this time of the year is starting to decrease, so unusually high rainfall for these areas isn't as high as recent months.

While the April outlook reflects the three-month outlook, the May outlook suggests below median rainfall is likely for south-western Australia, and western Tasmania, and only a small part of central Queensland is likely to be above median.

Past accuracy for April to June rainfall is moderate to high for most areas of Australia, with low to very low accuracy across much of eastern WA, northern and western SA, the central NT, western Victoria and southern Tasmania.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Warmer April to June days and nights for most areas

Issued: 10 March 2022


April to June maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for most of WA, the northern and central NT, Queensland, northern and southern NSW, south-east SA, Victoria, and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June over most of WA, the northern and central NT, most of Queensland except the far south, most of Victoria, and Tasmania (1.5 to 4.0 times the usual chance), with the highest chances in the tropical north, and Tasmania.

Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than median almost Australia wide (chances are greater than 60%), with much of northern and eastern Australia very likely (chances are greater than 80%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for April to June over most of Australia except much of southern WA and western SA (1.5 to 4.0 times the usual chance). The highest likelihoods are across far northern Australia and Tasmania.

Past accuracy for April to June maximum temperatures is high to very high for almost all of Australia, with moderate accuracy in a band stretching through central WA and across most of SA. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high across northern Australia, grading to low to very low accuracy across southern parts of the mainland. Tasmania has moderate accuracy in the south, with low accuracy in the north.


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Historical median and mean rainfall Lismore, Ballina, and Grafton NSW for April, May and June.


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Monday 14 March 2022

So how much is the initial disaster recovery funding outlay going to be in the New South Wales?

 


Since 22 February 2022 the NSW Perrottet Government has declared 45 Local Government Areas to be disaster areas and these are eligible for support through Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements (DRFA).


Between 3-5 March 2022 NSW Office of Local Government has made $1 million direct transfers to each of the following 45 local councils affected by February-March 2022 flooding:


Armidale, Ballina, Bellingen, Byron, Clarence Valley, Coffs Harbour, Glen Innes Severn, Hornsby, Kempsey, Kyogle, Lismore, Nambucca, Port Macquarie/Hastings, Richmond Valley, Tenterfield, The Hills, Tweed, Bayside, Bega Valley, Blacktown, Blue Mountains, Camden, Campbelltown, Canterbury Bankstown, Central Coast, Eurobodalla, Fairfield, Georges River, Hawkesbury, Inner West, Kiama, Ku-Ring-Gai, Liverpool City, Mid Coast, Newcastle, Northern Beaches, Parramatta, Penrith, Ryde, Shellharbour, Shoalhaven, Sutherland, Wingecarribee, Wollondilly and Wollongong.


Premier of New South Wales Dominic Perrottet said the grants are part of a $434.7 million funding recovery package, co-founded by the Commonwealth and NSW governments, with more still to come.


On 9 March 2022 Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced:


  • An additional two weekly disaster payments for the catastrophe zones in the Lismore, Richmond Valley and Clarence Valley LGAs, automatically paid for those who have already claimed and received the Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment, at the current rate of $1,000 per adult and $400 per child. These payments will be made from 15 and 22 March. The NRRA will also undertake assessment of possible additional LGAs that also meet the catastrophic impact assessment


  • Support for Norco in northern NSW on a bespoke business support package, in partnership with the NSW Government, to help restore operations of this key business and employer


  • $10 million to support the mental health of school-aged children in the Northern Rivers region affected by the recent flood event under the ‘Resilient Kids’ program


  • $800,000 to extend the Regional Small Business Support Program to include small businesses impacted by the recent flood event in NSW and QLD for two RFCS regions, with a six month extension until 31 December 2022, as well as free and independent case managed financial counselling through the Rural Financial Counselling Service


  • $5.4 million to boost existing legal assistance services operating within affected communities


  • $25 million for emergency relief, food relief and financial counselling services


