Well now the Chicken Little's of Australian journalism have moved on to other topics, here is another perspective on that latest Newspoll

 

Well the headlines this week ran a particular pessimistic line.....

Fresh Newspoll suggests Labor spiralling towards minority government at next election in worst result since Voice defeat [Sky News, 25.03.24]

Newspoll: Labor on slide as new year reset fades [The Australian, 25.03.24]

Newspoll: Worst result for Albanese gov since referendum backlash [The Courier Mail, 25.03.25]

Federal Labor's Popularity Slips In Latest Newspoll [10Play, 25.03.25]

Voters’ harsh verdict on Labor as cost of living bites [The Daily Telegraph, 25 March 2025]

So what exactly did the latest Newspoll survey results show?

NEWSPOLL, Sunday 24 March 2024

Newspoll was conducted by YouGov from 18-22 March using a survey pool of 1,223 participants.

Federal Primary Voting Intent:

ALP 32 (-1)

L/NP Coalition 37 (+1)

Greens 13 (+1)

One Nation 7 (+1)

Other 11

Federal Two Party Preferred Prediction:

ALP 51 (-1)

L/NP Coalition 49 (+1)

Click on image to enlarge

Better Prime Minister:

Albanese 48 (+1)

Dutton 34 (-1)

Approval Rating

Anthony Albanese: Approve 44 (+1) Disapprove 51 (0)

Peter Dutton: Approve 37 (0) Disapprove 52 (+1)

By way of context

On 24 March 2024 the nation was 61 weeks out from the last possible date for next federal general election, 17 May 2025.

This 24 March the two party preferred outcome of 51-49 in Labor's favour mirrored past Newspolls on:

28 April, 5 & 12 May 2019

12 Jan, 23 Feb & 15 March 2020

25 April, 16 May & 27 June 2021.

In Newspoll on those same dates the Coalition had the higher primary vote on:

28 April, 5 & 12 May 2019

12 January, 23 February & 15 March 2020

25 April, 16 May & 27 June 2021.

 

With the 16 May 2021 Coalition primary vote lead being a 5 point advantage making it an identical voting intention & prediction poll with this week's 24 March 2024 poll.

At approximtely 61 weeks out from May 2022 federal election, Newspoll was showing a two-party preferred prediction outcome of 52-48 in Labour's favour and, a primary voting intention outcome of somewhere between 40-38 & 42-37 in the Coalition's favour by 2-5 points.

It would seem this is a road well travelled and this far out from an election gives no real indication of the mood of a national electorate in May 2025.

First Newspoll of 2019 doesn't end Morrison Government's losing streak

SBS News, 29 January 2018:

The coalition's primary vote has risen in the first Newspoll of 2019, but Labor remains in front.

Support for Scott Morrison's government increased by two points, according the poll published by The Australian on Monday night.

The Newspoll shows Labor ahead in the two-party preferred vote 53-47.

The poll was conducted between January 24-27 and based on a survey of 1634 voters across Australia.

Graphics on Twitter, 29 January 2019

Scott Morrison remains preferred prime minister at 43 to Shorten’s 36 per cent in this latest Newspoll.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

That represents a 30 month long losing streak for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition to date.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll

While the Coalition's easy dominance of the Newspoll Primary Vote had ended within five months of the last federal election and disappeared completely by 26 August 2018.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll

First Newspoll for Australian federal election year 2022 - questions concerning leadership

Newspoll,  survey conducted Tuesday 25 to Friday 28 January 2022 from a sample of 1,526 respondents

News.com.au, 30 January 2022:

Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government is fighting for political life according to Newspoll with popular support plunging to the lowest levels since the 2018 leadership change.

After a horror summer marked by rising Omicron cases, hundreds of deaths and fury over a shortage of rapid antigen tests, voters have turned on the government with a sharp drop in support.

The Prime Minister is expected to hold an election in May. While March remains an option, today’s Newspoll is unlikely to prompt the PM to go to the polls anytime soon.

According to Newspoll, Labor’s primary vote lifted three points to 41 per cent, it’s highest result since 2018.

For the first time, the Coalition is also behind Labor on the question of which party is deemed better at leading Australia’s recovery out of Covid-19.

