Religious belief is rated the least important attribute that defines Australians' sense of who they are

Australia Talks is an Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC) project that was created in collaboration with Vox Pop Labs's data scientists and social scientists. A panel of local academics also guided its creation and the University of Melbourne is an academic partner.

What stands out clearly in this online survey is that personal political belief is what principally drives a sense of identity for the majority of Australians who participated over nine days in July 2019.

The importance of political belief was closely followed by nationality.

Gender (with a marked difference between male & female scoring) and language were ranked third and fourth in order of importance to a sense of self.

Religion came in at a solid last with only 0.192 of a point difference between how males and females scored its low importance with regard to their own identity.
According to ABC News on 6 November 2019; Religious leaders were distrusted by a full 70 per cent of the population, with 35 per cent saying they did not trust them "at all" and Only 15 per cent of respondents thought the country would be better off if more people were religious.

While 60 per cent of the July 2019 respondents; would prefer that people keep their religious views to themselves.

The 29 April 2019 published results of a Vox Pop Labs Vote Compass survey revealed that Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison only scored 3.45 out of 10 when it came to "trustworthiness".

Given this former advertising executive increasingly publicly positions himself as a religious political leader and is quite vocal concerning his Pentecostal faith, one wonders if there is now a class of person who actually ranks lower in the general public's esteem than politicians, pollsters and advertising executives did in the September 2019 IPSOS survey 

Australian PM Scott 'Liar from the Shire' Morrison caught manipulating and misleading the electorate yet again - this time over the cashless welfare card

"In these trials, we have seen 48% of drug takers using fewer drugs, 41% of drinkers drinking less, and 48% of gamblers gambling less." [Liberal Party of Australia, Our Plan, April 2019]

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the Liberal Party are living up to their reputations as a politician and party who rarely speak the truth.

One social media user called Morrison out over his misuse of statistics, as he pushes forward with his plan to control and penalise all wefare recipients by restricting access to Centrelink cash transfer payments (pensions, benefits, allowances etc) by placing these payments on the Indue Limited Cashless Debit Card.

Turns out that hidden in his misuse of statistics is the fact that of those Ceduna and Kununurra cashless debit card trial participants surveyed in 2017 only est. 8 people self-reported a reduction in the use of alcohol.

[https://twitter.com/AusGovSlave/status/1173505356317655041]

The 2017 final trial evaluation report itself notes that there was a risk that participants may only have reported lower alcohol consumption, illicit drug use or gambling because they believed that: a) to claim a reduction in use was the more socially acceptable answer; and/or b) this is what the questioner wanted to hear.

It noted that some existing data sets relied on were for broader areas than the trial sites and could not be reliably narrowed to those sites and, that there was no adequate time series data available to perform robust preTrial and post-Trial comparisons.

The final report also notes that survey did not necessarily gain a statistically representative random sample of the underlying population due to unequal selection probabilities.

Vast majority of Australians (84%) support new laws to ban political parties and candidates from making “inaccurate and misleading” claims

The Guardian, 18 August 2019: 

The vast majority of Australians (84%) support new laws to ban political parties and candidates from making “inaccurate and misleading” claims, according to a new poll for the Australia Institute. 

On Sunday the progressive thinktank released a discussion paper canvassing options for truth in political advertising laws, following reports of widespread misinformation in the 2019 election campaign and calls from MPs including independent Zali Steggall and Liberal Jason Falinski for new minimum standards. 

The paper noted that truth in advertising laws operate in South Australia, where the Electoral Commission can request material be withdrawn and retracted and financial penalties apply, and New Zealand, where the media industry is self-regulated by an advertising standards body. 

It argues that industry bodies including Free TV Australia and the Advertising Standards Bureau could regulate truth in advertising, preventing the Australian Electoral Commission from being drawn into the contentious political process of adjudication. 

“Several models for increasing the truthfulness of election campaigns are available to policymakers,” it said. “They are popular and proven to work in other jurisdictions.” 