  • Approximately $6.9 million in support payments of $10,000 to assist early childhood education and care (ECEC) services affected by the floods where they have been closed for more than seven days. More severely impacted services will also be able to apply for Community Child Care Fund Special Circumstances grants


  • $7 million to expand the Commonwealth’s business recovery and resilience service, Strengthening Business, into at least 30 of the most flood affected regions of northern New South Wales (NSW) and south-eastern Queensland


  • $31.2 million to deliver immediate and longer term local mental health support services for individuals, families, and communities impacted by the disaster and to support communities to recover and build resilience across the flood affected communities


  • $4.7 million to ensure the immediate continuity of primary health care services for flood-impacted Australians


Additional new funding was announced on 10 March providing $551.7 million to support flood affected communities across New South Wales as part of the next round of Commonwealth and New South Wales Government funding. This additional funding will provide support to small businesses, primary producers, councils, households, and families hard hit by the devastating floods. 

Included in this funding round is $285.2 million for the new Temporary Housing Support package, which will support those on the Northern Rivers who cannot live in their homes while they’re being repaired or have lost their home entirely. 

It’s estimated that this could assist up to 25,000 households, and includes; 

  • Immediate hotel accommodation, to provide accommodation for four nights, with flexibility to increase while people make interim arrangements

  • Grants towards initial rental costs, from $6,000 for an individual up to $18,000 for a six person household 

  • Utilising Mobile Motor Homes and Recreation Camps for medium term accommodation Extending the Temporary Dwelling Program, which allows people to stay on their land in a caravan or demountable, for example.


Jointly funded NSW & Federal grants of up to $75,000 for primary producers and up to $50,000 for small businesses and not for profit organisations devastated by flooding will also be extended to the additional 28 disaster declared LGAs, delivered by the Rural Assistance Authority and Service NSW.


There was no indication given as to where all these funds would be sourced and little information as to which federal government departments or agencies would be tasked with distribution.


Given that flood recovery funding from 2021 was still taking until early 2022 to be delivered, a firm timeline for delivery would go some way to reassuring communities in regional & rural New South Wales.


Though I fear that the weakening of Australia's universal welfare system including Medicare, Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, disability insurance and age care services over the last nine years, when combined with the losses incurred during the 2019-20 East Coast Bushfire Season, the 2020 to 2022 SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19 pandemic, the more frequent extreme adverse weather events and the February-March 2022 East Coast Floods, will mean that there will be many individuals and families who will never regain their former level of financial stability.

 

STATE OF PLAY NSW March 2022: it's not just flooding that appears to be going on forever in NSW, COVID-19 disease is too


 

In New South Wales as at 4pm on Sunday 6 March 2022 there were 9,017 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 and 108,980 active COVID-19 cases across the state composed of people who had tested positive in the last 14 days.


A total of 1,066 people with COVID-19 disease were currently in hospital, with 49 in intensive care and of these 14 requiring ventilation.


As of week ending 28 February 2022 there had been 39,481 cases of COVID-19 being managed at home or in insecure accommodation.


Five people had died as a result of COVID-19 in the 24 hours up to 4pm 6 March 2022 – 4 women and 1 man with ages ranging from in their 60s to in their 80s.


That brought the total number of NSW COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began in 2020 to 1,948 individuals.


In the Epidemiological Week 9 ending 5 March 2022 the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) was the dominant COVID-19 variant of concern circulating in the NSW community, with both of the main sub-lineages of the Omicron variant (BA.1 and BA.2) circulating in the state – infecting 1,208 people.


The average number of COVID-19 PCR tests which were positive in the week ending 5 March was 12.1% (a jump of 2.5 % since the preceding week) and above the 3% positivity considered by WHO as indicating a level of disease containment.


In Northern NSW there were 136 confirmed new cases in the 24 hours up to 4pm 6 March 2022, with 7 COVID-19 positive patients in local hospitals.


The 136 new confirmed cases in the 7 local government areas within the Northern NSW Local Health District were distributed as follows:


NOTE: The following postcode list may not be complete due to changes to the location data set.


