Twice the numbers of Australian residents than previously reported - est. 3.90 million people - contracted SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 between the beginning of December 2021 and end of February 2022

 

An estimated 3,905,966 Australian residents contracted SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 (probably the Omicron or Omicron sub-variants) between the beginning of December 2021 and end of February 2022.

That is 3.9 million people infected in a three month period.

According to NCIRS - Australian COVID-19 Serosurveillance Network:

"Prevalence of anti-nucleocapsid antibodies was 17.0% (16.0–18.0) overall. Seroprevalence was highest in Queensland (25.8%; 23.3–28.5), followed by Victoria (22.6%; 20.1–25.2) and NSW (21.4%; 19.1–23.9). Seroprevalence was lowest, at 0.5% (0.2–1.2) in WA (Figure 4A). No differences in seroprevalence across jurisdictions were observed following age adjustment compared with unadjusted seroprevalence..."  [my yellow highlighting]

On the last day of February 2022 there were still 204,973 confirmed active COVID-19 cases across Australia and the daily number of confirmed active cases steadily grew during March before peaking at 483,680 cases as the month ended.

On 3 April national confirmed active Covid-19 daily cases reached 502,377 before slowly falling to remain stubbornly well above 400,000 until mid-April when cases number began to fall again.

On 1 May 2022 Australia had 326,554 confirmed active COVID-19 cases, by 16 May 385,923 & by 31 May 278,717.

As of 4pm on Monday, 20 June 2022, Australia-wide there were est. 211,622 active cases of COVID-19 recorded by the Australian Government Dept. Of Health.

All these March to June 2022 figures are considered to also be a significant under reporting of actual infection numbers in the general population.

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Media release, 20 June 2022:

National antibody study confirms COVID-19 cases higher than reported

• At least 17% of Australian adults are estimated to have recently had COVID-19 at the end of February 2022.

• Adults aged 18–29 years had the highest proportion of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

• Queensland had the highest antibody positivity rate, while Western Australia had the lowest.

• The next blood donor survey and a paediatric serosurvey have commenced and will provide an updated snapshot to mid-June 2022.

It is estimated that at the end of February 2022 at least 17% of the Australian adult population had recently been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, according to results released today from Australia’s most recent serosurvey of antibodies to the virus in blood donors. The vast majority of these infections are believed to have occurred during the Omicron wave that began in December 2021. Based on survey results, the proportion of people infected was at least twice as high as indicated by cases reported to authorities at the end of February 2022. [my yellow highlighting]

The serosurvey was conducted by the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS) and the Kirby Institute at UNSW Sydney, in collaboration with Australian Red Cross Lifeblood, Royal Melbourne Hospital’s Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory at the Doherty Institute and other research partners.

The highest proportion of adults with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 was in Queensland (26%), followed by Victoria (23%) and New South Wales (21%), while Western Australia had the lowest (0.5%).

The serosurvey method detects higher proportions of infection than routine surveillance based on cases diagnosed and reported at the time of infection, which misses people who didn’t present for a test or whose positive test result was not reported to authorities.

The national antibody survey was conducted in late February to early March 2022, approximately 6 weeks after the peak of the Omicron wave in New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory, Queensland and Victoria and prior to substantial transmission in Western Australia.

“The general pattern of antibody positivity in blood donors was consistent with the pattern in reported cases to the end of February 2022: New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland having had big outbreaks, and Western Australia having very limited community transmission,” says Dr Dorothy Machalek, lead investigator on the project from the Kirby Institute. “Similarly, young blood donors had the highest rate of infection, matching higher reported case numbers in this age group.”

Researchers examined 5,185 de-identified samples from Australian blood donors aged 18–89 years for evidence of COVID-19–related antibodies. Two types of antibody to SAR-CoV-2 were tested: antibody to the nucleocapsid protein, which provides an indication of past infection, and antibody to the spike protein, which can indicate past infection and/or vaccination.

Evidence of past infection was highest among donors aged 18–29 years at 27.2%, declining with increasing age to 6.4% in donors aged 70–89 years across Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. In Western Australia, evidence of recent infection was extremely low across all age groups. Nationally, the proportion of the population with antibodies to the spike protein was far higher, at around 98%.

“As expected a very high proportion of the blood donors had antibodies to the spike protein of the COVID-19 virus, with little variation by age group and sex. This was likely due to high vaccination rates among blood donors, as well as in the wider population,” says Professor Kristine Macartney, Director of NCIRS and Professor at The University of Sydney.

“Future rounds of the blood donor serosurvey will allow us to understand how many infections occur throughout 2022,” Professor Macartney said. “We are also conducting a second national paediatric serosurvey that started collection in June and this will give us better insights into transmission in children and teenagers.”

