The NSW coastal drought continued to grow in July 2023

 

As of 23 July 2023 – Day 53 of the 92 day official Australian Winter – an est. of 97.7 % of the land area of the NSW wider North Coast is identified Non Drought, 2% Drought Affected and 0.3% in Drought , according to the NSW Department of Primary Industries (DPI).

SEE: https://edis.dpi.nsw.gov.au/

The DPI Combined Drought Indicator mapping currently indicates that in the seven Northern Rivers local government areas of north-east NSW at rough estimates:

Est. 7% of the Clarence Valley is In Drought, est. 57% is Drought Affected and 36% Non Drought;

Est. 8% of the Richmond Valley is In Drought, est. 72% is Drought Affected and 20% is Non Drought;

Est. 7% of Lismore is Drought Affected and 93% Non Drought;

Est. 21% of Kyogle is Drought Affected and 79% Non Drought;

Est. 56% of Tweed is Drought Affected and 44% Non Drought;

Est. 100% of Ballina is Non Drought; and

Est. 100% of Byron is Non Drought.

Rainfall deficiencies, Australia, December 2022 to June 2023:

Click on image to enlarge

In north-east New South Wales, an area of serious deficiency extends inland from the west of the ranges, with pockets of serious and severe deficiency east of the Divide and in the Hunter District. [Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 6 July 2023]

Very little of what has been built in in the NSW North Rivers coastal zone appears to have a long habitable lifespan - so it's buyer beware

 

What is fascinating about this development application set out in the following article is that the Byron Bay local government area coastal zone generally, including Clifford Street, Suffolk Park, is expected to be impacted by ongoing storm surges, tidal incursion and then permanent sea level inundation beginning sometime between 2027 to 2030 – roughly four to seven years from now. With 9-15 Clifford Street being one of the last addresses to be affected in that street.

Most of the sea level rise scenarios indicate that 9-15 Clifford Street as a habitable dwelling space may only have a life of around 37 to 47 years if Australian east coast and global air and sea temperatures keep rising as steeply as they have in the last 40 years.

Barely enough time to pay off the mortgage before the unit/apartment becomes worthless.

The Echo, 7 June 2023:

The company behind a controversial mixed-use development in the heart of Suffolk Park has quietly submitted revised plans for the proposal as part of the ongoing court battle over the matter.

Sydney-based developer, Denwol Pty Ltd, took Byron Council to the Land & Environment Court after it refused their plans to build two new three-storey buildings, containing 16 units, seven town houses and 300m2 of commercial space at 9–15 Clifford Street.

Council had set out 17 separate reasons for refusing the development application when it was originally submitted last year, including factors related to the environmental impacts, design, bushfire risk and affordable housing claims.

With the formal court hearing getting underway last week, Denwol made an application to the court to submit amended plans for the project.

This followed an amended DA that was submitted in April which involved a significant reduction in the size of the development.

Published on Council’s website, these amended plans involve reducing in the number of residential apartments from 16 to seven, and the number of town houses from seven to six. There would be two retail tenancies.

Both buildings are reduced to two-storeys in the amended plans, though there is little difference in the overall height of the development.

There is also a significant increase in how far the buildings will be set back from the road, though this will require more trees to be cut down.

Resident, Lynne Richardson, said that the amended plans represented little change in practical terms because the overall footprint of the development was ‘much the same’.

Community excluded

She also said that the process by which the most recent amendment had been submitted had excluded the community.

‘I was enraged by the process,’ Ms Richardson said.

‘The only community members who were actually told were those who were due to give evidence during the hearing, and we were only given a few days’ notice to get our heads around the plans before doing that.

‘[Council’s lawyers, Marsdens] only told us a few days before we were due to give evidence, and they asked us to respect the confidentiality of the developer by not disseminating the new plans more widely. In my opinion, the newly modified plans should have been more widely circulated to the community. This affects all of them so they should have been told.’

The Echo understands that Council will continue to contest the matter in court, despite the submission of the modified plans by the developer.