Tweed Shire – 43 cases across postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2497, 2489, 2490;

Clarence Valley 44 cases in postcode 2460;

Lismore City – 14 cases in postcode 2480;

Ballina Shire12 cases in postcodes 2477, 2478;

Byron Shire10 cases in postcodes 2481, 2482;

Kyogle Shire6 cases in postcode 2474;

Richmond Valley 6 cases in postcode 2470;

Tenterfield 1 cases in postcode 2475; Tenterfield is not in the Northern NSW Local Health District but shared postcodes are included in Northern NSW data.


Over the next 3 days the daily confirmed new COVID-19 cases grew by 13,018 on 7 March, 13,179 cases on 8 March and 16,288 cases on 9 March. Deaths over those 3 days increased by a total of 18 individuals.


As at 4pm on Thursday 10 March 2022 there were 14,034 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 and 133,783 active COVID-19 cases across the state composed of people who had tested positive in the last 14 days. At 3pm 10 March the national total of active COVID-19 cases was 245,042 people.


A total of 998 people with COVID-19 disease were currently in hospital, with 39 in intensive care and of these 15 requiring ventilation.


As of week ending 9 March 2022 there had been 57,635 cases of COVID-19 being managed at home or in insecure accommodation.


Nineteen people had died as a result of COVID-19 in the 24 hours up to 4pm 10 March 2022 – 5 women and 14 men with ages ranging from in their 50s to in their 90s.


That brought the total number of NSW COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began in 2020 to 1,985 individuals.


In Northern NSW there were 140 confirmed new cases in the 24 hours up to 4pm 10 March 2022, with 7 COVID-19 positive patients in local hospitals.


The 140 new cases in the 7 local government areas within the Northern NSW Local Health District were distributed as follows:


NOTE: The following postcode list may not be complete due to changes to the location data set.


Tweed Shire – 42 cases across postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2489, 2490;

Clarence Valley – 41 cases across postcodes 2460, 2464;

Byron Shire – 20 cases across postcodes 2481, 2482;

Kyogle Shire – 5 cases across postcodes 2474;

Lismore City – 14 cases across postcode 2480;

Ballina Shire – 11 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478;

Richmond Valley – 7 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2473;


By 24 February 2022 flooding had begun within the boundaries Northern NSW Local Heath District (NNSWLHD). In the 24 hours up to 4pm on that date the number of confirmed new COVID-19 cases in Northern NSW stood at 281 cases, with 29 currently in hospital including 4 in intensive care. One death was reported.


By 28 February at the height of Northern Rivers flooding the number of confirmed new COVID-19 cases was reported as being 220 cases, with 20 in hospital including 2 in intensive care.


At which point the number of people being tested for COVID-19 in Northern NSW was falling well below 200 a day. On 10 March 2022 NNSWLHD stated:


While there has been a decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases reported in Northern NSW over the past week as people understandably prioritised the immediate flood response, case numbers have been increasing more generally across NSW during this same period.

This suggests there may be a substantial number of potentially unreported COVID-19 cases in Northern NSW at present. [my yellow highlighting]




As at 4pm on Friday 11 March 2022 there were 12,850 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 and 139,873 active COVID-19 cases across the state composed of people who had tested positive in the last 14 days.


A total of 966 people with COVID-19 disease were currently in hospital, with 40 in intensive care and 15 of these requiring ventilation.


As of 11 March 2022 there was no new data revealing the number of cases of COVID-19 being managed at home or in insecure accommodation.


Four people had died as a result of COVID-19 in the 24 hours up to 4pm 10 March 2022 – 1 woman and 3 men with ages ranging from in their 70s to in their 90s.


That brought the total number of NSW COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began in 2020 to 1,989 individuals.


In the week ending Friday 11 March 2022 there were 83,035 confirmed COVID-19 cases recorded in NSW and the preceding week there had been 63,334 confirmed cases recorded. This represents a case number growth of 19,701 people.