In the first Newspoll of 2022, support for the Prime Minister has been smashed with the combined Liberal-Nationals primary vote falling two points to 34 per cent.

On a two-party-preferred basis, Newspoll delivers Labor a winning margin of 56-44 – the largest margin for the opposition since the leadership change in September 2018.

Labor would wipe-out the Morrison Government’s majority if those results are replicated at the election with the potential loss of up to 25 seats and a landslide victory.

This is the worst Newspoll result for the Liberal Party since September 2018 and is worse than previous plunges in support after revelations of his secret Hawaii holiday during the 2019 bushfires, Brittany Higgins allegations in 2021 and anger over the vaccine rollout......

Back To The Future? Newspoll voting intention survey 6-12 February 2022, published 13 February

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll

The graph displayed above contains the results of 37 Newspoll surveys published between 4 February 2018 and 13 February 2022.

Two days after Scott Morrison became Australia's 30th prime minister the Newspoll survey of 26 September 2018 showed the 'two party preferred' vote stood at Labor 56 (unchanged) to Coalition 44 (-5).

 

The day before the 18 May 2019 federal general election Newspoll showed the 'two party preferred' vote stood at Labor 51.5 to Coalition 48.5. The Coalition went on to win the 2019 election 77 seats to 68 seats, with a 9 seat majority in the House of Representatives - since reduced to an 8 seat majority.

Six times between 10 November 2019 and 6 June 2021 the 'two party preferred' vote stood at 50-50.

On 13 February 2022 - just 66 days out from the last possible date for the constitutionally required federal general election - Newspoll showed the 'two party preferred' vote stood at Labor 55 to Coalition 45.

 

The Australian, Newspoll published on 13 February 2022 revealed:

FIRST PREFERENCE VOTE:

Coalition 34% (unchanged)

Labor 41% (unchanged)

TWO PARTY PREFERRED VOTE:

Coalition 45% (+1)

Labor 55% (-1)

The Greens 8% (-3)

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 3% (unchanged)

Others 14% (+3)

LEADER’S PERFORMANCE:

Scott Morrison

Approval 40% (+1) Disapproval 56% (-2)

Anthony Albanese

Approval 37% (-3) Disapproval 46% (+3)

BETTER PRIME MINISTER:

Scott Morrison 43% (unchanged)

Anthony Albanese 38% (-3)

Unsure 19%

Newspoll survey was conducted on Wednesday 9 February to Saturday 13 February 2022 from a sample of 1,526 respondents.

So many Newspoll losses mean democratic processes at risk as Turnbull Government strives to claw back political ground

“The Coalition now trails Labor by 47.5 per cent to 52.5 per cent in two-party terms across the four polls. This reflects a 48:52 result from Fairfax/Ipsos, the same from Newspoll, the same from Essential and a 46:54 result from ReachTel on March 29.” [The Sydney Morning Herald, 9 April 2016]

From May 2014 to September 2015 the Abbott Coalition Government experienced 30 consecutive negative Newspoll federal voting intentions opinion polls*.

After the sacking of Tony Abbott by his party and the installation of Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister the Turnbull Coalition Government saw 12 positive Newspolls before this second rendition of a Coalition federal government itself experienced 30 consecutive negative Newspolls from 12 September 2016 to 9 April 2018.

This polling history indicates that the Liberal-National federal government is likely to have only had the national electorate’s approval for around ten of the last thirty-seven calendar months.

According to the Australian Electoral Commission; As House of Representatives and half-Senate elections are usually held simultaneously, the earliest date for such an election would be Saturday 4 August 2018. As the latest possible date for a half-Senate election is Saturday 18 May 2019, the latest possible date for a simultaneous (half-Senate and House of Representatives) election is also Saturday 18 May 2019.

Given that (i) between them the Abbott and Turnbull governments have experienced  experienced only 12 positive polls in the last 68 Newspolls; and (ii) the Liberal Party has already admitted that during its successful March 2018 South Australian election it had utilised the services of one of the known “bad actors” on  the international election campaign consultancy scene, the US-based data miner i360; it is highly likely that “bad actors” will be employed once more and over the next four to thirteen months voters will be subjected to a barrage of misinformation, bald lies, vicious rumour and false promises from both Coalition politicians and their supporters in mainstream and social media.