The ongoing blood donor survey, co-led by the Kirby Institute and NCIRS in collaboration with Australian Red Cross Lifeblood, also involves investigators at the Royal Melbourne Hospital’s Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory at the Doherty Institute, NSW Health Pathology ICPMR, The University of Sydney and Murdoch Children’s Research Institute.

The residual blood donation samples used in the survey were obtained from Lifeblood’s processing centres across the country and delinked from any identifying information apart from age, sex and post code. Individual results can therefore not be provided back to blood donors.

“Australian Red Cross Lifeblood encourages anyone wanting to contribute to this type of research to become a regular donor. There are many benefits to donating, including finding out your blood type,” says Professor David Irving, Director of Research and Development at Australian Red Cross Lifeblood.

The next round of the Lifeblood donor survey has commenced from mid-June. This time point will estimate SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence following the spread of the Omicron BA.2 and other subvariants. Data are provided to all states, territories and the Commonwealth Government under the Australian National Disease Surveillance Plan for COVID-19.

Read the full report here

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Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies among Australian blood donors, February–March 2022, The Australian COVID-19 Serosurveillance Network, Final report, 3 June 2022, p. 7. Click on image to enlarge

SOURCES

• Dept. Of Health, Coronavirus (COVID-19) at a glance infographic collection

A collection of infographics providing a quick view of the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation in Australia since 5 April 2020.

• Dept. Of Health, Coronavirus (COVID-19) case numbers and statistics

• National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance

Under reporting of COVID-19 cases in New South Wales is now a sick joke being played on the population

As of 4pm on Friday, 17 June 2022, Australia-wide there were est. 208,173 active cases of COVID-19 recorded by the Australian Government Dept. Of Health.

Of these, 30,302 confirmed cases had been reported in the prior 24 hours.

A total of 2,817 cases were currently hospitalised on 17 June, with 93 in intensive care units and of these 30 people requiring ventilation.

In the 24 hours to 4pm on 17 June 51 people had died as a result of contracting COVID19. As government agencies do not update on weekends it is noted that covidlive.com.au reported a further 64 deaths on Saturday 18 June.

In New South Wales up 4pm on Friday 14 June 2022 there were 85,386 active cases of COVID-19 and in the 24 hours up to 4pm 17 June there were 8,119 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases.

A total of 1,344 cases were currently hospitalised on 17 June, with 45 in intensive care units and of these 18 requiring ventilation.

In the 24 hours to 4pm on Friday, 17 June 25 people had died as a result of contracting COVID-19.

Since the SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19 pandemic first entered Australia and NSW in late January 2020, NSW Health has recorded a total 2,704,725 confirmed cases of COVID-19 – a conservative figure given the ongoing under reporting of infection numbers – and 3,387 deaths.

The seven local government areas in the NSW Northern Rivers region recorded the following newly confirmed COVID-19 case numbers as at 4pm on Friday, 17 June 2022:

Tweed Shire – details not available

Ballina Shire – details not available

Byron Shire – details not available

Lismore City – details not available

Richmond Valley – details not available

Clarence Valley – details not available

Kyogle Shire – details not available

TOTAL 242 cases – 77 confirmed as positive by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests & 165 confirmed positive by Rapid Antigen Tests (RATs).

In the four weeks to 17 June 2022 the seven local government areas in the NSW Northern Rivers region recorded the following number of confirmed COVID-19 cases:

Tweed Shire – 443 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Ballina Shire – 250 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Byron Shire – 104 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Lismore City – 167 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Richmond Valley – 126 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Clarence Valley – 123 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Kyogle Shire – 16 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count.

TOTAL 1,229 cases – this figure includes only cases confirmed as positive by PCR tests and deliberately excludes all positive RAT testing.

Note: Under reporting of COVID-19 infection in the Northern Rivers region over the four week period ending 17 June 2022 is possibly in the vicinity of more than 1,229 persons – bringing the estimated total number to anywhere between 2,458 to 3,687 infected people spread out over the 7 local government areas.

COVID-19 & Influenza State of Play 2022: NSW on 10 June 2022 and over the 4 weeks before that at state and local government level

 

SARS-CoV-2 & VARIANTS/COVID-19

According to the World Health Organisation, currently the only SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) is Omicron B.1.1.529. This designation includes BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.4, BA.5 and descendent lineages. It also includes BA.1/BA.2 circulating recombinant forms such as XE.

