Australia Institute Survey Reveals: Bushfires Cost 1.8 million Work Days, Leave 5 Million Sick from Smoke

The Australia Institute, media release, 23 January 2020: 

Survey Reveals: Bushfires Cost 1.8 million Work Days, Leave 5 Million Sick from Smoke 

New national survey research from The Australia Institute reveals most Australians have been personally impacted by the bushfires and smoke, including millions missing work or suffering health impacts. 

Additionally, the research shows concern about the impacts of climate change are especially high among those directly affected by the fires, as is the wish for the Government to do more to reduce carbon emissions. 

Key points 

- 57% of respondents reported some kind of direct impact from the bushfires and smoke. 

- 26% of survey respondents experienced negative health impacts from the fires’ smoke, representing 5.1 million Australian adults. 

• Health impacts were more widely reported in NSW (35%) and Victoria (29%). 

- 17% of full time workers and 8% of part time workers, representing 1.8 million Australians, reported they had missed work due to the fires. 

• This alone is estimated to have costed more than $1.3 billion in lost economic production, assuming only one lost day per worker. 

- Direct experience of impacts was associated with stronger concern about climate change. 

“Australia is in the grip of a national climate disaster. The social, economic and medical impacts are vast and only just starting to become clear,” said Tom Swann, senior researcher at the Australia Institute. 

“Our research shows that it’s likely more than 5 million Australian adults, along with many children, have suffered negative health impacts as a result of the fires and at least 1.5 million have missed work. 

“Even looking simply at lost work days, the bill is in the billions of dollars. The broader impacts and recovery efforts will cost many billions more and take many years. That is why it is so concerning that rising emissions threaten to make events like this even more common in the future. 

“Putting a levy on fossil fuel producers and establishing a National Climate Disaster Fund would move some of the financial burden of these events from the households, businesses and taxpayers that are currently forced to pick up the tab. 

“This research suggests that, as Australians face the escalating impacts of climate change in their own lives, calls for policies that reduce carbon emissions will continue to grow.” 

A polling brief, including detailed results, is available here.

Australian Election Study survey conducted after 2019 federal election found Scott Morrison is most popular leader since 2007 - but not as popular as Kevin Rudd in his heigh day

The Australian Election Study (AES) has surveyed voters since 1987. With the exception of 1987 and 2007 the survey has been funded by the Australian Research Council and its predecessors.

AES surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,179 voters after the 2019 Australian federal election to find out what shaped their choices in the election.

The respondents were composed of two groups - those who originally took part in the 2016 Australian Election Study and those who were newly surveyed for the 2019 study.

apo.og.au, Australian Election Study, 6 December 2019, Sarah Cameron, Ian McAllister, 2019 Australian federal election: results from the Australian Election Study, Description, excerpt: 

Highlights: 

Policy issues 

• A majority of voters (66%) cast their ballots based on policy issues. 

• The most important issues in the election identified by voters include management of the economy (24%), health (22%) and environmental issues (21%). 

• Voters preferred the Coalition’s policies on management of the economy, taxation, and immigration. 

• Voters preferred Labor’s policies on education, health, and the environment. 

Leaders

• Scott Morrison is the most popular political leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, scoring 5.1 on a zero to 10 popularity scale. [Note: In 2007 AES recorded Kevin Rudd as 6.3 on a zero to 10 popularity scale**]

• Bill Shorten is the least popular leader of a major political party since 1990. 

• A majority of voters (74%) disapproved of the way the Liberal Party handled the leadership change in 2018, when Scott Morrison replaced Malcolm Turnbull. 

Political trust 

• Satisfaction with democracy is at its lowest level (59%) since the constitutional crisis of the 1970s. 

• Trust in government has reached its lowest level on record, with just 25% believing people in government can be trusted. 

• 56% of Australians believe that the government is run for ‘a few big interests’, while just 12% believe the government is run for ‘all the people’.  [my additional notation]

According to AES in 2007 eighty-six per cent of Australians were satisfied with the way democracy was working. However since then democratic satisfaction has fallen by twenty-seven per cent and “there has been a pattern of declining citizen trust in the political system. Trust has not declined significantly since the 2016 election, but nor has it recovered from record low levels”. 

That 2019 record low trust level represented a twenty percent decline after 2007.