The paper includes results from a Dynata survey of 1,464 people conducted in the last week of July, with a margin of error of 3%, that found 84% of all voters want truth in advertising laws, with support in Labor, the Coalition and Greens all above the 84% level. 

Most respondents supported a range of penalties including fines (62%), forcing publications to retract claims (60%) and loss of public funding (54%). Criminal charges were supported by 42% of respondents. 

Respondents were unsure who should be the arbiter of truth, with support split between the judicial system (27%), electoral commissions (26%) and industry bodies (21%), with 15% unsure and 7% suggesting a new panel of experts. 

The survey also found 90% support for the proposition that newspapers, TV channels and social media networks should run corrections if they publish inaccurate or misleading ads.....

Galaxy Poll showed 2 out of 3 people believe religious organisations and individuals should not be allowed to discriminate against those who don’t hold the same views

Parents and Friends of Lesbians and Gays (PFLAG), Media Release 13 August 2019: 

 Religious Discrimination – What Australia Really Thinks 

The results of a Galaxy Poll, commissioned by Parents and Friends of Lesbians and Gays (PFLAG+) have been released today. 

Mr Morrison needs to consider the opinion of the “Quiet Australians” before he forges ahead with a Religious Discrimination Act, Commission or Commissioner. 

The issues of religious freedom for some are in reality discrimination for others. 

Very few are against religious freedom. But as the Poll shows many are against discrimination. Additionally, Christians in Australia are not persecuted but the legislation is being put in place just as a precaution because marriage equality became a reality in this country in 2017. 

Of those who were polled 51% identified as being religious and 49% identified as having no religion. 

The Poll shows 63% do not agree that the religious organisations should have the right to discriminate against LGBTIQ people. The same percentage applied when asked if religious organisations should have the right to discriminate against unmarried mothers, divorcees and couples in de facto relationships. (33% identified as Christian)

The Poll also showed that 62% believe religious organisations and individuals should not be discriminated against just because of their faith. 

Additionally, the Poll showed that 68% (2 out of 3) people believe, religious organisations and individuals should not be allowed to discriminate against those who don’t hold the same views. 

The Poll showed that 48% Christians do not agree with discrimination of LGBTIQ people and others who do not comply with the religious organisations ethos, while 13% do agree with discrimination.

Ends

So is there an army of "Quiet Australians" backing the Morrison Coalition Government or is it just another political myth

The Morrison Coalition Government, its ministers, senators and MPs, have been making much of the notion that there is a large mass of citizens who quietly agree with them on every subject they discuss and every policy position they hold. 

This survey suggests that rather than there being a large number of head nodders in the community, these so-called 'quiet' Australians may broadly disagree with the Morrison Government on issues involving treatment of vulnerable people and low income households - especially when it comes to the Newstart Allowance level of payment. 

Essential Report, Australian survey, 8 August 2019 by clarencegirl on Scribd

  http://www.scribd.com/document/421336946/Essential-Report-Australian-survey-8-August-2019

Clarence Valley NSW has recorded its highest tourist numbers ever

Clarence Valley Council, media release, 9 July 2019: 

Record tourism numbers in the Clarence 

THE Clarence Valley has recorded its highest tourist numbers in history, with an estimated 1.3 million visitors coming to the region during 2018. 

Tourism Research Australia figures show a 22% increase in international, domestic and day visitors from 2017 to 2018, continuing an impressive increase over the past three years. 

Clarence Valley Council destination management officer, Lou Gumb, said the word was getting out that the Clarence Valley region boasted some of the finest scenery, adventure and nature-based experiences that Australia had to offer. 

“The Clarence Valley offers a diverse array of quality and unique offerings,” she said. 

Key Clarence Valley tourism results for 2018 are: 

 Domestically, we welcomed 680,000 overnight visitors who stayed 2,355,037 nights. 

 Internationally, the Clarence Valley received 27,000 visitors who stayed 157,830 nights. 

 Day visitors to the Clarence Valley totalled 600,000. Council’s economic development manager, Elizabeth Fairweather, said Tourism Research Australia’s figures showed a big turn around after a steady decline in tourism numbers over the past 10 years. 