BACKGROUND

Byron Shire Council - List of Applications Submitted, excerpt, retrieved 12 June 2023:

Original Development Application.

10.2022.137.1

Development Application 13/07/2022 15 Clifford St, Suffolk Park 2481 NSW

15A Clifford St, Suffolk Park 2481 NSW

9-13 Clifford St, Suffolk Park 2481 NSW

Demolition of Nine (9) Dwellings, Removal of Twenty Five (25) Native Trees and Construction of a Mixed Use Development Comprising of Two (2) Buildings including Commercial Premises and Multi Dwelling Housing being Twenty Three (23) Dwellings of which Twelve (12) will be Affordable Housing and Swimming Pools.

Details here including latest modification submitted this year.

Existing dwellings

Byron Shire Council flood mapping showing part of Clifford Street

So this Australian Winter was expected to be drier and warmer than the median mark, but now it seems twice as likely a rainfall suppressing El Niño event will also start this year

During the multi-year Millennium Drought from 1997 to 2010, south east Australia experienced its lowest 13-year rainfall record since 1865 over the years 2006 to 2010.

Temperatures were also much hotter than in previous droughts and temperature extremes peaked during the heatwave and bushfires in early 2009. This culminated in the loss of 374 lives in Victoria and many more over the larger southeast in the heatwave leading up to Black Saturday. There were 173 lives lost in the fires.

The years 2015 to 2016 saw El Niño combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the second half of 2015 further suppressing rainfall, so that rainfall was the equal fourth-lowest on record for Australia during September, Tasmania had its driest Spring on record and mean temperatures were also highest on record for October to December 2015. This El Niño also contributed to an early start to the 2015-16 southern fire season.

By 2017 Australia was again in the grips of a multi-year drought. Very dry conditions in the cool season were followed by only a limited recovery in the October–December period in 2017 and 2018. This meant record-low rainfalls over various multi-year periods.

By June 2018 more than 99% of NSW was declared as affected by drought. The most extreme rainfall deficiencies over multi-year periods occurring in the northern half of New South Wales.

In June-July 2019 New South Wales began a trial by mega bushfires, as did other east coast states, that lasted through to January 2020.

Widespread drought was not an issue for the remainder of 2020 through to the present day, given La Niña visited three times in three years bringing high rainfall events and record floods in the eastern states.

However, the Australian Dept. of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ABARE) is now drawing attention to this:

All but one international climate model surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will exceed El Niño thresholds in June. [ABARES Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 25 May 2023] 

[ABARES, 25 May 2023] Click on image to enlarge

Suggesting in its climate update that there is now twice the risk of an El Niño event this year, with a likelihood of it making itself felt sometime between August and October.

The overall outlook for this Australian Winter continues to be below median rainfall and warmer median temperatures. 

The main urban centres in the Clarence Valley have a chance of unusually warm temperatures over the winter months of between est. 55-60% (Maclean-Yamba-Iluka) and 59-65% (Grafton). While elsewhere in the Northern Rivers region unusually warm temperatures are expected in Lismore with est. 58-59% chance, Tweed Heads est. 59-62% chance, with Byron Bay & Ballina at est. 60-61% chance. [BOM, Climate outlooks—weeks, months and seasons, June-September 2023]

How this developing scenario affects agricultural growing seasons over the next twelve months is anyone's guess.

In New South Wales only the parishes of Newbold and Braylesford in the Clarence Valley are showing Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) at “Drought Affected”. 

Nevertheless, root-zone soil moisture has been falling across north-east NSW so that by end of April 2023 it was very much below average in from the coast. 

Remembering that drought 'safety net' Shannon Creek Dam, which supplies urban town water to both Coffs Harbour City and Clarence Valley resident populations (total 134,538 persons, June 2022) is currently at 92.6% capacity or 27,677 megalitres, perhaps we may see increased water restrictions by the next Christmas-New Year period. Given the tourist-driven seasonal population rise increases water consumption and that 80% dam capacity is the increased restrictions trigger.

It doesn't take a genius to suspect that should a drought develop, the 2024 and 2025 bush fire seasons might also be highly problematic for rural and regional areas across Australia.