Voters will have to fact check what they hear and read as never before.

* A federal voting intentions Newspoll is considered negative for one or other of the two main political parties based on two party preferred percentage results. 
Newspolls surveys normally occur every two to three weeks outside of election campaign periods when they are likely to occur more often.
Newspoll results can be found at https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll.

Tony Watch (3)

Given that there is currently not a single politician in Liberal or Nationals ranks who would make even a half-decent Australian prime minister, speculating on who might replace Malcolm Bligh Turnbull is to venture down into the dark pages of a horror story.

However, I’m willing to wager that the right-wing nutters currently infesting both parties will be whipped into a frenzy if polling numbers like those set out below continue.

Former Liberal prime minister John Anthony "Tony" Abbott was first out of the barrier with a 'helpful' comment to journalists. 

Skilfully he wielded a sharp blade by pointing out that his government's lowest polling occurred at after an "excellent" trip to Asia in 2014 to finalise the Japan free trade agreement and making "giant strides" towards one with China, then contrasting 
Turnbull's even lower polling as having come after what Tony reportedly described as a modest but significant move towards budget repair.

The  Australian reporting on Newspoll results, 26 September 2016:

The Coalition’s primary vote has tumbled below 40 per cent for the first time under Malcolm ­Turnbull’s prime ministership and is now lower than when Tony Abbott was dumped as leader a year ago.

The latest Newspoll, taken ­exclusively for The Australian, also reveals Labor has seized a two-party-preferred lead of 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent — the opposition’s biggest lead since Mr Turnbull took power.

Mr Turnbull remains the preferred prime minister over Bill Shorten, but less than a third of voters are satisfied with his performance while more than a half are ­dissatisfied.

The poll of 1662 voters, taken from last Thursday to Sunday, shows the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen three points in the past fortnight to 38 per cent and is down four points since the election 12 weeks ago.

Aside from the post-election slump for Julia Gillard’s government, which took only three weeks to lose four points after the 2010 election, it is the quickest ­decline in primary vote by a re-elected government in the 32-year history of Newspoll.

In the final Newspoll under Mr Abbott’s leadership in September last year, the Coalition’s primary vote was 39 per cent. It peaked at 46 per cent under Mr Turnbull, was 42.1 per cent at the election and has now fallen to 38 per cent.

Support for Labor has risen one point in the past fortnight to a four-month high of 37 per cent, while the Greens have gained one point to 10 per cent and other parties and independents have climbed a combined one point to 15 per cent.

Based on preference flows from the July election, Labor has a two-party-preferred lead of 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent…….

When Mr Turnbull launched his challenge against Mr Abbott, he cited the fact the Coalition had lost 30 consecutive Newspoll ­surveys.

Mr Turnbull has now been leader for 21 Newspoll surveys and the Coalition has won nine, Labor has won five and there have been seven tied.

Mr Turnbull’s own standing with voters has continued to fall to new lows. Satisfaction with his performance fell two points to 32 per cent and dissatisfaction rose two points to 55 per cent.

It leaves Mr Turnbull with a net satisfaction rating of minus 23 points, a deterioration of four points in the past fortnight and a 61-point drop from his honeymoon peak last November of plus 38 points.

Mr Shorten has a higher ­satisfaction rating of 36 per cent, up one point, and a lower dissatisfaction measure of 51 per cent, down one point.

The Labor leader’s net satisfaction rating has improved from minus 17 to minus 15 points.

The only measure where Mr Turnbull has consistently remained ahead of Mr Shorten is on the question of who is the better prime minister, where his support rose one point to 44 per cent while Mr Shorten gained two points to 33 per cent.

Mr Turnbull has lost 20 points since his peak of 64 per cent last December while Mr Shorten has more than doubled his support since reaching the equal-record low for a Labor leader of 14 per cent…..

Latest Newspoll - Labor 58 Coalition 42 two-party preferred

"THERE'S more bad news for the Federal Government today with the latest opinion poll showing Labor opening up a huge election-winning lead.

As the second week of the election campaign kicks into full swing, a Newspoll out today shows Labor up two points to 58 per cent on the two-party preferred vote, and the coalition down two points to 42 per cent.

If this 16-point margin were repeated at the ballot box on November 24, the Government would be routed.