“We hit the lowest point in 2014 when 857,000 visitors were recorded as coming to the area,” she said.  

“But here we are at the end of 2018 with a whopping 52 per cent increase on this in a relatively short space of time. 

“The graph line is now on a fast incline but this hasn’t happened by accident. We’ve worked incredibly hard to create awareness of the Clarence Valley, support the local industry, encourage nature-based sporting events and overall enhance the region’s nature-based experiences, targeting active families.” 

Ms Gumb said there had been a multifaceted approach that included working with the local tourism industry, government bodies including Destination NSW and Tourism Australia, National Parks and Wildlife Service, Crown Lands and the Forestry Corporation. 

“We are working to attract visitors and to create an atmosphere that encourages people to stay longer, spend more and return year after year because they have had such a wonderful time in our very special part of the world,” she said.  

“You only have to look at our @myclarencevalley on social media to see how many people have already fallen in love with the area and can’t wait to come back. Even those who have not yet visited the Clarence Valley are fast realising the Clarence Valley should be on their to-do list.” 

Mayor Jim Simmons said the impressive numbers were charging the region’s economy, generating jobs and driving investment in local communities as tourists chose to visit the Clarence Valley. 

“The results speak to the broad appeal of the Clarence Valley region,” he said. 

“We really do have something for everyone, with our renowned Clarence canoe and kayak trail, Grafton Jacaranda season, Yuraygir coastal walk, tourist towns including Yamba, Iluka, Brooms Head, Wooli and Ulmarra.  

“Visitors are coming for our beaches and rivers, bush adventures, laid-back lifestyle, world-class food, events and just to kick back and relax if that’s all they want to do.” 

Want to know more about visiting the Clarence Valley? Head to www.myclarencevalley.com 

Release ends

Only 5 more sleeps until federal polling day across Australia & Newspoll still predicts that the Morrison Coalition will lose government

This is the 54th consecutive Newspoll in which Labor leads on a Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis.

The last time the Coalition scored a higher TPP than Labor was on election day in 2016.

Primary Vote - Coalition 39 (up 1 point) Labor 37 (up 1 point)

Two Party Preferred (TPP) Vote - Coalition 49 (unchanged) Labor 51(unchanged)

Voter Net Satisfaction with Leaders - Scott Morrison 0 (up 1 point)  Bill  Shorten -10 (up 8 points)

Newspoll results 11-12 May 2019, published 13 May 2019

If an election was held today then Labor would form government with 77 House of Representatives seats to the Coalition's 68 seats.

Both Pauline Hanson's One Nation and Clive Palmer's United Australia Party would have 0 seats in the Lower House.

Based on preference flows at the June 2016 federal election Antony Green predicts that Labor will gain the electorates of Robertson (NSW), Gilmore (NSW), Flynn (Qld), Ford (Qld) and Capricornia (Qld).

All five of these electorates were held by either the Liberal Party or Liberal-National Party at the 2016 election.

Previous Newspolls

Thirteen days out from the 2019 Australian federal election and the polls look like this

Newspoll, published 5 May 2019

Primary Vote – Coalition 38 (unchanged) Labor 36 (down 1 point)

Voter Net Satisfaction with Leaders – Morrison -1 (unchanged) Shorten -18 (down 6 points)

This is the 54th consecutive Newspoll in which Labor leads on a Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis.

The last time the Coaltion scored a higher TPP than Labor was on election day in 2016.

Between the 19 June 2017 and the 5 May 2019 Newspoll the Coalition only bested Labor on a Primary Vote basis 11 times out of a total of 42 polls. Only 3 of those higher primary vote scores occurred after Scott Morrison ousted Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister.

Past Newspoll results.

IPSOS poll, published 5 May 2019

13 reasons why voting for Liberal or Nationals candidates on 18 May 2019 may not be the best choice you could make

The McKell Institute, April 2019, Fork in the Road: The impact of the two major parties’ penalty rate policies in the 2019 Federal Election:

Key National Findings

Finding 1: Throughout the three year period of the forthcoming 46th parliament, workers will collectively receive $2.87 billion less in penalty rate pay under a re-elected Coalition Government than a Labor Government, when factoring in each party’s policy preferences.