Single mega complex for Murwillumbah public schools gone for good as Saffin fulfils her election promise of demerger

The Echo, 26 May 2023:

The significant issue of a merger of several Murwillumbah schools has been ongoing since 2020 when the then State Government announced via Sarah Mitchell MP that four public schools would be amalgamated into a single Kindergarten to Year 12 campus at Murwillumbah High.

It was clear from the outset that this was not something that any of the school communities wanted, yet the government continued to foist it upon students, teachers and families in the Murwillumbah area, but the government was determined to push ahead saying there was plenty of support for the project.

An election promise

Murwillumbah High School the site of the mega campus.
Image supplied

The new Labor Government said that if elected they would stop the merger and yesterday they announced their intention to do just that.

Deputy Premier of New South Wales, Prue Car, who is also Minister for Education and Early announced that the Minns Labor Government is committed to the demerger of the Murwillumbah Education Campus in consultation with the community. ‘The Member for Lismore, Janelle Saffin, and I have had an initial, fruitful and clarifying meeting with the NSW Department of Education about the needs of each of the four school sites.

‘The Department, in collaboration with myself and the Member for Lismore, is finalising plans for consultation with the community….

P&C President at Murwillumbah East Public School, Kylie Rose, said she was very pleased to see this confirmation from the Minister. ‘Our beautiful public schools will be staying open!’

‘Our community fought so hard to save our schools.

‘This statement from the Education Minister will be a great relief to many.

‘Labor went to the last election promising to keep these schools open if elected. We didn’t get a say in the previous government’s decision to close these schools but my goodness didn’t we have our say at the ballot box!’

Thank you Janelle

‘Thank you to Janelle Saffin MP for honouring her election commitment to keep all four of our public schools open.’

Ms Car said the department has stopped infrastructure-related activities on the Murwillumbah Education Campus project and will work with the community on supporting the four schools into the future….. 

COVID-19 NSW 2023: Counting Dead People - Part 6

 

NSW Dept. of Health, @NSWHealth, 19 May 2023

In the 7 days up to 18 May 2023 the national COVID-19 death toll was in excess of 114 people.

Between Friday 12 May to Thursday 18 May 2023 61 of these confirmed COVID-19 deaths occurred in News South Wales.

There have been no 7-day reporting periods in 2023 where NSW deaths have been recorded in single digits – according to Covid Live weekly deaths over the last 20 NSW reporting periods have ranged from a low of 22 deaths (17, 24 March & 14 April 2023) to a high of 131 deaths (20 Jan 2023).

As NSW Dept. of Health no longer publishes the COVID-19 fourteen-day tables which include deaths by gender, age group and health district, there is now no way to break down current COVID-19 publicly available death data for the state or for the Northern Rivers region.

The last published table recording COVID-19 deaths by NSW local health district was for the week ending 22 April 2023 and the last published table including a Northern Rivers COVID-19 death was for week ending 15 April 2023.

From January 2023 to 15 April 2023 there have been est. 40 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the Northern Rivers region.

All that can be stated from published tables from then on is that; as of 18 May there were 252 confirmed COVID-19 cases recorded that 7-day reporting period for the Northern NSW Local Health District, spread across all 7 local government areas and, that as of the preceding 6 May the health district was recording on a “Week To Date” and “Year To Date” basis more confirmed COVID-19 cases than confirmed Influenza and RSV cases combined.

The Australian Department of Health and Aged Care released the following information on 19 May 2023:

As at 8:00 am 18 May 2023 there are 3,132 active COVID-19 cases in 453 active outbreaks in residential aged care facilities across Australia. There have been 207 new outbreaks, 38 new resident deaths and 2,751 combined new resident and staff cases reported since 11 May 2023.

[my yellow highlighting]

New South Wales had the highest number of aged care facility COVID-19 outbreaks during 12-18 May period. As well as the highest number of aged care residents & staff with active COVID-19 infections. 