The poll, published in The Australian, found Labor leader Kevin Rudd increased his lead as preferred prime minister by two points to lead John Howard 50 per cent to 37.

Labor's primary vote rose three points to 51 per cent, while the coalition's dipped one point to 38 per cent.

The survey was conducted after Labor unveiled a tax policy last week that almost mirrored the Government's package of tax cuts released last Monday.

The Newspoll figures are even more remarkable in that they were taken before Sunday night's leaders' debate, which most commentators judged Mr Rudd to have won.

The poll is certain to send a shudder through Government ranks, as it shows Mr Howard has not just failed to achieve a bounce from a strong week of campaigning - he's actually gone backwards."

Full News.com.au article on latest Newspoll:
 http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22633168-29277,00.html

 

Complete breakdown of The Australian Newspoll:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-23oct.pdf

 

Newspoll 2024: fourteen months out from the likely date of the next Australian federal election and the Coalition is limping along

 

The Australian, Newspoll, 25 February 2024:

Two Party Preferred Voting Intention January 2019 to February 2024

IMAGE: The Australian, 25.02.24

Click on image to enlarge

FEDERAL FIRST PREFERENCE VOTING INTENTIONS

Australian Labor — 33 (down 1)

Liberal-Nationals Coalition — 36 (no change)

The Greens — 12 (no change)

One Nation — 6 (no change)

Others — 13 (up 2)

FEDERAL TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTING INTENTIONS

Australian Labor — 52 (no change)

Liberal-Nationals Coalition — 48 (no change)

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Anthony Albanese — 47 (up 1)

Peter Dutton — 35 (no change)

LEADER'S APPROVAL

Albanese:

Approve — 43 (up 1)

Disapprove — 51 (no change)

Dutton:

Approve — 37 (no change)

Disapprove — 51 (up 1) 

NOTE:

Results are based on the responses of 1,245 participants in the YouGov survey, which are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender, education, AEC region, household income, weighting by past vote (Federal vote and Voice referendum). This Newspoll was published in The Australian on 25.02.24

At this point in time the expectation is that Australian will go to a federal general election sometime in May 2025, roughly 14 months away. 

Fourteen months out from the May 2022 federal election in the 21 February 2021 Newspoll, Labor's primary vote stood at 36 to the Liberal-Nationals Coalition's 42.

While Labor and the Coalition stood neck and neck on the two party preferred graph at 50 points.

At the actual general election on 21 May 2022 Labor won government with a House of Representatives count of 77 seats to the Coalition's 58 seats - with minor parties & independents holding 16 seats - giving the Albanese Government a one seat majority. The Newspoll of 13 May 2023 had posited a Labor win of 54 to the Coalition's 48.

Liberal-National Party Coalition now paying for Abbott's deficiencies

The gloss has gone off the Federal Coalition Government.

This is how one political cartoonist sees this loss.

Ian Martin at laberal

This is how Nielsen pollsters measured the situation seventy-seven days after the Australian federal election.

Financial Review 25 November 2013:

Tony Abbott may have proved himself electable against an unelectable government. But the first post-election Nielsen poll suggests voters find him and his government underwhelming.

With the Julia and Kevin show over, voters have shaken off some of their sourness towards Labor, cured themselves of the view that Clive Palmer represents a real alternative and are viewing the new government in a more pragmatic light altogether.

This will come as a rude shock to Abbott’s expanded backbench and provoke internal debate about the strategies pursued since September 7. The poll will quieten any government triumphalism and crystallises the question many voters are asking: what on earth is the new government actually doing?

The Sydney Morning Herald 25 November 2013:

The first Fairfax Nielsen poll since the September 7 election has charted a rapid recovery for the ALP, with the opposition shooting to a 52-48 per cent lead over the government on the preferences of respondents - the quickest poll lead achieved by any federal opposition after losing an election.

By 25 November 2013 the results of a Newspoll survey had confirmed the Coalition’s tarnished image.

The Australian 25 October 2013:

And as the Prime Minister's personal support has dropped from a post-election high, the Opposition Leader's voter satisfaction continues to rise.