In the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison years the perception that people in government look after themselves rose from 66% in 2013 to 74% in 2016 and 75% in 2019.

After the 2019 federal election only 1 in 4 Australians believe that people in government can be trusted to do the right thing.

The complete study can be read and downloaded here.

** other leaders besides Kevin Rudd who have gone to an election with an AES popularity score higher than that of Scott Morrison were; Bob Hawke (1987 & 1990), Kim Beazley (1988 & 2001), John Howard (1993,1996, 1998, 2001, 2004) and John Hewson (1993).

Australian political leaders and voter perception at the end of 2019

On 8 December 2019 The Australian published its final Newspoll survey for the year.

This YouGov poll of voter intentions/attitude is now an online survey of 1,519 respondents.

It is interesting to note that although both leaders' net satisfaction ratings are in negative territory (Anthony Albanese -1 and Scott Morrison -3) it is Scott Morrison who has been trailing since 10 November 2019.

One has to wonder if the prime minister's underwhelming performance during this unprecedented bushfire season has begun to change voter perceptions.

The Australian, 9 December 2019, p.4:

While Mr Morrison was regarded as being a stronger and more decisive leader than Mr ­Albanese, voters believed he was also more arrogant....

On this measure, 58 per cent of people described the Prime Minister as arrogant compared with 40 per cent assigning this attribute to Mr Albanese.

Both leaders were regarded as being more or less equally trustworthy, which reverses the trend between Mr Morrison and Mr Shorten where the gap was seven points in favour of Mr Morrison. Mr Albanese also levelled the playing field on likeability, with Mr Morrison previously holding a large margin over Mr Shorten.

On the measures of being in touch with voters and understanding the major issues, there was little daylight between the leaders.

But Mr Albanese was regarded as being more caring for people, while Mr Morrison was regarded as being more experienced.....

So who do Australian trust the least these days?

Between 20 July and 29 July 2019 fifty-four thousand nine hundred and seventy (54,970) Australia Talks National Survey respondents were shown eleven professional categories and asked to rank them by level of trust.

The online survey question was; "How much do you trust each of the following?"

This was the result based on the proportion of respondents supporting each political party who answered "somewhat" or "a lot".

ABC News, 27 November 2019

It seems that the least trusted professions are:

1. Celebrities - 8%
2. Politicians - 19%
3. Corporate Exectutives - 20%
4. Religious Leaders - 29%.

The most trusted professions are:

1. Doctors & Nurses - 97%
2. Scientists - 93%
3. Police & Law Enforcement - 84%
4. Judges 80%.

Only 5 more sleeps until federal polling day across Australia & Newspoll still predicts that the Morrison Coalition will lose government

This is the 54th consecutive Newspoll in which Labor leads on a Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis.

The last time the Coalition scored a higher TPP than Labor was on election day in 2016.

Primary Vote - Coalition 39 (up 1 point) Labor 37 (up 1 point)

Two Party Preferred (TPP) Vote - Coalition 49 (unchanged) Labor 51(unchanged)

Voter Net Satisfaction with Leaders - Scott Morrison 0 (up 1 point)  Bill  Shorten -10 (up 8 points)

Newspoll results 11-12 May 2019, published 13 May 2019

If an election was held today then Labor would form government with 77 House of Representatives seats to the Coalition's 68 seats.

Both Pauline Hanson's One Nation and Clive Palmer's United Australia Party would have 0 seats in the Lower House.

Based on preference flows at the June 2016 federal election Antony Green predicts that Labor will gain the electorates of Robertson (NSW), Gilmore (NSW), Flynn (Qld), Ford (Qld) and Capricornia (Qld).

All five of these electorates were held by either the Liberal Party or Liberal-National Party at the 2016 election.

Previous Newspolls

Thirteen days out from the 2019 Australian federal election and the polls look like this

Newspoll, published 5 May 2019

Primary Vote – Coalition 38 (unchanged) Labor 36 (down 1 point)

Voter Net Satisfaction with Leaders – Morrison -1 (unchanged) Shorten -18 (down 6 points)

This is the 54th consecutive Newspoll in which Labor leads on a Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis.

The last time the Coaltion scored a higher TPP than Labor was on election day in 2016.