Finding 2: Nationally, workers in the fast food industry are expected to receive $303.8 million less in penalty rate pay under a re-elected Coalition Government than under a Labor Government over the life of the forthcoming parliament.

Finding 3: Nationally, workers in the hospitality industry are expected to receive $837.15 million less in penalty rate pay under a re-elected Coalition Government than under a Labor Government over the life of the forthcoming parliament.

Finding 4: Nationally, workers in the retail industry are expected to receive $1.64 billion less in penalty rate pay under a re-elected Coalition Government than under a Labor Government over the life of the forthcoming parliament.

Finding 5: Nationally, workers in the pharmacy industry are expected to receive $84.86 million less in penalty rate pay under a re-elected Coalition Government than under a Labor Government over the life of the forthcoming parliament.

Finding 6: Over the life of the forthcoming parliament, workers in Queensland are collectively expected to receive $573.7 million less in penalty rate pay under a re-elected Coalition Government’s than under a Labor Government.

Finding 7: Over the life of the forthcoming parliament, workers in New South Wales are expected to receive $899.26 million less in penalty rate pay under a re-elected Coalition Government than under a Labor Government.

Finding 8: Over the life of the forthcoming parliament, workers in the ACT are expected to receive $45.69 million less in penalty rate pay under a re-elected Coalition Government than under a Labor Government.

Finding 9: Over the life of the forthcoming parliament, workers in Victoria are expected to receive $750.74 million less in penalty rate pay under a re-elected Coalition Government than under a Labor Government.

Finding 10: Over the life of the forthcoming parliament, workers in Tasmania are expected to receive $65.02 million less in penalty rate pay under a re-elected Coalition Government than under a Labor Government.

Finding 11: Over the life of the forthcoming parliament, workers in South Australia are expected to receive $209.65 million less in penalty rate pay under a re-elected Coalition Government than under a Labor Government.

Finding 12: Over the life of the forthcoming parliament, workers in Western Australia are expected to receive $299.52 million less in penalty rate pay under a re-elected Coalition Government than under a Labor Government.

Finding 13: Over the life of the forthcoming parliament, workers in Northern Territory are expected to receive $23.56 million less in penalty rate pay under a re-elected Coalition Government than under a Labor Government.

Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and Newspoll results tighten

Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and the losing streak is not yet over for the Morrison Government.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

Which means the losing streak has now stretched to just under 34 months.

53rd Newpoll results – published 29 April 2019:

Primary Vote – Labor 37 percent (down 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 38 per cent (down 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 4 per cent (unchanged).

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 51 per cent (down 1 point) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 49 per cent (up 1 point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -1 point (down 1 point) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -12 points (up 2 points).

If a federal election had been held on 29 April 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a majority 77 seats (down 5 seats since 16 April poll ) to the Coalition's 68 seats (up 5 seats since 16 April poll) in the House of Representatives.

According to Antony Green's Swing Calculator the 27-28 April 2019 Newspoll results will see the Nationals retain the Page and Cowper electorates and Labor retain the Richmond electorate.

In other words the status quo is predicted to remain for another three years – the Nationals having held Page since 2013 and Cowper since 2001. Labor has held Richmond since 2004.

No matter how had they dance and prance Scott Morrison & Co just can't turn Newspoll around

Only 32 days out from the 2019 federal election and the losing streak is not yet over for the Morrison Government.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

Which means the losing streak has now stretched to a little over 33 months.

52nd Newpoll results – published 15 April 2019:

Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (up 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 39 per cent (up 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 4 per cent (down 2 points).

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 52 per cent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 48 per cent (up 1 point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison 1 point (down 1 point) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -14 points (unchanged).

If a federal election had been held on14 April 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a majority 82 seats (unchanged since 7 April poll ) to the Coalition's 63 seats (unchanged since 7 April poll) in the House of Representatives.