According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian on the weekend, the Coalition's primary vote went from 45 per cent two weeks ago to 43 per cent as Labor's rose from 32 per cent to 35 per cent. Greens' support went from 12 per cent two weeks ago to 10 per cent, and ``others'' went from 11 per cent to 12 per cent.

Financial Review 26 November 2013:

A second poll in as many days has shown fading support for Tony Abbott’s Coalition government since the September 7 federal election, with a Newspoll published on Tuesday showing a 1.5 per cent swing against the government on a two-party preferred basis.

The poll, published in The Australian, found that the Coalition’s share of the two-party vote had eased to 52 per cent to Labor’s 48 per cent, down from 56 per cent to 44 per cent in a Newspoll taken in late October.

The October Newspoll had shown the Coalition increasing its share of the two-party vote since the election. At the election, the Coalition’s two-party preferred result was 53.5 per cent to Labor’s 46.5 per cent.

Australian Federal Election 2022: it seems we live in interesting times.

 

IMAGE: The Australian, 18 April 2022
Click on image to enlarge

Another Newspoll was published by The Australian on 18 April 2022.  

The results were as follows......

Survey of Federal Election Voting Intentions

First Preference:

Labor – 36% (down 1 on10 April poll)

Coalition – 35% (down 1 on10 April poll)

Greens – 12% ( up 2 since10 April poll)

One Nation – 4% (up 1 since 10 April poll)

United Australia Party – 4% (no change since10 April poll)

Others – 9% (down 1 since 10 April poll)

Two Party Preferred:

Labor 53% – (no change since 10 April poll)

Coalition – 47% (no change since 10 April poll)

Better PM:

Scott Morrison – 44% (no change since 10 April poll)

Anthony Albanese – 37% (down 2 since 10 April poll)

Undecided – 19% (up 2 since 10 April poll)

Satisfaction with Leaders Performance:

Scott Morrison – Satisfied 43% (up 1), Dissatisfied 52% (down 2) & Uncommitted est. 5%

Anthony Albanese – Satisfied 37% (down 5), Dissatisfied 51% (up 6) & Uncommitted est. 12%

Net Satisfaction with Leaders Performance:

Scott Morrison – minus 9% (up 3)

Anthony Albanese – minus 14% (down 11)

On the basis of the two party preferred percentage points if an election had been held between 14-17 April 2022 then Labor would have won government, with possibly 80 seats in the House of Representatives to the Coalition’s 65 seats. This is the same outcome predicted by the Newspoll results of 6-9 April, but markedly less favourable to Labor than the Newspoll survey results of  31 March-3 April.

Resolve Strategic-9 Entertainment released the results of a limited voter intention survey on Sunday 17 April 2022, which had primary voting intention coming in at Coalition 35% to Labor 34%. Poll Bludger ran the 2019 Two Party Preferred data against those percentages & the outcome went Labor 52% to Coalition 48%. Which means that if an election had been held between 11-16 April Labor would likely have won with 9 seat lead in the House of Representatives. This was somewhat awkward for those editors, commentators & journalists who had initially been predicting an outright win for Morrison on the basis of that particular survey.

Newspoll results show the Morrison Government losing ground since 27 June 2021 and Labor in positive Two Party Preferred territory across the same period. Enthusiasm for Scott Morrison as “Preferred PM” has been gradually falling since 21 February 2021 but Anthony Albanese has been lagging behind Morrison on this particular indicator in all but one Newspoll during the same period. In itself “Preferred PM” is not a stand alone indicator of success at a federal election and party leaders do go on to win government will less than stellar approval numbers.

However, mainstream media is reporting a record number of “Independent” candidates registering for the coming federal election and, on social media platforms there is some anecdotal evidence of strong support for such candidates and for The Greens. If predictive percentages tighten ahead of election day, this support may translate into more than 6 House of Representative seats going to Independents/minor parties and it is possible that neither of the two major parties will achieve an outright majority at the 21 May federal election. 

Four of these independent candidates have stated a willingness to enter into talks with Scott Morrison if citizens' ballot papers do not deliver him a clear majority - 51.5% of the national vote. These candidates are; Zoe Daniel (Ind Goldstein Vic), Allegra Spender (Ind Wentworth NSW), Sophie Scamps (Ind Mackellar NSW) and Kate Chaney (Ind Curtin WA). 

It seems we are living in interesting times.