Between the 19 June 2017 and the 5 May 2019 Newspoll the Coalition only bested Labor on a Primary Vote basis 11 times out of a total of 42 polls. Only 3 of those higher primary vote scores occurred after Scott Morrison ousted Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister.

Past Newspoll results.

IPSOS poll, published 5 May 2019

Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and Newspoll results tighten

Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and the losing streak is not yet over for the Morrison Government.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

Which means the losing streak has now stretched to just under 34 months.

53rd Newpoll results – published 29 April 2019:

Primary Vote – Labor 37 percent (down 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 38 per cent (down 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 4 per cent (unchanged).

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 51 per cent (down 1 point) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 49 per cent (up 1 point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -1 point (down 1 point) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -12 points (up 2 points).

If a federal election had been held on 29 April 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a majority 77 seats (down 5 seats since 16 April poll ) to the Coalition's 68 seats (up 5 seats since 16 April poll) in the House of Representatives.

According to Antony Green's Swing Calculator the 27-28 April 2019 Newspoll results will see the Nationals retain the Page and Cowper electorates and Labor retain the Richmond electorate.

In other words the status quo is predicted to remain for another three years – the Nationals having held Page since 2013 and Cowper since 2001. Labor has held Richmond since 2004.

No matter how had they dance and prance Scott Morrison & Co just can't turn Newspoll around

Only 32 days out from the 2019 federal election and the losing streak is not yet over for the Morrison Government.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

Which means the losing streak has now stretched to a little over 33 months.

52nd Newpoll results – published 15 April 2019:

Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (up 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 39 per cent (up 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 4 per cent (down 2 points).

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 52 per cent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 48 per cent (up 1 point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison 1 point (down 1 point) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -14 points (unchanged).

If a federal election had been held on14 April 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a majority 82 seats (unchanged since 7 April poll ) to the Coalition's 63 seats (unchanged since 7 April poll) in the House of Representatives.

According to Antony Green's Swing Calculator the 11-14 April 2019 Newspoll results will see Labor gain the Page electorate and retain the Richmond electorate, with Cowper electorate being retained by the Nationals.

51st losing Newspoll in a row for Australian Liberal-Nationals Coalition Government

The losing streak is not yet over for the Morrison Government.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

Which means the losing streak has now stretched to 33 months.

51st Newpoll results – 7 April 2019:

Primary Vote – Labor 37 percent (down 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 38 per cent (up 2 points), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 6 per cent (down 1 point).

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 52 per cent (down 1 point) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 47 per cent (up 1 point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison 2 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -14 points.

If a federal election had been held on 7 April 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a majority 82 seats (down 2 seats since March poll) to the Coalition's 63 seats (up 4 seats since March poll) in the House of Representatives.

Sportsbet is taking bets on voting outcomes in individual federal electorates.

In Page the current odds are Labor $1.64 Coalition $2.05 Greens $31.00, in Richmond Labor $1.05 Coalition $7.50 Greens $31.00, and in Cowper Independent $1.72 Coalition $1.93 Labor $21.00 Greens $51.00.

UPDATE

According to Antony Green’s Swing Calculator Newspoll results for 4-7 April 2019 mean that the electorates of Page and Richmond will both have Labor MPs while Cowper will have a Nationals MP after the May federal election.

The IPSOS poll of 3-5 April 2019 produces the same results.

State of Play 11 March 2019: as both Australian federal election and New South Wales state election grow near

A Newspoll survey of 1,610 Australian voted was conducted between Thursday 7 March and Sunday 10 March 2019.

The Federal Liberal-Nationals Coalition Government suffered its 50th consecutive loss on a Two-Party Preferred (TPP) basis since June 2016 in this latest Newspoll.

50th Newpoll results:

Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals 36 per cent (down 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent, One Nation 7 per cent.

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 53 per cent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 46 per cent (down 1point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -2 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -15 points.

If a federal election had been held on 10 March 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016 then Labor would have won government with a majority 86 seats (up 2 seats since February poll) to the Coalition's 59 seats (down 4 seats since February poll) in the House of Representatives.

On the basis of these predictions voting in the NSW North Coast electorate of Page held by Nationals MP Kevin Hogan may go down to the wire.

Even the sports betting is favouring Labor over the Coalition.