As of Monday 23 May 2022, the national Communicable Diseases Genomics Network (CDGN) VoC Working Group has downgraded B.1.617.2 (Delta) to a Variant of Interest. No Delta sequences having been identified from samples collected in the 12 weeks to 23 May. Previously on 31 January 2022 Alpha, Beta and Gamma variants were de-escalated from VoCs. The only current Variant of Concern within Australia is Omicron B.1.1.529 and sub-lineages BA.

By 6 June 2022 CDGN - Aus Trakka had reported that public health laboratories had identified 10,066 B.1.1.529 genetic sequences in the New South Wales.

According to NSW Health, as at 4pm on 10 June 2022 there were 85,665 active confirmed COVID-19 cases across the state, with 1,219 hospitalised of which 41 were in intensive care including 14 requiring ventilation. In the 24 hours up to 4pm on 10 June 24 people had died as a result of COVID-19 infection.

In the last four weeks to 4pm 10 June 2022 NSW Health has recorded 92,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 across the state. However this is an incomplete record of the number of person who actually contracted COVID-19 as NSW Health only records the results of Polymerase Chain Reaction tests (PCR) and omits results of Rapid Antigen tests (RAT).

Blacktown Local Government Area recorded 5,074 confirmed cases and Central Coast Local Government Area 4,157 confirmed cases in those 4 weeks.

The following local government areas (LGAs) recorded over 2,000 and under 4,000 confirmed COVID-19 during this period:

Bayside, Campbelltown, Canterbury-Bankstown, Central Coast, Cumberland, Georges River, Inner West, Ku-ring-gai, Lake Macquarie, Liverpool, Northern Beaches, Parramatta, Penrith, Ryde, Sutherland Shire, Sydney, The Hills Shire and Wollongong.

Those LGAs which recorded confirmed COVID-19 cases numbering between 1,000 but below 2,000 during this period were:

Camden, Canada Bay, Dubbo Regional, Hornsby, Maitland, Newcastle, Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional, Randwick and Shoalhaven.

When it comes to the 7 local government areas comprising the NSW Northern Rivers region, in the four weeks to 10 June 2022 the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases recorded were:

Tweed Shire – 512 cases

Kyogle Shire – 19 cases

Lismore City – 208 cases

Byron Shire – 111 cases

Ballina Shire – 279 cases

Richmond Valley – 148 cases

Clarence Valley – 124 cases.

TOTAL 1,401

Remembering of course that all these figures are a significant under reporting by NSW Health because the Perrottet Coalition Government ceased to care about accurate public health recording by the last quarter of 2021.

For North Coast Voices readers who live in NSW LGAs I have not mentioned, a full list is at:

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-local.aspx.

INFLUENZA

According to the Australian Dept. Of Health, in the year to 5 June 2022, there have been 87,989 notifications of laboratory-confirmed influenza. Some 47,860 of these notifications had a diagnosis date in the last two weeks up to 5 June.

These numbers represents a national notification rate of 341.8 per 100,000 population.

There have been 27 influenza-associated deaths notified to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS).

Since commencement of seasonal surveillance in April 2022, there have been 733 hospital admissions due to influenza reported across sentinel hospitals sites, of which 6.1% (est. 45 people) were admitted directly to an Intensive Care Unit.

People aged 5–19 years and children aged younger than 5 years have the highest influenza notification rates.

In the year to first week of June 2022 NSW Health has recorded est. 44,080 Influenza cases in New South Wales.

From 1 January to 31 May 2022 there were only 635 Influenza cases officially recorded in the NSW Northern Rivers region.

Last Newspoll of the 2022 federal election campaign

The Australian, Newspoll, published evening of 20 May2022
Click on image to enlarge

Primary Vote Percentages

Labor - 36 (down 2)

Coalition - 35 (no change)

Greens - 12 ( up 1) 

One Nation - 5 (down 1)

United Australia Party - 3 (no change)

Others - 8 (no change)

Two Party Preferred Percentages 

Labor - 53 (down 1)

Coalition - 47 (up 1) 

If the election had been held on 20 May 2022 then it is likely Labor would have won government with est. 80 seats to the Coalition's est. 65 seats.

However, this prediction is based on 2019 preference flows and the list of independent & minor party candidates was not as long in that federal general election nor the public appetite seemingly so strong for unaligned candidates.

It's far too early to count Australia's 2022 federal election chickens

Since 13 February 2022 there have been 11 voter intention surveys published by the four major political survey companies – Newspoll, Ipsos, Resolve and Morgan Research.

None of these 11 surveys predicts that the Morrison Government will get re-elected in 2022.

However, investing in the idea that surveys indicate exactly what est.17,228,900 voters will decide as their pencils hover over ballot papers is dangerous for all concerned.

Nothing is a foregone conclusion. Every voter needs to make a well considered choice, because every voter has to live with the consequences of their vote.