In Northern NSW there were 176 confirmed new cases in the 24 hours up to 4pm 11 March 2022, with 8 COVID-19 positive patients in local hospitals and 1 death recorded of a person aged in their 70s from the Byron region.


The 176 new cases in the 7 local government areas within the Northern NSW Local Health District were distributed as follows:


NOTE: No postcodes available as location data set not yet updated


Tweed Shire – 49 cases

Clarence Valley – 43 cases

Lismore City – 34 cases

Ballina Shire – 20 cases

Byron Shire – 18 cases

Kyogle Shire – 7 cases

Richmond Valley – 5 cases


NSW Health reported for the 24 hours up to 4pm Friday 11 March 2022:


Data provided in the latest weekly report indicates that reported cases of COVID-19 have increased in NSW, while hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions for people with COVID-19 have stabilised during the last two weeks after previously declining.


Reported daily cases of COVID-19 in NSW have increased from 9,466 on 4 March to 12,850 today. Reported case rates continue to be highest in people aged 10-19 years. [my yellow highlighting]


The Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) is currently the dominant COVID-19 variant of concern circulating in the NSW community, with both main sub-lineages of the Omicron variant (BA.1 and BA.2) identified.


As at 4pm on Saturday 12 March 2022 there were 13,093 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 and 146,715 active COVID-19 cases across the state composed of people who had tested positive in the last 14 days.


A total of 965 people with COVID-19 disease were currently in hospital, with 44 in intensive care and 20 of these requiring ventilation.


As of  12 March 2022 there was no new data revealing the number of cases of COVID-19 being managed at home or in insecure accommodation.


Seven people had died as a result of COVID-19 in the 24 hours up to 4pm 12 March 2022 – 4 women and 3 men with ages ranging from in their 40s, 50s, 70s to in their 80s & 90s.


That brought the total number of NSW COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began in 2020 to 1,996 individuals.


In the week ending Saturday 12 March 2022 there were 87,091 confirmed COVID-19 cases recorded in NSW and the preceding week there had been 66,521 confirmed cases recorded. This represents a case number growth of 20,570 people.


In Northern NSW there were 130 confirmed new cases in the 24 hours up to 4pm 11 March 2022, with 9 COVID-19 positive patients in local hospitals. 


The 130 new cases in the 7 local government areas within the Northern NSW Local Health District were distributed as follows:


NOTE: No postcodes available as location data set not yet updated


Tweed Shire – 31 cases

Clarence Valley – 28 cases

Lismore City – 22 cases

Byron Shire – 29 cases

Ballina Shire – 11 cases

Richmond Valley – 8 cases

Kyogle Shire – 1 cases


As of 12 March 2022 there are est. 2,264 active COVID-19 cases in Northern NSW Local Health District.


NSW Health continues to suggest that there may be a substantial number of potentially unreported COVID-19 cases in Northern NSW at present due to social and physical disruption during the February-March 2022 Flood.


As at 4pm on 12 March 2022 only 4,948,656 men, women and children in NSW are fully vaccinated (3 doses COVID-19 vaccine) out of an est. resident population of 8,189,266 people. This represents est. 60.42% of the state's total population.  [my yellow highlighting]


"COVID-19 cases are expected to double in the next four to six weeks as a new, more transmissible version of the Omicron strain spreads across Australia. 

Although there’s no evidence yet that it causes more severe illness, BA.2 is about 25% to 30% more transmissible, a key concern with many Queensland and NSW residents displaced and homeless after the devastating floods." [Crikey, 11 March 2022] 


UPDATE



Sunday 13 March 2022

Northern Rivers Flood February-March 2022: surveying the aftermath from the air in Lismore, Ballina and beyond


From Northern Rivers activist film maker Cloudcatcher Media's March 2022 flood aftermath in Lismore, Ballina and beyond....

 

 


Widespread flooding began in earnest in the Northern Rivers region around 24 February 2022, but entered record level territory in some areas on Saturday 26, Sunday 27 and Monday 28 February.