Sadly, compared to other states and territories New South Wales at 14 residential facilities also had the highest number of aged care facilities reporting COVID-19 deaths among their residents. Resulting in this state having possibly the highest number of residential aged care deaths* across all Australian states and territories.

Note: 

* The actual number of NSW aged care deaths in the 7 days to 18 May 2023 is problematic as the Dept. of Health for privacy reasons reported deaths in aged care facilities in blocs of “<6”. So deaths at the 14 individual facilities involved ranged from 1-5 elderly people per facility.

See: COVID-19 outbreaks in Australian residential aged care facilities: National snapshot, 19 May 2023, APPENDIX 1

AUSTRALIA EMPLOYMENT STATE OF PLAY APRIL 2023: monthly figures reveal fewer people have full time jobs & 528,000 workers are in the unemployment queue

 

The latest Labor Force Australia: Headline estimates of employment, unemployment, underemployment, participation and hours worked from the monthly Labour Force Survey was released on Thursday, 18 May 2023.

This survey reveals that:

In seasonally adjusted terms, in April 2023:

• unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.

• participation rate decreased to 66.7%.

• employment decreased to 13,882,100.

• employment to population ratio decreased to 64.2%.

• underemployment rate decreased to 6.1%.

• monthly hours worked increased to 1,974 million.

• full-time employment decreased by 27,100 to 9,726,500 people.

• part-time employment increased by 22,800 to 4,155,600 people.

So to recap:

Seasonally adjusted a total of 13.8 million workers remain in employment across Australia, with est. 4.8 million working less than 35 hours a week and 4.1 million classified as part-time employees.

 

While the national monthly seasonally adjusted unemployment figure stood at 528,000 persons and the unemployment rate at 3.7%. The gender breakdown for that number was 301,900 males (unemployment rate 4.0%) and 226,100 females (unemployment rate 3.3%). 

In NSW the monthly seasonally adjusted unemployment figure was 151,500 persons, being 85,200 males (unemployment rate 3.6%) and 66,300 females (unemployment rate 3.1%).

REGIONAL ESTIMATES COVERING THE NORTHERN RIVERS REGION IN APRIL 2023:

Coffs Harbour-Grafton

Employed Full-Time — 40,100 persons

Employed Part-Time — 28,100 persons

Unemployed Total — 2,800 persons

Not in the Labour Force — 55,100 persons

Unemployment rate for 15-64 years of age — 4% 

Youth Unemployment Rate 15-24 years — 6.3%.

Richmond-Tweed

Employed Full-Time — 79,800 persons

Employed Part-Time — 50,400 persons

Unemployed Total — 3,600 persons

Not in the Labour Force — 86,500 persons

Unemployment Rate for 15-64 years of age — 2.7% 

Youth Unemployment Rate 15-24 years — 5.4%.

NOTE: NSW regional estimates for all SA4 employment areas in April 2023 can be found at:

https://labourmarketinsights.gov.au/regions/all-regions-abs-sa4/. 

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), media release, 18 May 2023:

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point (rounded) to 3.7 per cent in April, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, said: "with employment dropping by around 4,000 people and the number of unemployed increasing by 18,000 people, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 per cent.”

“The small fall in employment followed an average monthly increase of around 39,000 people during the first quarter of this year.”

Similarly, the employment-to-population ratio fell 0.2 percentage points to 64.2 per cent and the participation rate decreased 0.1 percentage point to 66.7 per cent.

“Even with these falls, both indicators were still well above pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels and close to their historical highs in 2022,” Mr Jarvis said.

Hours worked

Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked increased by 2.6 per cent in April.

“This was because fewer people than usual worked reduced hours over the Easter period,” Mr Jarvis said.

“The last time Easter and the survey period aligned like this was in 2015, when around 60 per cent of employed people worked fewer hours than usual. This Easter it was only around 55 per cent of employed people.

“This may reflect more people taking their leave earlier or later than usual, or that some people were unable to, given the high number of vacancies that we’re still seeing employers reporting….

Underemployment and underutilisation

The underemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 6.1 per cent (seasonally adjusted), following a 0.4 percentage point increase in March.