Meanwhile in New South Wales just 12 days out from a the March 2019 state election and  The Guardian is reporting that that:

A new poll indicates Labor leads the coalition 51% to 49% on a two-party preferred basis with Daley ahead of Berejiklian as preferred premier.

The UComms/ReachTel poll, published in the Sun-Herald, also shows the Coalition’s primary vote has dropped to 28.7% while Labor’s remains steady at 34.1%.

While a YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph shows the NSW Nationals are on the cusp of losing Barwon and Lismore and are also facing battles in the National­ seats of Upper Hunter, Tweed, Murray and Coffs Harbour, and Liberal-held Coogee, East Hills, Penrith and Goulburn.

It is being said that the loss of six of those ten seats would result in a post-election Berejiklian Government being a minority government. The last minority NSW government was voted in from 1991-1995. It was a Coalition Government supported by Independents,

Happy 49th to our local member, Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan

Happy 49th Newspoll, Kevin John Hogan. 

That's forty-nine published Newspoll surveys in a row in which the Coaltion has failed to pull ahead of Labor on a Two-Party Preferred (TPP) basis.

The last time the federal government - of which you have been a member since September 2013 under prime ministers Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison - has been ahead of Labor was on 27 June 2016.

That lasted a full thirty-five five days because by 30 August the gloss had worn off that July federal election win and you could only reach TPP 50 points in the August 2016 Newspoll.

In late September of that year the Coalition lost even that small comfort as Labor began to out poll the Turnbull Government and then the Morrison Government.

If you are wondering why this is happening the answer is easy to find. Turn a few pages of Hansard.

Every government backbencher, yourself included, votes on the floor of Parliament not in the interests of their electorate or that of the nation but in support of the hard-right ideology which dominates the Coalition Cabinet to the exclusion of even basic commonsense.

You have nobody to blame but yourselves.

So enjoy your 49th Kevin because your 50th is likely to be close on its heels.

*Image from Greeting Card Universe

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Newspoll survey of 1,582 respondents on 21-24 February 2019 was released on Monday 25 February:

Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals 37 per cent (unchanged), The Greens 9 per cent, One Nation 5 per cent.

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 53 per cent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 47 per cent (unchanged)

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -6 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -18 points.

If a federal election had been held on 24 February 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016 then Labor would have won government with a majority 82 seats to the Coalition's 63 seats in the House of Representatives.

Guess that big empty bus and other faux election campaign antics weren’t as effective as Scott Morrison had hoped

Channel 9 News, 16 February 2019:

The Morrison Government is losing support in Queensland in the latest spell of bad news for the Prime Minister.

The latest YouGov Galaxy poll shows that the Prime Minister has lost crucial support in the Sunshine State, often seen as a key election battleground….

The slump comes despite Mr Morrison visiting farmers devastated by the recent floods, promising to rebuild the cattle industry…..

There are only four more sitting days remain until the budget is handed down, and just seven more until the most likely date when the election will be called.

Galaxy poll published 16 February 2019:

Queensland Primary Vote – L/NP 35 (-2) to ALP 34 (unchanged)

Queensland Two-PartyPreferred (TPP) – L/NP 48% (-2) to ALP 52% (+2)

What the Australian Parliament might look like after May 2019

The second Newspoll survey of the year polling 1,567 voters was conducted from 7 February to 10 February 2019.

The results were:

Primary vote – Labor 39 per cent (up 1 point) to Coalition 37 per cent (unchanged).

Two-party preferred vote – Labor 53 (unchanged) to Coalition 47 per cent (unchanged).

The two-party preferred result represents a 31 month long losing streak for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition to date.

If a federal election had been held on 10 February 2019 the swing to Labor would have been 2.5 percent.

This would have given Labor 82 seats in the House of Representatives to the Coalition’s 63 seats (Liberal 38, LNP 16, Nationals 9).

Based on these percentages then at the May 2019 federal election Labor MP for Ballina Justine Elliot will comfortably retain the seat she has held since 2004, Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan will likely lose the seat he has held since September 2013, it is uncertain if the Cowper electorate will vote in a Nationals candidate, Nationals MPs David Gillespie and Barnaby Joyce will probably retain their seats which both have held since 2013.