On Saturday 18 May 2019 the national electorate went to polling booths all around Australia to elect a federal government.

The Australian, 8 May 2022
Click on image to enlarge

The day before “The Australian” newspaper published a Newspoll voter intention survey result which indicated that there was a 3 percentage point difference between Labor and the Coalition which – given the consistent poll results since 4 February 2018 favouring Labor – was considered by many political pundits to firm up the likelihood that Labor would form government the next day.

That didn’t happen. The Liberal-Nationals Coalition formed government with 77 out of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives, leaving the Labor Party Party holding 68 seats, Independents 3 and The Greens, Centre Alliance & Katter’s Australia Party all holding one seat each.

Right now the nation is just 11 days out from the 21 May 2022 federal election and, since 27 June 2021 consecutive Newspolls have developed a wide gap between Labor and the Coalition similar to the gaps that existed on Newspoll graphs in the lead up to the 2019 election.

Thirteen days out from the 2022 federal election there was an 8 percentage point difference in Labor’s favour in the Newspoll survey published last Sunday.

Expect the difference to tighten as election day gets closer.

Expect the predominately right-wing mainstream media (with a few shining exceptions) to take leave of its collective senses over the next 11 days as it fights to keep Scott Morrison in government.

Australian Federal Election 2022: it seems we live in interesting times.

 

IMAGE: The Australian, 18 April 2022
Click on image to enlarge

Another Newspoll was published by The Australian on 18 April 2022.  

The results were as follows......

Survey of Federal Election Voting Intentions

First Preference:

Labor – 36% (down 1 on10 April poll)

Coalition – 35% (down 1 on10 April poll)

Greens – 12% ( up 2 since10 April poll)

One Nation – 4% (up 1 since 10 April poll)

United Australia Party – 4% (no change since10 April poll)

Others – 9% (down 1 since 10 April poll)

Two Party Preferred:

Labor 53% – (no change since 10 April poll)

Coalition – 47% (no change since 10 April poll)

Better PM:

Scott Morrison – 44% (no change since 10 April poll)

Anthony Albanese – 37% (down 2 since 10 April poll)

Undecided – 19% (up 2 since 10 April poll)

Satisfaction with Leaders Performance:

Scott Morrison – Satisfied 43% (up 1), Dissatisfied 52% (down 2) & Uncommitted est. 5%

Anthony Albanese – Satisfied 37% (down 5), Dissatisfied 51% (up 6) & Uncommitted est. 12%

Net Satisfaction with Leaders Performance:

Scott Morrison – minus 9% (up 3)

Anthony Albanese – minus 14% (down 11)

On the basis of the two party preferred percentage points if an election had been held between 14-17 April 2022 then Labor would have won government, with possibly 80 seats in the House of Representatives to the Coalition’s 65 seats. This is the same outcome predicted by the Newspoll results of 6-9 April, but markedly less favourable to Labor than the Newspoll survey results of  31 March-3 April.

Resolve Strategic-9 Entertainment released the results of a limited voter intention survey on Sunday 17 April 2022, which had primary voting intention coming in at Coalition 35% to Labor 34%. Poll Bludger ran the 2019 Two Party Preferred data against those percentages & the outcome went Labor 52% to Coalition 48%. Which means that if an election had been held between 11-16 April Labor would likely have won with 9 seat lead in the House of Representatives. This was somewhat awkward for those editors, commentators & journalists who had initially been predicting an outright win for Morrison on the basis of that particular survey.

Newspoll results show the Morrison Government losing ground since 27 June 2021 and Labor in positive Two Party Preferred territory across the same period. Enthusiasm for Scott Morrison as “Preferred PM” has been gradually falling since 21 February 2021 but Anthony Albanese has been lagging behind Morrison on this particular indicator in all but one Newspoll during the same period. In itself “Preferred PM” is not a stand alone indicator of success at a federal election and party leaders do go on to win government will less than stellar approval numbers.

However, mainstream media is reporting a record number of “Independent” candidates registering for the coming federal election and, on social media platforms there is some anecdotal evidence of strong support for such candidates and for The Greens. If predictive percentages tighten ahead of election day, this support may translate into more than 6 House of Representative seats going to Independents/minor parties and it is possible that neither of the two major parties will achieve an outright majority at the 21 May federal election. 

Four of these independent candidates have stated a willingness to enter into talks with Scott Morrison if citizens' ballot papers do not deliver him a clear majority - 51.5% of the national vote. These candidates are; Zoe Daniel (Ind Goldstein Vic), Allegra Spender (Ind Wentworth NSW), Sophie Scamps (Ind Mackellar NSW) and Kate Chaney (Ind Curtin WA). 

It seems we are living in interesting times.