According to Antony Green's Swing Calculator the 11-14 April 2019 Newspoll results will see Labor gain the Page electorate and retain the Richmond electorate, with Cowper electorate being retained by the Nationals.

51st losing Newspoll in a row for Australian Liberal-Nationals Coalition Government

The losing streak is not yet over for the Morrison Government.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

Which means the losing streak has now stretched to 33 months.

51st Newpoll results – 7 April 2019:

Primary Vote – Labor 37 percent (down 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 38 per cent (up 2 points), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 6 per cent (down 1 point).

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 52 per cent (down 1 point) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 47 per cent (up 1 point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison 2 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -14 points.

If a federal election had been held on 7 April 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a majority 82 seats (down 2 seats since March poll) to the Coalition's 63 seats (up 4 seats since March poll) in the House of Representatives.

Sportsbet is taking bets on voting outcomes in individual federal electorates.

In Page the current odds are Labor $1.64 Coalition $2.05 Greens $31.00, in Richmond Labor $1.05 Coalition $7.50 Greens $31.00, and in Cowper Independent $1.72 Coalition $1.93 Labor $21.00 Greens $51.00.

UPDATE

According to Antony Green’s Swing Calculator Newspoll results for 4-7 April 2019 mean that the electorates of Page and Richmond will both have Labor MPs while Cowper will have a Nationals MP after the May federal election.

The IPSOS poll of 3-5 April 2019 produces the same results.

State of Play 11 March 2019: as both Australian federal election and New South Wales state election grow near

A Newspoll survey of 1,610 Australian voted was conducted between Thursday 7 March and Sunday 10 March 2019.

The Federal Liberal-Nationals Coalition Government suffered its 50th consecutive loss on a Two-Party Preferred (TPP) basis since June 2016 in this latest Newspoll.

50th Newpoll results:

Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals 36 per cent (down 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent, One Nation 7 per cent.

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 53 per cent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 46 per cent (down 1point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -2 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -15 points.

If a federal election had been held on 10 March 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016 then Labor would have won government with a majority 86 seats (up 2 seats since February poll) to the Coalition's 59 seats (down 4 seats since February poll) in the House of Representatives.

On the basis of these predictions voting in the NSW North Coast electorate of Page held by Nationals MP Kevin Hogan may go down to the wire.

Even the sports betting is favouring Labor over the Coalition.

Meanwhile in New South Wales just 12 days out from a the March 2019 state election and  The Guardian is reporting that that:

A new poll indicates Labor leads the coalition 51% to 49% on a two-party preferred basis with Daley ahead of Berejiklian as preferred premier.

The UComms/ReachTel poll, published in the Sun-Herald, also shows the Coalition’s primary vote has dropped to 28.7% while Labor’s remains steady at 34.1%.

While a YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph shows the NSW Nationals are on the cusp of losing Barwon and Lismore and are also facing battles in the National­ seats of Upper Hunter, Tweed, Murray and Coffs Harbour, and Liberal-held Coogee, East Hills, Penrith and Goulburn.

It is being said that the loss of six of those ten seats would result in a post-election Berejiklian Government being a minority government. The last minority NSW government was voted in from 1991-1995. It was a Coalition Government supported by Independents,

Happy 49th to our local member, Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan

Happy 49th Newspoll, Kevin John Hogan. 

That's forty-nine published Newspoll surveys in a row in which the Coaltion has failed to pull ahead of Labor on a Two-Party Preferred (TPP) basis.

The last time the federal government - of which you have been a member since September 2013 under prime ministers Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison - has been ahead of Labor was on 27 June 2016.

That lasted a full thirty-five five days because by 30 August the gloss had worn off that July federal election win and you could only reach TPP 50 points in the August 2016 Newspoll.

In late September of that year the Coalition lost even that small comfort as Labor began to out poll the Turnbull Government and then the Morrison Government.

If you are wondering why this is happening the answer is easy to find. Turn a few pages of Hansard.