These percentages would also see the current Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, Minister for Health Greg Hunt, Minister for Human Services Alan Tudge and Minister for Agriculture and Water Resources David Littleproud probably retaining their seats but as members of the Opposition benches. With Attorney-General Christian Porter fighting to keep his seat on those same benches and Minister for Home Affairs Peter Dutton losing the seat of Dickson which he has held since 2001.

It would seem that most destructive and disruptive Liberal MP for Warringah Tony Abbott is also likely to retain his seat.

The overall makeup of the House of Representatives will possibly look like this:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll

First Newspoll of 2019 doesn't end Morrison Government's losing streak

SBS News, 29 January 2018:

The coalition's primary vote has risen in the first Newspoll of 2019, but Labor remains in front.

Support for Scott Morrison's government increased by two points, according the poll published by The Australian on Monday night.

The Newspoll shows Labor ahead in the two-party preferred vote 53-47.

The poll was conducted between January 24-27 and based on a survey of 1634 voters across Australia.

Graphics on Twitter, 29 January 2019

Scott Morrison remains preferred prime minister at 43 to Shorten’s 36 per cent in this latest Newspoll.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

That represents a 30 month long losing streak for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition to date.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll

While the Coalition's easy dominance of the Newspoll Primary Vote had ended within five months of the last federal election and disappeared completely by 26 August 2018.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll

Like Turnbull before him, Scott Morrison fails to connect with voters

According to Newspoll it is Australia’s leading public opinion polling company . Established in 1985, we have Australia’s best track record having estimated the outcomes of every state and federal election since our company was founded. 

In its national opinion poll released on 11 November 2018 Federal Primary Votes came in at:

Liberal-National Party 35 (-1)

Australian Labor Party 40 (+1)

Australian Greens 9 (0)

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 6 (0)

These results gave this Two-Party Preferred Voting breakdown (based on 2016 federal election preference flows):

The Australian, Twitter, 11 November 2018

AAP General Newswire, 11 November 2018:

Bill Shorten has narrowed the gap to Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister as Labor extends its lead over the coalition in the latest Newspoll.

The coalition government has slipped further behind Labor in the latest Newspoll as Bill Shorten narrowed the gap to Scott Morrison as the nation's preferred leader.

The Liberal-National coalition now trail Labor by 10 points after slipping to 45-55 on a two-party preferred basis, according to the Newspoll published in The Australian on Sunday night.

The coalition’s primary vote fell by a point to 35 per cent - two points higher than the record low of 33 per cent.

Labor's primary vote, according to the national poll of 1802 voters, sits at 40 per cent - only the third time it has hit such a mark in almost four years.

The coalition has been behind on the primary vote since the leadership change in August.

Mr Morrison's latest effort to win back votes - his bus and plane tour of Queensland - appeared to not work with voters with his net approval rating sinking another five points to minus eight.....

Australia 2018: It's not looking good for the Morrison Government

News.com.au, 23 October 2018:

IT’S not looking good for the Coalition.

New polling analysis has revealed the Morrison Government is facing an election wipe-out, with a drop in support across every mainland state and every voter demographic since Scott Morrison replaced Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister in August.

Analysis of four Newspolls since the August 24 leadership coup, published by The Australian this morning, reveals a potential loss of up to 25 seats across Australia based on two-party preferred swings since the 2016 election, with eight held by current frontbenchers.

It comes after a shocking 19 per cent swing against the Liberal Party at the Wentworth by-election on Saturday.

Swings against the Morrison Government of up to 5% in Queensland and 7% in South Australia are tipped.

While on the NSW North Coast pundits are suggesting that Nationals MP Kevin Hogan will have to fight hard to keep the Page federal electorate and that Nationals-held Cowper is also up for grabs.

Kevin Hogan is still mired in that ridiculous charade where he declared himself as an independent MP sitting on the cross bench in August 2018.

Despite the fact that:

a) he is still a member of the National Party of Australia;

b) remains the Deputy National Party Whip in the House of Representatives;

c) remains Deputy Speaker in the House of Representatives;

d) was preselected by the National Party as its candidate in Page for the forthcoming federal election; and

e) has always voted at the direction of the National Party both before and after his spurious move to the cross bench.

According to Hogan himself; “I’m still a Nats MP – I still advocate and lobby for our community through the normal channels”.