"The underemployment rate is still low in historic terms, around 2.6 percentage points lower than before the pandemic, and underpinned by faster growth in hours worked than employment," Mr Jarvis said.

The underutilisation rate, which combines the unemployment and underemployment rates, rose slightly to 9.8 per cent, and remained 4.2 percentage points lower than in March 2020.

NOTE:

The April survey reference period was from 2 April to 15 April 2023.

The May survey reference period is from 30 April to 13 May 2023.

Is everyone with any authority still playing Pass The Parcel with the health and safety of communities on NSW coastal floodplains? Will the Northern Rivers see effective state planning legislation amendments before the next big flood? Will local governments across the region stiffen their spines & act?

The Echo, 11 May 2023:

Development site at 60 Tringa Street, Tweed Heads, on Cobaki Creek.

Both the Tweed District Residents Association (TDRA) and Kingscliff Ratepayers and Progress Association (KRPA) have recently called for a moratorium on existing legacy or zombie development approvals (DAs) on floodplains. The state government continues to say that councils have the ability to deal with these problematic DAs, but the evidence seems to say otherwise.

The failure of current legislation to stop legacy DAs is of particular concern to the TDRA which has been seeking stop work orders on the recent activity by MAAS Group Holdings at Tweed on Cobaki Creek. MAAS bought the property, with a 27-year-old legacy development approval on it, last year for $20M+ and have started clearing the sensitive site. The Tweed Council have asked MAAS to ‘cease work’, but MAAS have declined leaving both Council and locals frustrated with their inability to stop the work and have the site reassessed in relation to flood and environmental impacts of the DA.

NSW Premier

Responding to The Echo NSW Premier Chris Minns, who spoke to community representatives on the issue of legacy developments in the lead-up to the NSW election said, ‘My office will be working closely with the planning minister as the government works on new rules to stop new developments on dangerous floodplains – having been on the ground in the region over the past couple of years, I know how important it is to get this addressed.’

The Department of Planning and Environment (DPE) told The Echo that, ‘The government is committed to drafting new rules and streamlining planning processes to stop new developments on dangerous floodplains’ yet they have thrown responsibility back to councils saying they already have the legal power to look at legacy developments.

‘Councils already have legal power under the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act to take action against existing zombie developments, and DPE tightened planning rules in 2020 to clamp down on new ones,’ a DPE spokesperson said.

‘Councils also have powers to investigate and take enforcement action if they are concerned whether physical commencement has occurred, or if any part of the development does not comply with the relevant consent….

Action needed now

Peter Newton from KRPA responded to the DPE’s statement saying ‘it’s disappointing that the department has thrown this on Council’s shoulders given that it is obvious the legislation is not strong enough for Council to actually prevent legacy developments from proceeding, such as Cobaki, where the Council “cease” orders have been disregarded. The legislation is not working and needs the state government to step in and commit to reform.’

Tweed Council’s General Manager, Troy Green also highlighted the current failures in Council’s powers to take action on these types of DAs.

‘There has been no change in Council or state policy concerning floodplain development post the 2022 floods. The NSW State Government Flood Inquiry made various recommendations concerning floodplain development from which there have been no subsequent directions from the government,’ Mr Green told The Echo…...

Read the full article here.

Case for NO INCINERATOR AT CASINO

No Thermal Incinerator for Casino by clarencegirl on Scribd

Ongoing concerns about sustainable water supply and environmental risk, Mullum NSW

Laverty's Gap Weir
IMAGE: Echo, September 2017

Byron Echo, Letters, 5 April 2023:

It seems our elected councillors are at odds with non-elected Council staff over the future of Mullum’s water supply.

My concern is that there is no consideration in the current arrangements for environmental flow in the Wilsons Creek/River below Lavertys Gap weir. This obviously didn’t seem like a big issue when the agreement was drawn up several decades ago and the population of the area was a fraction of what it is today.

However, our population is growing and every new house has flush toilets, showers and gardens to water. Might these houses be required to at least have water tanks as every roof is a perfect water catchment?

In the last drought (2019–20) the area downstream of the weir was almost stagnant. This is a vital habitat for platypus and many other native species. Local residents also rely on the creek to water food gardens.

It is crucial that we consider the long-term health of this important waterway and the survival of both native and human inhabitants.

We need to act now for the future and put in place a requirement for realistic environmental flow.

Please speak up for the river by contacting Council: council@byron.nsw.gov.au

Linda Grace, Wilsons Creek

 

The weir at Laverty's Gap supplies water to Mullumbimby. It is a Heritage-listed ageing structure in need of repair, which appears to block fish passage in that section of the Wilsons River and operates under a licence that does not require release of environmental flows to water the downstream environment. 

There is community concern that weir capacity only meets current population demand as the weir water supply currently services est. 1,890 residential and non-residential properties and, will not be able to meet need in future droughts given access to emergency water supply is limited to only part of the town. 

Water restrictions were imposed in Mullumbimby during the droughts of 2002/03, 2006/07 and 2019/20 and, there is community concern about the degree to which climate change will exacerbate future droughts. 

COVID-19 NSW 2023: Counting Dead People Part 5

 

 

The COVID dead are not published over Easter as Australia enjoys a four day break, so most of the data in this post doesn't go beyond 6 - 7 April 2023. 

Between 31 March and 6 April 2023 there were 9,876 newly confirmed COVID-19 infections recorded in New South Wales.

A total of 952 COVID-19 cases had been hospitalised with 20 in intensive care unit. Note: Between 27 March and 2 April 2023 NSW Health records show 46.6% of those admitted with COVID-19 infections had received 4 or more vaccination doses. As of 1 April XBB and its sub-lineages were the dominant variant group in community cases. This includes XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.9.

Another 36 people had died as a result of COVID-19 infection in the 7 days up to 6 April 2023. NOTE: There is no published data on gender, age or area health service published for this group to date. However, given past NSW Respiratory Surveillance Report data it is like between 1-3 people died in the Northern River region and that they were in the oldest age groupings.

Of those people newly infected during this 7 day period, est. 220 lived in the NSW Northern Rivers region.

NOTE: Given that NSW Health in its 4-week tables only publishes local government area infection statistics for people who tested positive by way of a PCR test and in the Northern Rivers region around half the people being tested rely on the Rapid Antigen Test (RAT) to confirm COVID-19 infection, the following numbers for the 7 local government areas in NE NSW are significant underestimates of total positive tests.

Northern NSW COVID-19 Infection in 4 weeks up to 7 April 2023:

Tweed Shire — 142 cases across postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489, 2490; 

Byron Shire — 31 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483,

Ballina Shire — 57 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478, 

Lismore City — 24 cases across postcodes 2472, 2480; 

Kyogle — 5 cases in postcode 2474;

Richmond Valley — 7 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473;

Clarence Valley — 32 cases across postcodes 2460, 2462, 2463, 2464, 2465;

Note: These postcodes are based on Data NSW COVID-19 cases datasets

Covid Live calculated that between 1 January 2020 and 8 April 2023 a total of 3,952,896 men, women and children resident in New South Wales are known to have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 or one of its variants and contracted COVID-19.

According to NSW Health total deaths due to COVID-19 in New South Wales since the beginning of the pandemic are est. 6,634 men, women and children. An estimated 31% of all these deaths occurred in the 12 months & 13 days between 24 March 2022 and 6 April 2023.

Actuaries Australia published the latest excess death rate for Australia and its states and territories which was calculated at the end of 2022. That excess death rate was 12% for Australia representing 20,000 excess deaths, and 12% for NSW in which state that represented 6,600 excess deaths.

Actuaries Australia, Actuaries Digital, 6 April 2023:

Overall summary of excess mortality in 2022

We estimate that there were just over 20,000 (12%) more deaths in Australia in 2022 than we would have expected if there had been no pandemic. Excess mortality is widely regarded as the best measure of the overall impact of a pandemic since it includes deaths both directly and indirectly due to the disease.

Of the 20,200 excess deaths in 2022, we estimate that:

• 10,300 deaths (51%) were from COVID-19;

• 2,900 deaths (15%) were COVID-19 related, meaning that COVID-19 contributed to the death; and

• 7,000 deaths (34%) had no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate.

Deaths from COVID-19 are those where COVID-19 is given as the underlying cause of death on the death certificate. Deaths from COVID-19 were the third leading cause of death in Australia in 2022. The main reason why the numbers do not match those derived from surveillance reports is that the latter includes almost all cases[1] where people had COVID-19 when they died. Reported surveillance deaths will include deaths from COVID-19, deaths that were COVID-19 related and other deaths where the doctor/coroner has determined that COVID-19 was incidental and had no role in the death of the person.

For most of the underlying causes of death reported on by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the share of COVID-19 related deaths in 2022 is similar to the share of all non-COVID-19 deaths. The exceptions to this are dementia (which is over-represented in COVID-19 related deaths as frail dementia sufferers are also particularly vulnerable to COVID-19), respiratory disease (under-represented as COVID-19 is more likely to determined to be the underlying cause rather than a contributing cause) and coroner-referred deaths (under-represented, but the position could change as coroner findings are made).

It is unclear how close we are to reaching an endemic state when the impact of COVID-19 on mortality will become (more) predictable. Figure 2 shows that the latest wave of COVID-19 deaths continued in January 2023 (estimated at just over 1,000 deaths) but had ended by February 2023 (similar to the lowest month of 2022 at around 350 deaths).

The death certificates of about one-third of excess deaths in 2022 had no mention of COVID-19. These non-COVID-19 deaths represent excess mortality of 4%, which is extraordinarily high in itself, as can be seen in Figure 1. Non-COVID-19 excess deaths are particularly apparent in those aged over 75 for both genders and those aged under 65 for females only. We consider that the most likely reasons for these excess deaths are:

• The impact of COVID-19 on subsequent mortality risk, particularly heart disease, stroke, diabetes and dementia, which have all been identified in studies;

• Delays in emergency care, particularly at times of high prevalence of COVID-19 and/or influenza; and

• Delays in routine care, which refers to missed opportunities to diagnose or treat non-COVID-19 diseases and the likelihood of consequent higher mortality from those conditions in future. We understand that disrupted prescription of medications may be particularly likely to be a major risk factor for those with chronic heart disease….

Leading causes of death

The ABS reports on the top 20 leading causes of death by grouping deaths based on their International Classification of Diseases, version 10 (ICD-10) code. Cancers are grouped based on the region of the body rather than included as a whole. In this section, we assess where COVID-19 sits in terms of leading causes of death in Australia and have followed the ABS classification system.

We have estimated deaths for the leading causes for 2022. To do this, we have:

• Taken doctor-certified deaths by cause to 31 December as shown in Table 1;

• Included an allowance for coroner-referred deaths (using the historical ratio of doctor-certified to coroner-referred deaths); and

• For the leading cancer causes, we have estimated deaths from all cancers and then assumed lung cancers and colon cancers make up 18% and 12% respectively of all cancer deaths. These proportions have been stable over the recent period examined.

Click on image to enlarge

With around 10,300 deaths from COVID-19 in 2022, this puts COVID-19 as the third leading cause of death….

Excess deaths to 31 December 2022 by State/Territory

Table 3 shows our estimate of excess deaths by state/territory, before and after deducting from COVID-19 and COVID-19 related deaths.

Click on image to enlarge

In 2022, all states/territories apart from NT had significant levels of excess mortality ranging from 10% to 16% of predicted. Generally, about half of this is due to deaths from COVID-19, with another 1-2% due to COVID-19 related deaths......

In 2022:

• Queensland had a large peak in non-COVID excess deaths in the middle of the year (at the time of flu and COVID-19 waves). NSW had a smaller peak at this time, but Victoria did not have a similar peak; and

• Barring the winter peaks for NSW and Queensland, Victoria’s non-COVID-19 excess has tended to be higher than the other two large states…...

Read the full article here.