Every government backbencher, yourself included, votes on the floor of Parliament not in the interests of their electorate or that of the nation but in support of the hard-right ideology which dominates the Coalition Cabinet to the exclusion of even basic commonsense.

You have nobody to blame but yourselves.

So enjoy your 49th Kevin because your 50th is likely to be close on its heels.

*Image from Greeting Card Universe

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Newspoll survey of 1,582 respondents on 21-24 February 2019 was released on Monday 25 February:

Primary Vote – Labor 39 percent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals 37 per cent (unchanged), The Greens 9 per cent, One Nation 5 per cent.

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 53 per cent (unchanged) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 47 per cent (unchanged)

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -6 points and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -18 points.

If a federal election had been held on 24 February 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016 then Labor would have won government with a majority 82 seats to the Coalition's 63 seats in the House of Representatives.

Guess that big empty bus and other faux election campaign antics weren’t as effective as Scott Morrison had hoped

Channel 9 News, 16 February 2019:

The Morrison Government is losing support in Queensland in the latest spell of bad news for the Prime Minister.

The latest YouGov Galaxy poll shows that the Prime Minister has lost crucial support in the Sunshine State, often seen as a key election battleground….

The slump comes despite Mr Morrison visiting farmers devastated by the recent floods, promising to rebuild the cattle industry…..

There are only four more sitting days remain until the budget is handed down, and just seven more until the most likely date when the election will be called.

Galaxy poll published 16 February 2019:

Queensland Primary Vote – L/NP 35 (-2) to ALP 34 (unchanged)

Queensland Two-PartyPreferred (TPP) – L/NP 48% (-2) to ALP 52% (+2)

What the Australian Parliament might look like after May 2019

The second Newspoll survey of the year polling 1,567 voters was conducted from 7 February to 10 February 2019.

The results were:

Primary vote – Labor 39 per cent (up 1 point) to Coalition 37 per cent (unchanged).

Two-party preferred vote – Labor 53 (unchanged) to Coalition 47 per cent (unchanged).

The two-party preferred result represents a 31 month long losing streak for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition to date.

If a federal election had been held on 10 February 2019 the swing to Labor would have been 2.5 percent.

This would have given Labor 82 seats in the House of Representatives to the Coalition’s 63 seats (Liberal 38, LNP 16, Nationals 9).

Based on these percentages then at the May 2019 federal election Labor MP for Ballina Justine Elliot will comfortably retain the seat she has held since 2004, Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan will likely lose the seat he has held since September 2013, it is uncertain if the Cowper electorate will vote in a Nationals candidate, Nationals MPs David Gillespie and Barnaby Joyce will probably retain their seats which both have held since 2013.

These percentages would also see the current Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, Minister for Health Greg Hunt, Minister for Human Services Alan Tudge and Minister for Agriculture and Water Resources David Littleproud probably retaining their seats but as members of the Opposition benches. With Attorney-General Christian Porter fighting to keep his seat on those same benches and Minister for Home Affairs Peter Dutton losing the seat of Dickson which he has held since 2001.

It would seem that most destructive and disruptive Liberal MP for Warringah Tony Abbott is also likely to retain his seat.

The overall makeup of the House of Representatives will possibly look like this:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll

First Newspoll of 2019 doesn't end Morrison Government's losing streak

SBS News, 29 January 2018:

The coalition's primary vote has risen in the first Newspoll of 2019, but Labor remains in front.

Support for Scott Morrison's government increased by two points, according the poll published by The Australian on Monday night.

The Newspoll shows Labor ahead in the two-party preferred vote 53-47.

The poll was conducted between January 24-27 and based on a survey of 1634 voters across Australia.

Graphics on Twitter, 29 January 2019

Scott Morrison remains preferred prime minister at 43 to Shorten’s 36 per cent in this latest Newspoll.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

That represents a 30 month long losing streak for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition to date.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll

While the Coalition's easy dominance of the Newspoll Primary Vote had ended within five months of the last federal election and disappeared completely by 26 August 2018.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll